When Sandy Alderson took over as Mets General Manager before the 2011 season, it was common thinking that the farm system was in shambles. It was, for the most part, at least in terms of both high-end talent and depth. That’s not to say that Omar Minaya didn’t leave the team with some gems, however. A good chunk of this current Mets team consists of players Minaya drafted and signed as international free agents, including Matt Harvey, Lucas Duda, Steven Matz, Jacob deGrom, and Jeurys Familia.
Even so, high on Alderson’s to-do list at the start of his tenure was to replenish the farm system through drafting, trades, and the international free agent market. The rebuild that never was quite a true rebuild ensured, unfortunately, that the Mets were never bad enough to get a top pick. Still, Alderson and his team had a pick near the top ten in his first four drafts from 2011 through 2014. The only one of those picks to reach the majors so far is the last one in 2014 pick Michael Conforto.
There are two main reasons for this seemingly anomalous turn of events. First, Conforto was even better than advertised and rocketed his way up to the majors with just over a full year in the minor leagues. The fact that he was already a polished college hitter had much to do with this, of course, but his true talent has led him to become the Mets number three hitter with less than two years of professional experience. Second, Alderson’s first three picks have been generally underwhelming so far in their minor league careers and haven’t quite lived up to first-round expectations.
To be fair, each of Alderson’s first three picks were all high schoolers: Brandon Nimmo in 2011, Gavin Cecchini in 2012, and Dominic Smith in 2013. The team was certainly playing the long game with these picks, and it was understood that they would take some time to develop. While they’ve made it to the upper levels of the minors, they’re certainly not knocking down the major league door.
It’s easy to forget how young these guys are, though. It feels like Nimmo in particular has been with the organization for forever, but he’s still just 23 years old and just starting his first full season in AAA. His season got off to a rough start after he partially tore a tendon in his left foot and he struggled a bit out of the gate. He’s come on strong in his last ten games, slashing .375/.500/.675 with four doubles, four triples, ten walks and just five strikeouts.
His overall OPS of .828 is just outside the top 30 in the Pacific Coast League (PCL). Even though we need to take offensive stats in the PCL with a grain of salt, it’s very encouraging to see him starting to flourish a bit. The conventional thinking is that Nimmo is not a major league center fielder, however, so it will be interesting to see where he ends up in the Mets’ plans. He may be a fourth outfielder in the end, especially with his inability to translate batting practice power into games, but his ability to get on base has been his calling card and may ultimately be what makes or breaks his potential as a table setter in the majors.
Cecchini, 22, opened the season in his first stint at AAA, though he’s lost some time early with an injury. The 2015 season was deemed a breakout season for the young shortstop, and the hope was that he would follow it up with a strong showing in the PCL. As with Nimmo, his overall numbers are pulled down just a bit after a slow start while over his last ten games he’s turned it up. Over those ten games he’s slashed .378/.410/.514 with six doubles. The production has come with a bit of an up-tick in strikeouts (he had seven over those last ten games), but he’s clearly seeing the ball well.
With Asdrubal Cabrera signed through 2017, and with Matt Reynolds and Wilmer Flores as options in case of injury, Cecchini will get time to continue his development without the need for a premature call-up. He, like Nimmo, will very likely have to wait until September to see any major league action this season, but if he can continue showing improvement it’s not out of the question that he may be legitimately competing for the starting shortstop job during Spring Training 2017.
The youngest of the trio, Smith has arguably been the most successful. Soon to be 21 years old, he’s already seeing success at AA while being promoted slightly more aggressively than Nimmo and Cecchini. The biggest knock on Smith in his young career as a first baseman has been his lack of in-game power. Though some are confident that his plus-power potential will eventually manifest itself when it counts, others have shown concern by its absence. His .271/.309./406 slash is not all that sexy, but he’s more than holding his own in his first taste of AA. As for power, his four home runs is already more than half-way to his 2015 total of six in about a third of the plate appearances.
Smith has a clearer path to the majors than either Cecchini or Nimmo, with Duda having (perhaps mistakenly with news of his injury) turned down a contract extension last spring and set to become a free agent after the 2017 season. A successful 2016 in AA would propel him to AAA in 2017 and, maybe, a shot at the starting first baseman job in 2018.
Each of these first-rounders came with question marks at the time of their selection but chock-full of promise. Nimmo probably has the most to prove this season as he’s yet to really come close to what his raw talent suggested he might become. Cecchini and especially Smith have time yet, but they’ll need to show continued progress if they hope to silence the naysayers. Fair or not, first-round status comes with its own set of expectations and Alderson’s first three picks haven’t quite lived up to them. Strong seasons will keep them on prospect lists and, more importantly, on a path to helping fill holes in the major league lineup that will seemingly coincide perfectly with their expected development arcs.
