It’s been a great time to be a Mets fan the first week here in July. While May and June were about as fun as a trip to the dentist, the calendar’s seventh month has gotten off to a great start, as the Mets are 4-0 with all of their wins coming against clubs with winning records. There are eight guys on the team to have at least 10 PA this month and here are their stats:
| Name | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BAbip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Loney | 20 | .333 | .400 | .556 | .956 | .357 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 18 | .471 | .500 | .824 | 1.324 | .538 |
| Wilmer Flores | 18 | .438 | .444 | .813 | 1.257 | .333 |
| Neil Walker | 18 | .333 | .444 | .533 | .978 | .400 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 15 | .333 | .467 | .583 | 1.050 | .300 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 12 | .455 | .500 | 1.000 | 1.500 | .375 |
| Travis d’Arnaud | 11 | .545 | .545 | .818 | 1.364 | .556 |
| Curtis Granderson | 10 | .333 | .400 | 1.000 | 1.400 | .200 |
For so long, we’ve had more than half the lineup not hitting a lick. It’s fun to see all eight guys hitting, even if it is just for a sample of four games. When your weak link has a .956 OPS you know you’re living right.
The thing is, most guys have been hitting for a longer stretch than four games. Here is the hot hitting stretch for each of the guys listed above:
Loney – .323/.382/.597 over his last 68 PA. The power he’s displayed recently has been wonderful.
Cespedes – .366/.417/.591 over his last 103 PA. It’s like he’s hitting in Las Vegas.
Flores – .315/.363/.489 over his last 102 PA. Still don’t like the swing but you can’t argue with the results.
Walker – The one guy who doesn’t have a recent hot streak. But in his last 12 games he has 10 R and 7 RBIs
Nimmo – .321/.387/.429 over his last 31 PA. Looks like a good swing but we need to see more power.
Cabrera – .279/.319/.515 over his last 72 PA. Has 8 HR since 5/24, as he’s developed into low AVG-high SLG guy.
d’Arnaud – .448/.467/.552 over his last 30 PA. Please stay healthy.
Granderson – .272/.371/.515 over his last 159 PA.
That’s an extended good streak for Granderson, roughly a quarter of the season. You still hear people plotting and scheming for ways to reduce his role or get him off the team altogether. But right now, he’s still having his numbers dragged down by his bad stretch. And we know when he’s bad, he’s really, really bad. We all remember his April of 2014, when he put up a .129/.242/.212 line in his first 99 PA with the club. He had a similar stretch this year in May, where in 23 he games he posted a .155 AVG. But he hit well both before and after that miserable stretch. He’s hitting better than Christian Yelich in his current 159 PA-streak.
Sure, Granderson’s noodle arm clearly does not belong in RF but there’s no easy replacement. Nimmo’s throw on Monday may get all of the scrutiny, because it was so recent and so bad. But he hasn’t looked impressive judging balls in his very brief time in the majors. If you recall, the plan was to move Granderson to left after his first year but Terry Collins opted to keep him in right because of his experience playing what the manager felt was a difficult position in Citi Field because of the non-cookie cutter dimensions.
It would be nice if Cespedes would play right. That way, the apparent Nimmo/Juan Lagares platoon could operate in the same spot defensively, too. In 485 innings in CF this year, Cespedes has a (-4) DRS and a (-6.3) UZR. Over a full season, that’s a (-14) UZR/150, the same mark he recorded in 312.1 innings in center for the Mets in 2015. There was the thought that once he played there regularly that the numbers would improve. So far, that has not been the case for Cespedes in center.
Can Nimmo handle center as part of the large part of a platoon? That’s still up for debate. Chances are he’d be at least as good as to-date Cespedes, though. Right now this will have to remain a theoretical discussion, as there’s no way the Mets will do anything to tick off Cespedes and he’s not shown any interest in playing RF previously.
Many will complain about Granderson’s unwillingness to go the other way to help negate the shift. Yet according to the link that Rob Rogan shared Saturday, Granderson has a .262 AVG against all shifts. Since he has a .231 AVG overall, not only is the shift not hurting Granderson to the extent many feel, it’s actually helping him in one department.
Last year after the break, Granderson had a .278/.392/.506 line in 353 PA. That’s an .880 OPS, one he’s essentially matching (.886 OPS) since his terrible three week stretch in May ended. Granderson has a .293 BABIP in his current streak, so it’s not like he’s going all Cespedes (.460 BABIP in his last 103 PA) on us.
Is he an .886 OPS player over an entire year? No, he’s not. But my position is he’s closer to that than to the .686 OPS guy he was on May 20th. Last year he had an .821 OPS overall and this year his season-long mark sits at .780 after 332 PA. Hopefully that mark moves up towards 2015 but even if it doesn’t, that’s not production that can easily be replaced.
The OF situation is certainly intriguing. Granny is carrying his weight at the dish, but he will give up lots of runs with a wildly weak arm, even from shallow right…or deep 2B (remember when Murph played there!?!?!). He gave up 2 runs with crap throws recently.
So what seems to be missing is the name Conforto, that guy who is supposed to be our 3 hole hitter for the next decade, and left fielder. He’s killing it in LV and so will surely be up soon and Nimmo back down, but I wonder where the cutoff is on Grandy as an every day guy and platooning him with a righty bat, presumably Lagares(?).
Conforto has an .803 OPS in Las Vegas. The team mark is .831
So what. Reyes is batting <.200 in AA and will be leading off and playing 3B tonight. Conforto will be displacing Nimmo before the months end for sure
Ces won’t play RF…Grandy Doesn’t Play Left…oh well!!!!
Big change I see lately…2 strike approach and more contact emphasis for all players.
That has kept them competitive in ab’s….. the 5 run bases empty homerun swings have largely disappeared.
I was over joyed with the hits driven to the right side by Cespee this weekend….of course the big hit yesterday
Very good point on the approach. Hopefully, the team as a whole has been embarrassed by their apparent ineptitude?
When can we start calling them “relentless”?
when they win 20 out of 30
I’m guessing that Granderson might benefit with a bit more rest—if Reyes can provide some production at the top of the order, it makes it easier for Granderson to gain a few days off. That helps everyone, even the bench guys who could use some regular ab’s.
The future is here!!! Look who’s featured!!!
https://mobile.twitter.com/Mets/status/750426493289771008
Chris is going to die!
Brian is going to gag!
Name is going to just shut off his computer!
Matt is going to celebrate!
I just threw up in my mouth a little.
ok…LHP…. with Wilmer taking some ab’s….. this makes sense. There is a 350-450 ab “Role” for a “Rover”… all he needs to do is be effective.
I posted this in the comments section of the story you linked to, Brian, but it’s still crazy. So far this entire season, Granderson has only had 20 PA where he put the ball in play and he wasn’t shifted on.
It looks like the shift data doesn’t take into account walks, Ks, and HRs, so the data is slightly skewed. Still, the PA split for shift vs no shift is 184/20, which essentially means that he’s been facing a shift pretty much every at bat.\
The Modern Swing: The Optimal Pitch….The “Optimal Swing”….. Situational Swing almost non-existent…… by definition, this leads to a “Monoculture” of Hitting…extremely shift prone.
indeed