Jim Edmonds was a terrific player, a borderline Hall of Famer. He had a stretch of five straight seasons with a wOBA over .400 and if that doesn’t make you say, Wow!, you should know that Yoenis Cespedes had a .394 wOBA last year with the Mets. Edmonds was a better offensive player five consecutive years than Cespedes was in his often-marveled-about two months last year with the Mets.
That’s all well and good but why bring up Edmonds in a blog about the Mets? It will make sense in a minute. Meanwhile, as good of a player as Edmonds was, he had a reputation that just wasn’t grounded in reality. Conventional Wisdom said that Edmonds was a terrific defensive center fielder. That reputation was made thanks to his penchant for diving catches. The issue was that other center fielders would make those plays standing up and get to balls that Edmonds simply couldn’t reach.
Edmonds had style while others had range.
He played the majority of his career before 2002, when we begin to get advanced defensive numbers. Defense peaks earlier than offense, so when we look at his defensive numbers starting in 2002, we’re very likely not seeing him when he was at his best, which is good because in those eight years, Edmonds had a (-6) DRS in the outfield.
Still, his reputation helped him win four Gold Glove Awards between 2002-2005.
If all you went on was how someone looked playing the position then Edmonds earned those Gold Gloves. He always hustled, he made few errors and he willingly gave up his body to make a play. What else could you possibly want?
Which brings us to Asdrubal Cabrera.
Muck like Edmonds looked like a center fielder, Cabrera looks like a shortstop. He makes few errors, catches everything he gets to and makes strong, accurate throws to first. After watching a guy last year where every throw was an adventure, Cabrera seems like a great defensive shortstop. He passes the eye test with flying colors.
But ideally your shortstop gets to more balls.
Last night there was a ball hit to short. Cabrera was shaded towards second and was unable to make a play on it and two runs scored. In a 7-1 game, it didn’t end up making much difference. But it happened recently and it’s instructive to the issues Cabrera has. The elite shortstops in the game would have reached that ball and made a throw to first, where they might have gotten the runner and ended the inning with no runs scored. But a majority of the shortstops would have reached the ball and kept it from going to the outfield and saved a run from scoring.
But because no error was made, the majority of people view it as some combination of a failure of the pitcher and a success of the batter. The play of the shortstop doesn’t enter into their internal calculations. It’s great to recognize the plays that a defender makes. But you have to take into account the ones he doesn’t, too.
With great defensive shortstops in the NL like Nick Ahmed, Brandon Crawford and Freddy Galvis, Cabrera is in no jeopardy of being awarded a Gold Glove. But while he won’t be nationally overrated he still will be locally overrated. And that’s something to keep in mind.
FanGraphs has a defensive source called Inside Edge. Here numbers are broken down by how likely a player is to have made a play. On routine balls, defined as plays made 90-100 percent of the time, Cabrera makes the play this year 98.9 percent of the times. On likely plays, those made 60-90 percent of the time, Cabrera makes the play 83.3 percent of the time. He makes these plays and performs at an above-average rate, too, assuming a normal distribution.
But on 21 balls where the play is not so easy, he’s made two. Ahmed has made five plays in 20 chances here. Last year Wilmer Flores had 49 of these chances at shortstop and made nine plays and everyone thought the team needed a defensive upgrade at the position.
Usually, we’ll cite UZR. That particular metric views Flores’ fielding more positively than the rest. So let’s use DRS here. In 835.2 innings at short last year, Flores had a (-10) DRS, which is not good. This year in 329.1 innings at short, Cabrera has a (-3) DRS. Cabrera has played about 40% of the innings that Flores did. Prorated to Flores’ innings total, Cabrera would have around a (-7.5) DRS. So why is it that Flores gets panned while Cabrera gets praised?
Because Cabrera looks like a shortstop while Flores looks like a fawn just taking its first steps.
