Checking in on the production of James Loney

Earlier this year the Mets rescued veteran James Loney off the scrap heap. It was a low-risk move that the vast majority of the fan base approved of immediately. However, not everyone (read:me) signed off on the acquisition. Loney took over as the starter and has essentially played every day. Now that he has 150 PA under his belt, let’s check in and see how he’s doing.

After putting up a .680 OPS for the Rays last year and a .797 OPS in the hitter-friendly PCL before being acquired by the Mets, Loney has a .277/.336/.438 line for the Mets. The AVG and the OBP are essentially right around what should have been expected based on his track record. The SLG has been like a gift from the heavens. You have to go back to 2007 to find a year where he delivered a higher number in the category. It is significantly better than last year’s .357 mark.

There’s no way anyone should look at his to-date numbers and be anything but happy. What Loney has done to this point has been to provide an excellent in-season upgrade. Kudos all around.

Now let’s take a deeper look into Loney’s numbers with the Mets. Obviously what was presented above are his numbers for the entire year. Yet the way he has achieved these numbers has been interesting. Let’s break down his time into three consecutive periods.

Period A – 15 Games, 63 PA, .254/.290/.339 (5/31-6/16)
Period B – 14 Games, 57 PA, .346/.404/.673 (6/17-7/1)
Period C – 8 Games, 30 PA, .192/.300/.192 (7/2-7/9)

In the first period, he hit pretty much like expected, perhaps a touch below, given his recent track record. In his most recent period, only half the PA of the first two stretches, he’s hit worse than expected. And in the middle period, he hit like David Ortiz. Given that the Mets are playing the Nationals, he could have been compared to Bryce Harper or Daniel Murphy except that he hit better than those two guys.

Conventional wisdom is that you’re never as good as you look when things are going well and never as bad as you look when things aren’t going your way. It doesn’t seem a stretch to say that going forward, Loney is not the guy he was in Period B. Just as clear, he’s not the guy he’s been in Period C, either. So, what is he?

For a full-time player, the answer is easy. The starter is the guy that his final numbers say he is. Everyone’s going to have hot and cold streaks but over six months we expect those to even out to a large degree. What we have right now with Loney is about a quarter of a full season. What his to-date numbers say are being heavily influenced by Period B.

It would be wonderful if Loney put up another three stretches like Period B in the remainder of the year. As Mets fans, that’s what we are all rooting to happen.

But when we go beyond fanboy optimism and try to look at things objectively, there’s no reason to think he will produce a .673 SLG mark over an extended period again. Here are his three-best extended stretches SLG marks from last season:

15 games, .466
14 games, .477
11 games, .529

Here are his three-best from 2014:

15 games, .519
18 games, .440
17 games, .478

So, did he find the fountain of youth? Did Kevin Long unlock the mystery of power? Did he get a prescription from Doctor Robert? Perhaps any of these three things are possible, even if my answer to each of them would be, “No.”

The Mets enjoyed an out-of-nowhere hot streak from Loney. The hot streak was real and no one is trying to take it away from him. The question is what we should expect from him going forward. Already, people are talking about what to do if and when Lucas Duda returns and there are a significant number of folks who can’t wait for a reason to cut ties with Duda and employ Loney in the immediate future.

Let’s cross that bridge when we get to it, especially since it’s not imminent and the possibility exists that it may not even happen. In the meantime, let’s not let a completely unexpected streak from Loney define who he is. In that same vein, but on the opposite side of the spectrum, let’s not let a three-week stretch where he hit .155 define Curtis Granderson, either.

ZiPS projects a .380 SLG and a .700 OPS from Loney from this point to the remainder of the season. Steamer chimes in with a .385 SLG and a .703 OPS. This seems reasonable, even if I would have put the numbers lower. Currently, Loney has a .774 OPS.

One other thing to consider. All of the stats used previously were context neutral. These types of stats are the best ones to use if you’re interested in what a player might do going forward. But there’s also value to accurately describe what has already happened in the proper context. While looking at the results with leverage factored in is not predictive, it does give additional understanding to the importance of what’s been delivered in real life.

From a raw OPS point of view, Loney has been pretty valuable so far with the Mets. Yet his Win Probability Added (WPA) tells a different story. For the season, Loney checks in with a (-0.04) WPA. With a bat in his hands, Loney has not done a whole heck of a lot to push his team towards winning so far.

WPA is a counting stat, so it’s tough to accumulate a ton of value in 150 PA. Duda has 145 PA this year and has a 0.12 WPA. Yet we do find people with much better numbers. Chris Herrmann has a 0.75 WPA in 157 PA, Shin-Soo Choo has a 1.22 WPA in 134 PA and Ichiro Suzuki has a 1.39 WPA in 187 PA. Loney’s WPA numbers so far are not bad. The problem is they’re not good. Of all the words you would use to describe him, “clutch” would not be one of them.

Loney has far exceeded my expectations to date. He’s done this thanks to a SLG hot streak far beyond what anyone would have reasonably predicted. The computer models do not think he will replicate what he’s done so far going forward. Duda does not seem to be returning any time soon so Mets fans will get to see a heavy dose of Loney at least through the rest of July and probably longer than that. Let’s hope he has a few slugging hot streaks left in his bat.