The news heading into the trade deadline is that the Mets will pick up a reliever but not make any deal for a potential impact player like they did a season ago. This has caused a lot of discussion about the relievers already on the team. No one questions the value of either Jeurys Familia or Addison Reed. The question is about who holds down the seventh-inning spot.
Manager Terry Collins is still hesitant to use Jerry Blevins in that role, especially if all righties are due up in the inning. He’s starting to have more faith in Hansel Robles, but his ability to pitch multiple innings may mean that putting him in the straight jacket of “7th-inning man” may not be the best usage for him. Regardless, there are still some in the fan base who are leery of having Robles counted on for important innings.
Last year, Robles did a solid job overall, with a sparkling 1.019 WHIP. Unlike a lot of relievers, Robles’ issue wasn’t baserunners. Rather it was his propensity to give up the gopher ball. He allowed 8 HR in 54 IP and his HR/9 of 1.33 was the 14th-worst mark among 131 relievers with at least 50 IP.
Comparing his line from last year to this year, it’s almost like two different pitchers. Yes, the strikeouts are very good in both years, with this year’s 10.61 K/9 being nearly half a strikeout better than 2015. But he’s allowing more walks, surrendering fewer homers, giving up more hits but stranding more runners on base.
Robles’ ERA is down over a run from a season ago. But interestingly, xFIP shows nearly identical results from a season ago. In 2015, he had a 3.79 xFIP and this year he has a 3.88 mark. As you probably already know, xFIP gives pitchers a normalized HR rate. Last year, that helped Robles and this year, it’s hurting him.
Homers are up this year. Last year’s MLB HR/FB rate was 11.4% but this year’s mark checks in at 12.8%. And Robles has a 9.3 HR/FB rate. The perception is that Robles is HR prone but the reality is he’s made terrific strides in this area.
And really, most of the damage was done in one game, when Robles served up three gopher balls against the Dodgers back on May 28.
Since June 1, Robles has appeared in 18 games, thrown 25.1 innings and has not surrendered a homer. He has a 1.78 ERA in this span. If we temporarily ignore the May 28 game, Robles has allowed 2 HR in 46.2 IP.
Of course, there’s more to pitching than just limiting homers. While he had a terrific WHIP last year, Robles’ mark this year is much closer to average. He’s allowing both more walks and more hits compared to a season ago. His 3.72 BB/9 is very concerning. Robles’ strikeout ability is helping him survive but he’s going to have to reduce his baserunners allowed going forward if he hopes to keep his sparkling 2.61 ERA.
Robles hits the upper 90s with his fastball and has a 94. 7 average fastball velocity. That gas allows him to pile up both strikeouts and infield popups. His 14.8 IFFB% is the second-best mark on the team. Since infield pops result in an out the overwhelming majority of the time, it’s excellent to have a high rate here.
However, Robles has a dangerously high rate of hard-hit balls. His 28.5 LD% is the highest rate among 71 relievers with at least 40 IP this season. And Robles’ 36.0 Hard% ranks tied for the seventh-worst mark. Outside of his infield pops, Robles simply isn’t inducing a lot of soft contact this year.
After his fastball, Robles’ main pitch is his slider and he also mixes in an occasional change. In the May 28 game where he allowed three homers, he threw a gopher ball with each of these pitches. The one surrendered on a fastball was a 93.71 heater, which is below his average fastball velocity.
The slider is the troublesome pitch. It’s a swing-and-miss offering, with a 14.5 Whiff%. The trouble is when he hangs one and batters put it in play. Linear Weights shows both his fastball and change being solid pitches but his slider is overall a negative offering. You just can’t stop throwing a pitch that generates that many swings and misses. But the pitch still needs some refinement.
My preference is to see Robles used to pitch multiple innings rather than partial ones. With that being said, it makes sense to get a guy to fill the role that Reed did last year, someone to close out the seventh, whether that is a full or partial inning. Meanwhile, Robles can keep getting results and look for a bigger role in the 2017 bullpen.
I like this piece and I like Robles.
Also, it’s not clear that anyone they trade for wi automatically be better than Bastardo over the last 65 games. I realize I am in the minority on that one.
I think there is a walks: homers connection. Robles penchant for giving up the long ball stems, in part, from his super aggressiveness. Here it is, try to hit it. Works most of the time. But I think pitchers get better when they learn how to walk batters — when and who, particularly. The walks may make some peripheral stats look worse, but big picture might be indicative of a thrower learning his craft.
Don’t give in to the hitter.
Early count command of his mix would eliminate some of the Hitter’s Count Surrenders for Robles.
I’ve always admired the explosive arm…he has high leverage stuff
Robles seems to just not garner much attention when he does well, and the spotlight is directly on him when he does bad. Its too bad. He’s mostly good, and certainly could be, and probably should be, the 7th inning guy. That hes a multiple inning guy is something easy to abuse, but useful in special circumstances (like in ATL when the Mets went up 8-0 early then Matz let in 6 in the 4th or 5th and I believe Robles came in for 6 or 7 outs). I could see him as a 4 out guy.
Robles does need to harness his skills to be a better all around pitcher. He really needs to work close with the catcher on making the best pitch selections.
This is one of those areas that I wish we as fans were better informed.
Who makes the decisions? Too often the pitcher gets blamed for pitch selection. My opinion is that a young pitcher has almost no say in the matter. If TDA looks in the dugout and gets a sign from the bench about which pitch to throw where — does Robles have the option of shaking it off? I don’t know. My guess is no.
I too wish we had more insight into this. Some guys are Nuke Laloosh out there nodding in agreement with a catcher’s every sign. Other guys, namely Harvey, seem to shake off everything. It’s hard to tell from where we sit, but I get the impression that Rivera does a good job with this but Plawecki and TDA are still uncertain.
As for Hansel Robles, I’m with you 100%. I think he’d be a terrific secret weapon out of the pen with no defined role. To make that happen requires three things:
1- our starters need to go 7 or 8 more often to put less burden on the pen.
2- our lineup needs to lead a few blowouts so we can not use Reed and Familia seemingly everyday. (this would also give more work to Bastardo who stinks this year)
3 – we could really use one more reliable arm in there. It doesn’t have to be a big name closer, but another Reed quality pitcher to really help lock down the last 3 innings and give us a better shot in extra inning games.
Good article, Brian.
With the fragility of the young arms and the team’s desire to limit innings, it would seem that depth in the bullpen is a need.
The questions are: Who is available?
Are they better than what the team has?
What would the cost be?
Whether the Mets are headed for the playoffs or not, the team has to find a way to not abuse the arms that are on the team. Oh, I forgot, we’re talking about TC.
Sorry, but I couldn’t resist the last sentence.
Basically, he’s taken over the role Carlos Torres had over the last few years.
He’s had a remarkable run in the last 35 days as a long man with 5 vulture wins in the past 35 days. That’s the same as deGrom and Syndergaard combined.
I like that comparison, especially since Torres had big trouble with the gopher ball in his first year with the Mets and improved.