The Mets offense has, despite a six-run outburst yesterday against the Marlins, obviously been struggling to score over the last month or so. In fact, their 87 total runs in the month of May was better than only the back-to-earth Phillies and the awful Braves. Their 14-15 record for the month, as unimpressive as it appears, was only made possible by a pitching staff that allowed the fourth fewest runs (107) during May.
It’s been rough, to say the least, and the slumping lineup took another tough hit yesterday with news of David Wright‘s expected absence of at least six weeks due to herniated disks in his neck. His addition to the list of injuries that have essentially crippled the lineup, with Lucas Duda and Travis d’Arnaud currently out on extended absences, means more playing time to players that probably should not even be on a major league roster.
All of the injuries and a weakened lineup have the residual effect of putting more pressure on the starters struggling to keep the team afloat. One struggling player in particular has been getting a lot of attention recently: second-year outfielder Michael Conforto.
Over his last ten games he’s 5-36 with 14 strikeouts and four walks. That’s pretty rough, but if we take a look at his numbers overall for the whole month of May it’s even worse. In 24 games in May, Conforto slashed .169/.242/.349 with a .250 wOBA and a wRC+ of just 63. Sure, his .189 BABIP suggests some amount of bad luck for the month. However, he also popped up slightly more while hitting the ball towards center (and going the opposite way less) with a fairly significant reduction in his hard hit rate (-13.1%) than he was during the season’s first month. He walked about the same, though he struck out more.
He’s clearly not seeing the ball very well, but is there some underlying reason for his extended slump? One possible reason, suggested by Conforto himself while speaking to Newsday, is that he’s “…just getting away from my approach, going out of the zone.” Do the numbers match the claim? Well, his O-Swing% for the month of April was 20.3%. In May it was 27.5%, a clear upswing in his offers at pitches outside of the zone. He also saw less contact on those pitches outside the zone in May than in April (61.5% vs 49.1%).
Is the increase in swings outside of the zone the result of pitchers giving him less to work with in an attempt to cool him off? In April the percent of pitches he saw in the strike zone was 45.8%. In May that remained a steady 45.2%. Additionally, his contact rate on pitches in the strike zone remained relatively unchanged in May (87.5%) compared to April (89.5%). So, no, at least as it pertains to the percentage of pitches within the strike zone.
The general approach to him, however, seemingly changed a bit in May. While he saw a similar amount of fastballs, pitchers threw him more breaking balls (sliders and curves, specifically) at the expense of throwing him changeups. This is significant because for the season he’s hitting .150 against sliders, .071 against curves, and .320 against changes. Additionally, they threw him more first-pitch strikes in May (59.3%) than in April (51.2%). This isn’t relegated to only this season, either. For his career, Conforto is hitting .205 against sliders, .061 against curves, and .292 against changeups.
So, yes, he’s not seeing the ball as well as he was early in the season. However, pitchers have clearly adjusted to an apparent weakness in his game. It’s on Conforto to work on that aspect of his game and make the required adjustments if he wants to see continued success. The lineup, with it’s continued inability to stay healthy, certainly needs him to do that.
It was great that the Mets won, last night, all their runs were produced by Homers, again. Not really complaining about that. But since spring training, this team has taken not advantage of runners in scoring position. It seems to me the hitter’s have become too selective in their choice of pitches leading to a high amount of strike outs. Umpires have also generously widened the strike zone, trying to put more pressure on hitters to swing. Each game no matter who is pitching against the Mets, whether its an elite pitcher or some “AAAA” scrub pitcher they manages to strike out at least 10 Mets batters. The hitter are looking for the long ball instead of going with the pitch. As a fan I find these high amount of strike outs frustrating. This trend is happening all around baseball, but the Mets seem to be a little more afflicted than other teams. Just voicing my opinion, and frustration as a fan.
When you fail to resign your best contact hitter, and let him go to your major competitor, it is not a sign of rewarding your players that they should use his approach.
Yesterday during the game, they mentioned that pitchers were going inside more against Conforto, too.
Another excellent , factual article. It is presented so well that there is so little to discuss. Conforto and Granderson have not been producing in the last month so maybe it is time to give Lagares some at bats against RHP because he is producing. If you hit, you play philosophy worked last Auugust.