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ight, so it’s getting tiring talking about the same stuff over and over again. You’re tired of hearing about it, right? This is where we are at the moment, though, rooting for a team amazingly just two games back in the loss column from first place despite their inability to thrash a team with a winning percentage under .400. Don’t fool yourself, however. The Mets are three games behind the Nationals because that team is once again stumbling, losing six straight and leaving the door open. Thanks, Nationals! It’s almost like they enjoy our company.
Let’s be real here. This team does not deserve to be three games out of first place. The Mets went 15-7 in April, 14-15 in May, and so far have gone 10-11 in June. Can you sense a trend here? Hindsight is 20/20 and all that, sure, and we all had very high hopes for this season coming off a World Series appearance. Who wouldn’t? This team was built poorly in hindsight, though, and we really shouldn’t be all that surprised when you really think about it.
The Mets have allowed fewer runs than all teams in the MLB except the Cubs. This was something we could hang our hats on based on talent alone and it has not disappointed (mostly). The fact that the numbers are so great overall despite the sporadic hiccups throughout the rotation speaks volumes about the talent level. Beyond the specter of injuries there wasn’t anything seriously worth fretting over here, especially with the return of Zack Wheeler on the horizon.
The Mets have also scored fewer runs than all MLB teams except the Braves and Phillies. You knew that because you hear it all the time and endure watching the at-bats, but do you truly understand the ultimate futility of this offense? The Mets are in the top ten in homers, top ten in walks, and top five in strikeouts. This team is the epitome of the three true outcomes and they’re no good at pretty much everything else.
We’re talking seriously bad at everything else. They are dead last in total hits, second to last in singles, 25th in doubles, 25th in triples, 29th in stolen bases, and 29th in sacrifice fly balls. The sac flies thing would generally just be an interesting note if not for the fact that they have so few because there is no one on base (24th in OBP) or they simply don’t knock them in when they do get into scoring position (dead last in OPS and average with RISP).
This is how Sandy Alderson constructed this team and we all knew it. It seemed good, if not fragile, on paper. A dominant pitching staff with the potential for an average offense theoretically would win a lot of games. Early in the season things were fantastic. I believe I wrote something along the lines of “it’s great being a Mets fan right now” in a game recap that seems so long ago.
The fragility of the roster and lack of depth has ultimately been its downfall. Think about it: this team was heavily basing their lineup on a second-year left fielder, a third baseman that performs a tiny miracle each time he can suit up for a game, a catcher who was going to miss significant time from some injury or another, a 35-year-old right fielder clearly on the downside of his career, and a shortstop that no one believed could be a shortstop anymore. Heck, they were going to go with a Juan Lagares /Alejandro De Aza platoon in center before Yoenis Cespedes shocked the world. By all accounts the reserves seemed well enough, until they became regulars.
The point here is that, although you certainly couldn’t expect the Lucas Duda injury, large amounts of missed time should have been a forgone conclusion on this roster yet it was not built to sustain those injuries. Was Alderson crossing his fingers and hoping just like the rest of us? What else could he have done? Perhaps he could have traded a young pitcher for a young hitter as many called for over the last couple of years. Then again, 2015 may have turned out a bit differently with lesser pitching.
It’s possible this is a team that could sneak into the playoffs and win out based on it’s pitching alone. It’s also a team that may not even make the playoffs at all. What is so very aggravating is that they’d be tearing their way through baseball right now if they had just an average offense.
This season is eerily similar to last season with an offense on the brink of collapse heading into the halfway point, though we can’t expect another Cespedes to ride in on a horse and David Wright won’t be back. Hey, maybe Duda will come back a monster and everything will click again in the second half with health and performance. Maybe not. In a way it’s kind of apt that, after falling just shy of a championship in 2015, the lineup is the epitome of how most feel about the 2016 season: all or nothing.
All joking aside how could Alderson expect Wright to play for an entire season? Where was Plan A? Too many if’s and maybe’s for everything to fall into place again. This is what happens when you hope everyone stays healthy enough so the SP can carry the team. I don’t know about the second half. Maybe the Rockies will be out by then and Alderson can make a drastic decision. And just maybe the Mets will get some more insurance money to help them this season.
I’m not sure this is entirely fair, or, at least, not where I’d go with my criticism.
Considering the injuries:
* On d’Arnaud, the Mets felt that Plawecki was a reasonable backup should he go down. I think we all hoped so, at least; some folks even felt he was a starter-in-waiting.
* On Duda, the Mets acted quickly, signed Loney for peanuts. I’d bet that today there might even be some folks wondering what the Mets would do today is Duda was suddenly healthy and available. Is it so clear that Lucas is an upgrade over James? Make any conclusion you want, but I bet you have to think about it a little bit.
* On Wright, I just see that as a very tough situation for all concerned. He’s the team captain, and all-time great Met, and the embodiment of everything you want in a baseball player. He earned the shot to try to pull it together. And to my surprise, he almost did until the neck injury. I just don’t think the club was in a position to bring in a quality backup here, though signing Uribe seemed like a possible move. I give Sandy a pass on this one. Again, a nearly impossible position.
* On Curtis, he had an .821 OPS last season and appears fit and trim. His numbers are hurt almost entirely by his average (down to .219 instead of last season’s .259), which then drives his OBP. The SLG is consistent with last season. I don’t know that it was at all obvious that he was in decline.
My issues are essentially that they had an over-reliance on Flores — backing up all four infield positions, really? — the lack of a RH bat who could play outfield corners (that is, no replacement for the Cuddyer role) — and the ridiculous, absurd, wasteful signing of De Aza, who does nothing to help the Mets win games.
