Jose Reyes and hoping for a happy ending

If you were watching the Mets in 2011, and earlier, no doubt you have fond memories of Jose Reyes. A young Reyes was absolutely electric, seemed to have a permanent smile on his face and played with such joy. The Mets had had speedy guys play for them before but Reyes was so much more than a speedster. He could hit for average, drive the ball into the gaps and he was a pretty solid defender at a premium position.

Now, after a four-plus year absence, Mets fans are getting to see Reyes pull on the team jersey again. And if you’re not conflicted by that, you’re not being honest with yourself. The big white elephant, of course, is the domestic abuse. But even aside from that is the simple fact that it’s not 2011 anymore. Reyes might still be the fastest guy on the team – let’s get a race with Juan Lagares to find out – but he’s not the guy he was when he left.

It’s not too much of a mulligan to forgive what he did with the Rockies last year. Reyes clearly didn’t want to be there and it’s not hard to find sympathy for him, as he went from a club in first place/playoff hunt to one of the worst teams in the league. But it’s not like he was performing at an All-Star level before then.

The argument is that he doesn’t need to be the Reyes of 2011 to be useful.

Before the trade to Colorado last year, Reyes was slashing .285/.322/.385 and that seems to be a decent starting place. If he were able to duplicate these numbers, would he be useful for the Mets? The NL average for guys batting first in the lineup is a .765 OPS and a .345 OBP, so he would be below average. Of course, Reyes batting leadoff would allow the Mets to bat Curtis Granderson lower in the order and, hopefully, take greater advantage of Granderson’s power.

But if the only thing needed was a .322 OBP why not bat Asdrubal Cabrera at the top?

Reyes still brings speed and the idea with batting him leadoff is that he could help manufacture runs. And as he’s scored five runs in eight games, it’s easy to see the appeal. But the problem is that three of those five runs came on homers. Without a doubt, homers are good. But if Reyes was brought in for his ability to manufacture runs, the very early return in that department is not so overwhelming.

He’s attempted two steals for the Mets and became just the 12th player on the club to swipe a base. Two steal attempts is not that much for a guy here in large part for his ability to run but it just proves the old adage that you can’t steal first base. Reyes has a .286 OBP but three of those he didn’t have a chance to run the bases.

In 2014, Eric Young Jr. had a .229/.299/.311 line in 100 games and 316 PA. He stole 30 bases and scored 48 runs. And the Mets let him leave as a free agent with no thoughts on giving him a new contract. If Reyes were to duplicate what Young did, would that be a success? It’s hard to imagine Reyes not providing more power – Young had just 16 XBH. But Young had an 83% success ratio on his 36 steal attempts. Would Reyes be able to match that rate at that volume? In 311 PA for the Blue Jays last year, he swiped 16 bags in 18 attempts. That’s a phenomenal rate but just half the volume that Young had in a similar amount of playing time.

If Reyes were able to maintain his HR output the rest of the season, it’s very likely he would be a more valuable offensive player than Young in 2014. But how likely is it that he’ll be able to do that? Last year with Toronto he had a .100 ISO and currently he has a .255 ISO. Regardless, the bottom line is that a large part of Young’s value that year came from his defense in left field, where he posted an 8.8 UZR/+5 DRS in 577.1 innings. Can Reyes match that type of defense?

Young’s value in 2014 came via defense and baserunning, a combination which made up for his woeful performance in the batter’s box to make him a league average player overall for his time played. We think Reyes’ power will give him an edge with the bat but it’s possible that gets negated by baserunning/defense. And even if it doesn’t – would Reyes have provided any kind of upgrade to the team?

Kelly Johnson has been very strong since being acquired and Wilmer Flores has a .286/.341/.513 slash line in 132 PA since coming off the DL and getting consistent playing time. Neither of those two players are likely to keep that hitting pace going forward. If they were, there would be no discussion because it would be so much more valuable than what Reyes is likely to give.

But once factoring in a substantial regression, it’s still not apparent that Reyes would be preferable. Whereas in a theoretical matchup against 2014 Young, it’s Reyes’ hitting versus Young’s baserunning and defense. In the less theoretical matchup against 2016 Flores/Johnson, it’s the duo’s hitting against Reyes’ defense and baserunning. It seems like a coin flip to me.

The memory of 2011 Reyes, especially first half 2011, is a great one for me. It’s kind of nice to see him in a Mets uniform once again. But it saddens me that the bar is set at 2014 Young and it’s uncertain whether he can match that and even if he does match it, if it’s any improvement over what they already had on the roster.

Surely, at least one of Reyes and David Wright was supposed to have a happy ending, right?