The Mets entered the 2016 draft with four picks in the first one hundred. The Met farm system has produced some great pitching over the past few years but had no more Matt Harvey’s, Zack Wheeler’s, Jacob deGrom’s, Noah Syndergaard’s or Steven Matz’ to offer up. While the farm does still boast a number of players who could have major league impacts, the pitching had gotten majorly depleted. As no surprise, the Mets acted quickly to correct this issue.
Justin Dunn, RHP: At 6’2” and only 170 Lbs Dunn seems like he’s a little small to be a pitcher. Compare this to the 6’6” 240 Syndergaard and you’ll understand why. Dunn’s size doesn’t quite put him into the category of “Too Small” pitchers like Pedro Martinez though. While his size may be slight, his talent is very large. He boasts a 99 MPH fastball and can sit comfortably in the mid-90s deep into games. Add that he’s got an arsenal that includes three major league breaking pitches and you have the makings of another Met ace. (MLB.com ranked Dunn 29th overall)
Anthony Kay, LHP: He and Matz went to the same high school, in fact, the Mets selected two local kids in 2016 with Dunn and Kay both getting selected. While nothing statistical will jump out about Kay’s stuff, the book on him is pretty positive. He is a workhorse pitcher who uses his baseball smarts to beat opponents. The best thing about Kay is that he’s expected to be able to move up through the minors swiftly. He can throw in the 90s and has three major league offerings that should be enough for him to excel easily through Low-A. (MLB.com ranked Kay 43rd overall)
Peter Alonso, 1B R/R: The Mets continued their plan of drafting college age players to make an impact in the nearer future. Alonso is a bat-first First Baseman who doesn’t have an ounce of speed but, who’s bat may be enough to make it to the majors. Alonso has power and a pretty good swing that should help him rise up through the minors but his limited defense makes his pickup seem like a bit of insurance on Smith. (MLB.com ranked Alonso 65th overall)
Blake Tiberi, 3B L/R: Looking at the Mets’ 100th overall pick, you might be asking why the Mets dove down to select a player like Tiberi. Yet another collegiate player, Tiberi was part of a powerhouse Louisville team. If you only look at some of the scouting on Tiberi you may wonder if MLB.com was wrong to overlook him. He’s got the defense enough to stick at third and hitting that might be far better than his draft rank indicates. The caveat here is that at 5’11” he’s got a physical disadvantage against some larger more powerful players. (MLB.com ranked Tiberi 185th overall)
I don’t follow college baseball and what little knowledge I do have comes from reading others’ reports.
That said, there are a bunch of different numbers floating out there about Dunn. He looks slender in the pictures but how old are they? I saw one site that listed him at 185. Regardless, the hitters tell you if you’re big enough. Dunn played in one of the top two conferences and got better as the season went along. I like the pick. It’s an upside pick, as he has such little experience as a SP.
Turns out the Mets drafted Kay once before so obviously they like what they see. BA projected the Mets to take him, so this was not a surprise pick.
I’m glad they went for a power bat in Alonso. The system could use a guy like that.
There are reports that Tiberi will have to work to remain at 3B. I take them with a grain of salt, as supposedly there was no way Thompson was going to stay at the hot corner and the reports on his defense last year were good.
I’ve seen Dunn listed at 184 for Boston College. That 170 seems old and inaccurate.
Where are this credible, quality reports on Tiberi? I haven’t seen any.
Also think Mets could have and should have done better than Alonso at 64.
I’ve been bitching about how the system doesn’t have as many good pitching prospects, having traded everyone who throw 95+ away. So, this should address that.
If Alonso was a high schooler, I’d say make him a catcher like the Dodgers did with Piazza. But, a college kid doesn’t have the time to learn; his prime years are only four years away. Could he turn out to be another Steve Balboni?
Might this draft class be seen as a variation on the Moneyball theme, meaning, seek out types of players that the market undervalues? I think maybe yes.
We have two top picks coming from Cold Weather schools, which certainly have been under-drafted over the years; and with Alonso they chose skills over athleticism, while going for a slightly older player (22 baseball years old next season). You’ll never draft a Mike Trout if you draft 21 year olds, but I suspect the age awareness has resulted in some good players slipping through the scouting reports. Scouts are people, too, and a version of the old expression, ” no one ever got fired for buying IBM” applies to them as well. In the scouts’ world, substitute “athleticism” or “fastball” for IBM, and you’re there.
All of which creates a seam that some smarty should be able to exploit. Maybe the Mets are doing it, we’ll see.