Maybe you don’t care about defense. Okay, let’s look at offense. Cabrera got off to a great start and after the game on April 26, he had a .319/.382/.420 line. That’s terrific production and one everyone should be happy to get from their shortstop. Unfortunately, it came with a .382 BABIP, a mark unlikely to be carried forward. Since then, in his last 20 games, Cabrera has a .293 BABIP and a .642 OPS. That’s sub-par performance. NL shortstops overall have amassed a .715 OPS and that includes Erick Aybar and his .412 OPS, a mark that makes 1972 Bud Harrelson look like a slugger.
Cabrera’s not a problem. He gives you a guy you know is going to make the routine play at short without fail and he’s not a zero with the bat, either. He’s steady. That’s not a putdown in any way, shape or form.
But he’s not a great defensive shortstop and if you think he is, you’re kidding yourself. He’s below average because he has poor range and that’s confirmed by every defensive system out there. Also, Cabrera needs an elevated BABIP to be an average hitter for the position. Right now he has a .720 OPS, slightly ahead of the .715 league mark for the position. But he’s needed a .336 BABIP to achieve that and that’s 28 points above his career mark and 38 points above the MLB average here in 2016.
There’s a lot of season left to play and it’s still very much up in the air what Cabrera’s final numbers will look like, on both sides of the ball. Overall, he’s been performing more or less as expected. Our preseason forecast was for a .255/.315/.405 and he’s given a .280/.335/.385 triple slash line. He’s delivered a better average but without quite as much slugging as we anticipated. Hopefully the power comes once the weather warms up and his BABIP regresses.
But if he continues to look good playing, no doubt people will continue to sing his praises, regardless of what the actual results are. George Hamilton, Fernando Lamas and bubbleheaded bleach blondes everywhere nod in agreement.
Brian,
I love stats…I hate these defensive Stats. I find them “possibly subjective”.
My Question: who and How?—that is, who says a play is “hard to make”… how is that defined?
I’ve been watching Cabrera and I’m generally Pleased with his defensive play— the double play he turned on the ball that Fatso threw in the dirt… “Hard Play”? I thought is was a really nice play…
…your predisposition seems to be that the guy is a Marginal defender— offseason, you pretty much expressed that he’s a lateral from Flores….. I’ve watched the Guy… yes!—restricted range. Good Position. Great Hands. Great Throws. Makes every single play. “Looks like a SS!!!” The Mets booth seems to concur.
I expected him to be a Professional SS….not a lot more. He’s been professional, and I’ve been upside surprised by several plays that He made that looked “Hard” to me.
So…if you and I are keeping the Stats, isn’t the “Hard Play” somewhat colored by our respective disposition on the player?
It’s a decent concept, but it doesn’t seem a wholly objective stat—therefore, very much it is just another “Eye test”….but it’s parading as a stat.
I agree – he’s been a professional shortstop.
That’s a lot different from the praise that I regularly hear from others. More than one person — note the plural, not singling out one particular person in one particular forum but rather what I’ve seen repeated numerous times at various sites.
If you’re interested in a definition of the terms, go to FanGraphs and check the glossary. They should have a full article on the process.
Hard Hit Balls… Hard Plays… these are “Stats” that are bend by predisposition… no?
So … “Professional Shortstop” — we can agree on that terminology. I’d stand with the position that it’s a big upgrade over Wilmer… he’s not a professional Shortstop. Wilmer’s SS Defense is somehwere between Kevin Mitchell and Hojo. No Insult—I’m comparing him to their 1986 versions, not their 2016 versions!
Please Brian. It is obvious as can be Cabrera is a million times better than what we have had at short since the departure of Reyes. And that is awesome for this team. Maybe you dont love his range, and sure, esp to his right more could be had, but he is a constant force of doing well on more than balls hit to him. He positions well, ranges left pretty good, comes in ok, throws excellent, and is solid both dishing and receiving/throwing on the DP. I might add he looks good fielding texas leaguers as well. All the defensive metrics in the world wont change that. Is he a GG SS? no. But I no longer get the shivers on balls drilled to ss.
No, it’s not obvious at all.