Uh, Rob, it’s somewhat unfair to say that Cecchini and Smith especially have been unwhelming considering both had breakout seasons last year. Smith especially being a 20 yr old in high A was named player of the year and is now one of the younest players in tne EL. Nimmo has most certainly is still a work in progress.
Understood. Cecchini was also named Eastern League Rookie of the Year last year, so they’ve had some amount of success in the minors. The context here was their first-rounder status and the expectations that come with it.
To be fair, like all other prospects, most first-round prospects don’t turn into anything special. They just cost more.
I like Cecchini and I do think he has a major league future. It’s very clear that the “low-ceiling/high-floor” description he had at draft time was apt, though, so I am a bit concerned that his best may just be utility player. Smith, I still have pretty high hopes for at this point.
Unfortunately Rob, I think people tend to think of the NFL draft when looking at the MLB Draft. There are so many more mitigating factors such as age, make up, injury. . Since baseball is more of a skill sport, I just think more can go wrong when it comes to player develoment.
Agreed. Which is what makes Nimmo in particular such an interesting case because of his background. What other player has had that weird mix of talent, potential, and lack of competitive baseball experience before the draft and went so high? It’ll be interesting to see how long the Mets hang on to him if he takes even longer than hoped.
Why are we talking about first baseman in 2018?
We need to dump these guys,how about Dom Smit ad bump and maybe a picture for Freddie Freeman.
A fair assessment of these three. Certainly not great picks.
Nimmo was the plate discipline pick, the type of hitter that the new regime was eager to champion. If he’s not a CFer — and I think it’s safe to say that he’s not a very good one — then that puts more pressure on his offensive game. The lack of HR power in Las Vegas is a worry. Also that he struggles against LHP, to the tune of possibly not being an everyday player. I used to hope that his upside was Shawn Green after the shoulder injury (that is, not the 50 HR guy, but the 20 HR guy). Now I wonder if he’s maybe shooting to become Nick Markakis without the top glove. Which is too bad, because I’ve never much liked Nick Markakis (no pop).
I don’t know yet about Cecchini and Smith. Cecchini always seemed to have a low ceiling, and therefore was a weird 1st round pick. If all pistons fire correctly, I think he could be a decent ML shortstop, utility guy.
I’m not ready to write in Smith’s name as the Mets starting 1B in 2017, though I am ready to let Lucas Duda walk. Not that I don’t appreciate Duda, just that I think he’ll soon be entering his “overpaid” years. Not a guy I need to give a big contract. With the current Mets offense, I find myself wishing for a hitter with the profile of Smith. Less HRs, but more consistent bat.
For all three, we just don’t know yet, but the clues are piling up.
The hourglass is definitely starting to run thin on any hope for a starting role for Nimmo. I agree, if they don’t think he’s a center fielder then he’s got a longer way to go than we thought. One thing that I do think should be taken into consideration is the fact that Nimmo, based on his history, has “late bloomer” written all over him. Your Jayson Werths of the world. We’ll see, but I’d hate for them to give up on him entirely at too soon a stage.
Nimmo – I liked this pick when it was made. The Mets went for upside, a nice departure from the Jason Tyner and Eddie Kunz types. He’s not going to hit that upside. Still has a chance for a career. His strong recent hitting extends longer than 10 games, though. Has a .361/.451/.577 line in his last 24 games. It’s mostly BABIP, though.
Cecchini – Didn’t like this pick at all when it was made. Started to turn things around with the bat late in the 2014 season. With Cabrera ahead of him and Rosario behind him, doesn’t seem to have a future with the Mets. I’m guessing he gets dealt at the trade deadline.
Smith – Had no strong feelings either way when this pick was made. He’s been good, no reason for people to be unhappy with what he’s given the team so far. Still, I prefer my first basemen to be bashers.
So, with four first rounders, Alderson has gotten one guy already in the majors who looks like a potential star and three guys who all seem likely to be make the majors. That seems pretty good to me, for drafting 10-13.
The Padres are probably the team with the closest draft positions to compare. Here’s how they did, with overall pick in parentheses:
2011 – Corey Spanenberg (10) – Reached majors, looks like solid backup/utility
2012 – Max Fried (7) – Struggling in Double-A, question mark to reach majors
2013 – Hunter Renfroe (13) – Hitting good in Triple-A, likely to reach majors
2014 – Trea Turner (13) – Hitting good in Triple-A, likely to reach majors
Turner has star potential, Renfroe has a shot at being a starter. Pretty similar to the Mets’ haul but I prefer what the Mets have. I’d take Conforto and Smith over Turner and Renfroe.
Semantics, but I’m not sure you can criticize “The Pick” in any of these situations…the outcome, the player….that’s what’s in play.