OTOH, yes, it’s been well-documented that SA devalues speed and defense over power and offense. I’m still not sure he’s horribly wrong in that evaluation, though I’d love for a more athletic team in general. But in the specific, it’s hard to see the available solutions.
I think it’s been a very unlucky season so far. I still believe in Conforto, still believe in d’Arnaud, and think Duda will help. Niese for Walker was a solid move; Cabrera has been excellent. Blevins has been fantastic, Reed has been great, and the handling of Cespedes deal was flawless. Colon, too, has been everything we could have reasonably hoped for and more.
I am having a hard time laying a lot of blame on Sandy for what’s transpired at the ML level in 2016.
I agree with most of your points Jimmy P. The fact they are still a playoff team after all the injuries and underperformance (including Harvey) is a testament to Alderson’s good roster construction. Yes, we could quibble that Flores was overextended and another RH bat better than Campbell was needed but ultimately Flores is responsible for not filling the role he was handed. Conforto and Plawecki both failed and need more minor league experience. It is time to maybe play D’Aza in LF and give him rope like they have been doing for Flores. Lagares could also fill the Conforto void when he gets back.
The Mets were 15-7 when they were healthy and that indicates that Alderson did nothing wrong in his roster construction. They are still a WC team because of their depth.
I disagree, Metsense. I think they are currently a WC team because the other teams vying for a spot have also mostly been just as middling.
The main point here about poor roster construction is centered not on the fact that Wright or d’Arnaud are not good when healthy, it’s the fact that so much of the offense depended on them being healthy, which it was almost certain they wouldn’t be. The back breaker here, I think, was Duda going down along with Conforto struggling.
Bringing up Nimmo, sending down Coforto, and bringing in Reyes along with a healthy d’Arnaud just may shake things up enough until Duda comes back. We’ll see.
I’ll point back to what I was saying to Metsense, and perhaps I didn’t make my point very clear in the article. The poor construction critique is mostly centered on the fact that health was such a huge issue going into the season. You knew it. I knew it. The Mets knew it. Nobody should be shocked that Wright and d’Arnaud have missed time. However, knowing the health issues going in and not mitigating that a little better has led us to watch Ty Kelly taking so many at bats. The Duda issue was of course unfortunate, obviously. Cabrera was a nice surprise, and I agree that the Walker trade was great. Could you imagine how worse off the team would be if they had say Flores (who also missed time) or a rushed Herrera in one of those spots?
The fact of the matter is, even without the diminished Wright, d’Arnaud, and Duda (the biggest pieces next to Cespedes, of course), the rest of the team is nowhere near treading water. If they’re pitching wasn’t so great they’d be the Braves right now.
I think Terry Collins should be applauded for the job he has done to keep the Mets relevant in the race. If you think about it so far this year the Mets have had only one starting pitcher that can go out and dominate an opposing lineup….last year they had 3(4 if you include Matz). They have gotten nothing offensively from 3rd base, 1st base(but I like Loney’s contact approach over Duda), catcher, right field and left field.
Reyes should be coming back. I expect him to bat lead-off and give this team a big boost just like Cespedes last year. Reyes,Nimmo, Cespedes, Granderson,Walker,Cabrera, Loney/Flores, dArnaud.
I’d like to offer my take on the Mets of last year and the current season:
In 2015 the Mets were a struggling contender, with serious deficits in speed, defense, depth and consistent hitting. Three major events propelled them to the pennant—the Cespedes trade, the other-worldly hot streak of Daniel Murphy, and the Matt Wiliams-inspired wilting of the Washigton Nationals. Good starting pitching and the addition of Michael Conforto helped.
In a Mets-centric world it was easy to overlook the serious shortcomings and revel in the success.
The 2016 team, even with Cespedes along from the start, still has similar deficits. If this team is to overcome its struggling contender status it will need outside help along with some incredible “Murphy-like” production. Will the addition of Jose Reyes, or possibly Gurriel, do what Cespedes did last year?
Can Brandon Nimmo be the 2016 version of Michael Conforto? Will the Dusty Baker-led Nats continue to stumble? Can the pitching live up to its hype?
Anything is possible, but catching lightning in a bottle as they did in 2015, is an iffy way to success.
Certainly this article dovetails well with my piece from a few days ago saying that 2016 was not going to be the Mets’ year. While having stud young starting pitching is desirable we are also talking about the most fragile aspect of roster construction. Harvey’s troubles could not have been expected and have been a blow to the team’s midsection.
The injuries to d’Arnaud and Wright had to have been anticipated and I thought Plawecki could do the job in d’Arnaud’s absence. Obviously not.
It is stunning to see how bad Conforto has done. Even if Nimmo never hits anything but singles and doubles he should be able to better what Conforto has done the past month and a half and should add range to the outfield.
The team really needed a 25th player better than Eric Campbell (or Ty Kelly). Jose Reyes won’t need to have much left in order to be an upgrade there.
Wilmer Flores has been exposed used as an everyday player.
Two points. 1-alderson places too much value on power and defense, speed and manufacruring runs are all after thoughts. I don’t agree with this approach. Power hitters strike out a lot and are more prone to slumps. You need table setters and consistent hitters in the mix. 2-i blame performance more than injuries. If Conforto, Granderson, d’Arnaud, Duda, Plawecki, DeAza and Flores all hit as projected or even close we wouldn’t be having these discussions.