The Mets have won four of the last five games started by Bartolo Colon and the veteran has seen his ERA drop 74 points in this span. In a time where good news has been hard to come by, Colon has been a bright spot recently for the club. The plan has been for Colon to move to the bullpen once Zack Wheeler returns to the rotation. But does it make sense for the Mets to remove him from the rotation now?
Colon’s history with the Mets has been one of streakiness. In his first year with the club, he seemed to alternate good and bad streaks of around seven games. In April/May, he had a six-game streak with a 7.18 ERA but followed that up with a seven-game stretch with a 1.58 ERA. His seven games after that saw a 5.12 mark. Overall he posted a 4.09 ERA in 2014.
Last year he had a six-game stretch with a 6.31 ERA and later in the year turned in a seven-game span with a 6.08 mark. There were good stretches in there, too, and he finished the year with a 4.16 ERA.
Right now in 2016, he sits with a 3.01 ERA. So, is he pitching better now or is this just a point where he’s had an extended good stretch? Unfortunately, it appears to be the latter.
So far this year, Colon has an 80.4 LOB%, comfortably above the 71.9 and 70.2 marks he posted in the category the past two years. And while the MLB average for HR/FB rate is going up, Colon has seen his go down. In 2014, the MLB HR/FB rate was 9.5 but so far this year, it’s 12.7%. Meanwhile, Colon sits with a 9.9% mark. It all adds up to an xFIP of 3.92, which is nearly identical to last year’s 3.94 mark.
To date, Colon’s results have been an improvement over a year ago but his peripherals paint a different picture. And it’s not just xFIP, as SIERA sees a 4.18 mark for Colon.
Batters are making more contact this year against Colon. They have an 88.0 Contact% overall and when the ball is in the strike zone, hitters aren’t missing, as they have 93.0 Z-Contact%, the second-highest mark in the league among qualified pitchers. Of course, not all contact is created equally. Unfortunately for Colon, batters have a 36.4 hard hit percentage, this sixth-highest mark in the majors and tied for the highest mark of his career.
The previous time batters had this percentage of hard-hit balls against him was 2007, when Colon had a 6.34 ERA.
And on the flip side, his swinging strike percentage, not a recent strong point, has fallen to 5.5%, the worst rate in the majors among qualified hurlers.
The Mets should be thrilled with the production they’ve received to date from Colon. They’ve won eight of the 13 games he started and if all of the other members of the rotation could make a similar claim, the Mets would have a better record.
But Colon has had good fortune up until this point and that should not dissuade the Mets from following through with their original plan of moving him to the bullpen once Wheeler returns.
Amen. A train wreck just waiting to happen
He’s incredibly “selective” with the range of Fastballs he throws. He Dials from 88-93 with a variety of locations and runs. It’s not really 3.01 Stuff….but it’s pretty good 4/5 starter stuff.
The expectation for the 2016 Colon was for him to be the fifth starter with similar results as 2014 and 2015. He has matched those expectations but has the good fortune of better statistical results. The advantage of Colon’s good pitching is that it will allow Wheeler some extended time to rehab himself. When Wheeler is ready he should replace Colon in the rotation. Big Sexy has turned out to be a good signing by Alderson. Colon/Walker makes a better roster than Niese/Herrera.
Would trade Colon when Wheeler comes back and truly maximize his return. Here’s why:
– See Name’s comment.
– The main five guys will need to carry this team into the postseason and beyond. Colon didn’t offer anything in last year’s postseason that made a difference and won’t be in position this postseason either.
– Being a middle reliever doesn’t have a high value, nor does upsetting the apple cart again by going six starters.
– There will be many teams looking for starters: Astros, Rangers, Giants, Orioles, Mariners, Pirates, Red Sox, and possibly Angels that can give the Mets a good young prospect.
– The Mets have pitchers that can do a good job in a spot start, back up the rotation should the DL hit or they need an extra day. Both Gilmartin and Verrett are ready and capable, and why not Yona and Montero?
“….why not Yona and Montero?”
Montero has a 6 era…. 30 bb/53 k/83 h in 67 innings…He’s barely ready for AAA!
Wheeler is not a lock of any sort. Projecting him as slipping right in every 5 and somehow magically being ace material is ridiculous. We have no clue who Zack Wheeler is. He has not pitched in a major league game in 21 months. Colon is who he is and we all know it. Some days its 5 HR against, other days its 8 strong and 2 runs against. He’s a lot like the team itself, a Jeckyll and Hyde affair with no clue what the outcome will be before hand. Its simply crazy to envision we wont need him as a starter all season, unless we got a good trade for him (Colon for Trumbo interest anyone? – O’s desperate for a starter). Matz cannot pitch 200 this season given he pitched 141 innings last year.
Chris, if Wheeler makes three starts before the trading deadline, we will know how he’s doing.
Eraff, I pointed out that Gilmartin and Verrett were available, as 6th and 7th starters. Montero and Yona are way, way down the totem pole so that if these two get more then one start, many things would have to go wrong.
My point is we don’t need Colon after July and if I could cash him in for one of the arms we’ve given away, I would.
“if Wheeler makes three starts before the trading deadline, we will know how he’s doing.”
I guess, like with Harvey?
Multiple reports:
Zack Wheeler has had some elbow discomfort in his rehab and things are on hold. seeing Dr in NYC
I saw that earlier and knew that I was going to hear about it, LOL.
Breaking: Colon also took a liner off the thumb, and it doesn’t look good.
Wait…I seem to recall that Colon contributed solid relief in the world series. Am I missing something?