All of these guys have advanced…all of them seem headed for some level of MLB “Shot”. That seems to be a good outcome, itself!
Conforto can be a Star…the rest of the ride is up to him. Cheech looks like he’ll have a career…and who knows? Nimmo is a bit more questionable, but he’s been a productive/advance toi the next level guy all along. The Kid at AA is interesting…..he’s a nice AA player at 20.
It doesn’t seem to be the easiest thing to draft OBP players who will actually be able to survive in the major leagues. Dykstra did work out that way, of course, but he was a speed/plate discipline/power combo, which gave him several paths to succeed. If it turns out you really can’t do any damage with the bat, having a good eye alone won’t save your career
Nimmo was an ….interesting pick. Not nearly as interesting as Jason Tyner, though. Now there was an interesting pick, the boy with the soda straw arms, a pick that should have gotten someone fired.
I think the idea that Nimmo was an OBP guy is misguided. From Perfect Game:
“What they’ve seen is a very talented all-around athlete with surprisingly-polished hitting skills from the left side. Nimmo has very advanced barrel skills, squares up pitches consistently and can drive them to the gaps. His easy stride and plus speed (Nimmo is a Wyoming indoor state track champion) result in numerous doubles and triples now that should evolve into home runs in the future as he fills out and gets stronger. His polish with the bat is the one thing that scouts have repeatedly remarked on this spring after seeing Nimmo.”
http://www.perfectgame.org/Players/PlayerProfile_Events.aspx?ID=267193
That quote means nothing to me. Yes, of course they thought he could hit; he’s a first-round pick. But when SA arrived, along w/ Hudgins, the mission was to change the culture of “the approach.” It became the big thing in the entire organization. Working deep counts, etc. And a lot of that made sense. But that was the context when the Mets drafted Nimmo, their first overall pick, a player noted for his “advanced approach” bordering on passivity at the plate. The kid fit the mold of what they were looking for in ball players. Not a to play pick, not an “athletic” pick. He’s a looker and potentially a high OBP player — especially if the pop comes.
He was thought to be a potential five-tool pick when drafted and to suggest otherwise now is revisionist history. The Mets take plenty of guys whose best attribute is their plate discipline. Nimmo does not fit this category.
Of course, the great thing about Lenny was he loaded up on Steroids. From a scout/evaluation standpoint, it’s just so hard to predict who is going to transform themselves through PEDS.
Well, I wonder exactly when he did that. My own memory says that it was Winter of 1986-87; as I recall it, the announcers said that Lenny looked like he had an extra set of shoulders on top of his shoulders that following spring.
Prior to that he had looked pretty damn good in the field, too; and he stole about a hundred bases one year in the minors. Who knows when he juiced up, but it’s my belief that steroids didn’t get him to the majors; instead it was something he did to add to his output once he was there. But: who knows.
Taking all all three picks into account, and where they are at this moment in time, I agree that they were a pretty good group of selections, especially considering Conforto was the highest they got at 10.
I actually really, really liked the Nimmo pick. It could have been that change in draft tactics and going for upside like you said, though.
I still think Smith can turn the power on, and I’m hoping the early signs here point to a little more in-game pop.
Interesting. Great recap on the three 1st rounders still in the minors. Is it too early to get a first impression of the 2015 picks? It seems the Mets went heavy on high school players again. To me, that seems like a risky strategy unless they have supreme confidence in their own ability to develop the raw talent. IMHO, it’s a safer bet to pick up the more polished college players. I realize that Conforto helps make my case, but I also realize that he’s not an ordinary pick, but arguably and extraordinary one.
Thanks, Bull. Yeah it’s a bit early on the 2015 guys, but there’s some positive results already. Max Wotell, one of the HS pitchers they drafted in the 3rd round had some success in a short stint in the GCL last year. Their second round pick, high schooler CF Desmond Lindsay (a pick I really liked) had a great stint in the GULF league last year as well. The problem here is that the high school players only got their bit of rookie ball in last season and won’t start again until later this summer, so there’s not much to go on.
The college bat they did draft early in third baseman David Thompson has had a pretty good year in Columbia. David Grovemen has written about him a few times this year already. Unfortunately they did not have a first-rounder last year after giving it up to sign Michael Cuddyer.
I believe the team does actually pick the player they believe to be the best on the board at the time, though it doesn’t feel that way sometimes. It may be that they swing and miss completely or see something we don’t see. The Conforto pick was crazy in that it lined up absolutely perfectly with what the team needed, when they needed it, and he came along fast and right when the team could use him.
All three have something to prove. All three are not the best player on their team. To doesn’t appear that any of the three are going to be impact major league players. The results that Herrera, Becerra, Rosario and Thompson are putting up make me think that the future starting Mets will be these players and not the three first round picks.