Last year Sandy Alderson made a bunch of moves to address the current team and one of those was to acquire Addison Reed to help nail down the seventh inning of games. It was not a move without risk, as earlier in the year Reed had not only lost his closer’s job but had been sent to the minors due to ineffectiveness. He had a 5.92 ERA when he was sent down. The trip to the minors apparently cured what ailed him, as Reed has been a different pitcher since that moment.
Reed appeared in 13 games for the Diamondbacks upon his recall and had a 1.65 ERA and a 1.163 WHIP in 16.1 IP, prompting Alderson to pull the trigger. It was more of the same once he joined the Mets, as Reed appeared in 17 games and posted a 1.17 ERA and a 1.044 WHIP in 15.1 IP. Along with Tyler Clippard, another mid-season acquisition, the Mets now had a reliable bridge to closer Jeurys Familia.
But then came the playoffs and neither Clippard nor Reed was as reliable as they had been during the closing stretch for the Mets. Clippard gave up five runs in 6.2 IP while Reed allowed six runs in 7.0 IP over the three series. What had been a strength turned completely around in the biggest games of the year.
It was an open question what the Mets were going to do with the relievers, as Clippard was a free agent and Reed was arbitration-eligible. The Mets opted to let Clippard walk and offered arbitration to Reed, who eventually signed a $5.3 million deal. After he was busted to the minors earlier in the year and got lit up in the playoffs, it was again a move that was far from a no-brainer.
But Reed is making Alderson look brilliant with how well he’s pitched here in 2016.
Through 28 games, Reed has a 1.75 ERA and a 0.935 WHIP. Coming into the season, there were questions as to the bridge to Familia. Now, it’s crystal clear that if he’s available, Reed is pitching the 8th inning of a close game. Four times already this year, Reed has pitched in three straight games and 11 times he’s pitched in back-to-back days. He went the entire month of May, and three games here in June, without allowing a run.
Reed is posting his highest strikeout rate (11.92 K/9) and lowest walk rate (2.10 BB/9) since his six-game debut back in 2011. The result is a FIP (1.68) that’s even better than his ERA. His xFIP, which takes home run rate into account, checks in at 2.45, three-quarters of a run higher than his ERA but still a very strong mark.
Early on in his career, Reed was a fly ball pitcher. When he saved 40 games for the White Sox back in 2013, he had a 45.4 FB% and the following year it went up to 47.6%. But here in 2016, Reed has just a 32.3 FB%. And as he’s given up fewer flies, he’s also seen his HR/FB rate go down. After posting an elevated 13.9% rate in 2014, Reed has just a 5.0% rate this season.
There have been a couple of noticeable changes for Reed this year. First, he’s throwing mostly fastballs, turning to his heater over 75% of the time. And the other big change is that he’s pouring in first pitch strikes. His F-Strike% of 71.8 is easily a career-best and it’s also the top mark on the team. And when batters take the first pitch against him, they have just a .357 OPS in 70 PA. He’s getting ahead early and showing no mercy once he does.
Most everyone knows who the Mets gave up to get Yoenis Cespedes. And while they may not know his name, they know the Mets gave up the guy with the funky delivery to get Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe. But unless you’re a direct relative, you probably don’t know who the Mets traded to get Reed. Alderson sent Miller Diaz and Matt Koch to Arizona, a trade that has been a slam dunk for the Mets.
Huzzah!
Thanks for penning this Brian. I think Reed has been absolutely an anchor for the 8th, and even could close with confidence.
He clearly likes to start an inning rather than mopping up someone else’s disaster, perhaps stemming from his closer days. Im ok with that.
If Familia settles down, we have as good an 8-9 bridge as there is.
Throughout his career, Reed has been a risky move to bring in with runners on base. But he’s even doing well in that department this year. He’s inherited 11 runners and only one has scored.
I was not overjoyed with the decision to bring him back this year at that salary. But once the money was available to bring back Cespedes, even with the other offseason moves that were already made, the money was no longer such a big concern. Still wasn’t convinced he was a better option than Clippard. Both of the guys have been good this year, so in a way I guess it was a win-win choice. Not too often you get one of those.
Mets will have another decision after this year what to do with him. It will be his final year of arbitration and he’ll get a hefty raise, I’m guessing. Do the Mets want to pay $7 million plus to a setup guy?
Don’t count on him just yet. Relievers are a fickle group and can go from hero to zero just like that (as well as the other way around like Jeanmar Gomez)
I mean, just in the last 2 weeks Familia had his ERA skyrocket from the 2.01 to the mid 3s and Robles had his ERA go from the low 1s to high 3.
I was surprised that the Mets offered him arbitration because of his price. I was more surprised that the Mets had any money to spend. Offering him arbitration was the correct move.
Reed was a good pickup and a smart move. He has been a lock down reliever. It is an advantage that he has closer experience. It is too early in the season to decide if you want him back because like Name says, relievers are fickle. It does appear though, based on the stats that Brian presented, that Reed should be able to sustain his success. Clippard signed for 2/12.25 while our own Mets gave Bastardo a 2/12 so you know it is going to cost more than Bastardo to keep Reed.
Reed is a current bright spot. With the offensive struggles along with the current roster of DL’d players, its nice to have a player performing solidly and exceeding expectations.
Sometimes the price is the price is the price. Cost of doing business.
The Mets don’t have much help on the farm, and they do actually need baseball players.
Sure, there may be cheap solutions out there, but if they don’t work then the team is truly, deeply screwed. Again, look at those rosters in Vegas and Binghamton. It’s not like there are options out there.
Looking at ERA with relievers is a lot like looking at W-L with starting pitchers. It’s a very blunt instrument. The sample size is so small, and the circumstances vary wildly. A bad inning or two can really hurt an ERA, and all we learn is that he isn’t perfect all the time. I like Reed a lot. Great pickup.
I agree that I was not completely on board with the idea of offering him “so much” money in arbitration, but that seemed to be the thinking we’ve been kind of trained to have over the last few years. I’m glad the team spent on him, but we’ll see how he ends the year before deciding whether he’s worth an additional bump.