Look, a ball hit right to Cabrera results in an out with no drama. No argument there. A ball hit to Flores and we all hold our collective breath. No argument there. But the bumbling, stumbling fool was able to turn it into an out on a regular basis. And you don’t get style points. At the end of the day, what really matters is getting outs and saving runs.
Subjectively, Cabrera is much better. Objectively, the difference is tiny, if it exists at all. Let’s compare the results once Cabrera reaches 835 or so innings and see how he compares versus 2015 Flores.
Thats frankly preposterous. He has far better range than a ball “hit right to him”. I guess you are watching different games than the rest of us, and certainly shows the defensive metrics evaluations are practically worthless, not to mention a long distance from”objective”.
Brian… I’m a Stat Guy, but the Wilmer Flores vs. Cabrera “Defensive Metrics Hill” is simply not worthy of you dying on it!!!
I’m not dying on anything.
However, I am tired of hearing how great Cabrera is defensively. He looks good at the position but his results are essentially the same as the bumbling, stumbling Flores. Anyone who thinks he’s vastly superior — and again there are numerous people who hold this position and I’m not thinking of any one person in particular — merely values style over substance.
What you call style, others call lack of pressure. Every time Flores throws Duda needs to prepare for battle. Cabrera puts it mostly on his chest. Thats real important even of the outcome is the same because it reduces the opportunity for tragedy at every corner. Not every single is a single, and neither is every throw to first or DP turned. Anything system that ends up calling Cabrera and Flores the same is clearly measuring poorly. And just because a number can be hung on it does not make it objective.
I’m sorry that you don’t like the output. And I know you know full well that the fact that it has a number is not what makes it objective but rather the process by which the number is derived.
Brian—“Who” determines “Hard Play”???… c’mon…it’s subjective
I’ve seen Cabrera make several Plays that punked me with the Mental Note, ” Flores wouldn’t have made that play”.,,,, the double play turn last night was one such play.
Cabrera has Slow Legs… but he has quick feet, great hands, and a fantastic ability to throw.
So… the “process” starts with a guy like you or me saying, “Wow!…nice Play”….with the “other guy” says, “Pshh… that’s not such a hard play.
I think it’s a “Stat” that tracks a Subjective Reaction— Like a Gymnast’s Score, it’s very much about the Judge>
Brian!!!…you’re The Russian Judge!!!!! 😉
Did you read the glossary?
Just wondering if DRS takes positioning into consideration. “Professional” shortstops like Cabrera may be better at positioning themselves so they don’t have to exhibit great range.
I believe the “shift dynamic” actually plays well as a modern version of “experience and positioning”— and some of that was historical waxy nonsense.
Still…a well positioned player with good Glove and arm skills can be a decent defender.
DRS calculates shift runs on a team rate. So, the Mets have a team DRS of (-17) but their individual players add up to (-16).
At this point, the number of players who decide where to play, rather than the team dictating where they play, is very small, possibly zero.
Yeah…. Absolutely
I think there’s a problem with overuse of the shift relative to the natural strengths of pitchers. versus the need to pitch to the shift exclusively.
One comment: I don’t believe there’s an overwhelming narrative out there that says Cabrera is a great or even very good defensive SS. So from my point of view, you are reacting against a perspective that does not exist in informed corners. Maybe there’s some idiots out there who think Cabrera is “great,” but who cares.
He lacks range, and range matters, absolutely. But in every other regard, he’s been a quality defensive shortstop. When the Mets signed him, the overwhelming story was that he was a disaster at shortstop — and very possibly not even worthy of playing the position anymore. In general, I think folks who have now been able to watch have come away relieved and impressed. He’s not anywhere near that bad.
But again, I do think he needs rest. 33 is not young for the SS position. Those legs need to stay fresh. Mets need more of Wilmer Flores, all over the field, and they need Flores to actually be good when he’s out there — or they need to make a change to the bench, soon.
Cabrera is 30 but I agree he should be rested when the team doesn’t get a day off in ten days. All position players should (unless their hot).Your last comment regarding Flores is spot on.
To weigh in on the subject, Cabrera has been everything I have expected with no complaints from this fan.