The 2016 Mets were supposed to be a team built on pitching, specifically starting pitching. The starters had the potential to be great and the thought was that while the bullpen might be a question mark, the starters would go deep enough, often enough, that the bullpen could be kept from being exposed. As it turns out, the pitching has been very good, with a staff ERA of 3.36, which is the third-best mark in the league.
But the staff has been good because the bullpen has made up for somewhat disappointing starting pitching. The NL average ERA for relievers is 3.95 and the Mets’ pen checks in with a 3.21 mark, compared to a 3.43 ERA for the team’s starters. But ERA is just one part of the story. It was thought that the club’s starters could pitch deep into games on a regular basis. And while the Mets have been good in that category, they have not been great, ranking fifth in the league in innings from their starters. They rank closer to 14th place than they do to first.
The Mets have been fortunate in the health department, having used just six different pitchers to start a game so far this season. It’s not like they’ve been completely healthy – as Matt Harvey went down with a season-ending injury and Zack Wheeler was supposed to return on July 1 and may or may not pitch in the majors this year. Rather, the team isn’t getting the length from the guys they essentially anticipated to be in the rotation, not untested guys getting called up from the minors.
The hope was that the Mets would get seven innings from their starter on a somewhat regular basis. Sure, it would be okay in April if the pitchers didn’t do that. But once the weather warmed up, the thought was that we’d be seeing seven innings from the starters at least half of the time. But here in July, the starters have gone seven innings or more just eight times in 25 games. And that followed up a June in which they did it eight times in 27 games.
In fact, the Mets’ starters have gone at least seven innings just 30 times in 103 games. Noah Syndergaard has done it most often, achieving it eight times. Jacob deGrom has done it seven while Bartolo Colon and Steven Matz have both done it six times. Harvey did it twice and Logan Verrett reached the mark in his last outing.
What the rotation has been good at is not getting bombed early. Just 15 times this year has a starter failed to go five innings, with Colon notching four of those early exits.
It’s impossible to say which one is better for a staff – fewer early exits and fewer 7+ inning starts or more of each. But if you’re worried about your bullpen, my guess is that you would like to have as many games as possible where you used just two or three pitchers in a game. Because of the lack of long outings from the starters – and the manager’s preference to play matchups – we regularly see four or more pitchers per game.
In the dozen games since deGrom pitched a shutout, the Mets have used more than three pitchers in a game seven times and exactly three pitchers five times, including Saturday night, when Seth Lugo came on and pitched three innings after Colon exited after five frames.
Under the Sandy Alderson-Terry Collins regime, the theory of bullpen management is to avoid a long man, play matchups often, have all hands on deck and hope the game doesn’t go extra innings. It’s how seemingly every night that multiple relievers have pitched in three of the last four games. Because Addison Reed has been so good in the eighth inning, we’ve seen fewer matchups being played in that frame. But even with that relative advantage, the relievers are still being utilized often because the starters aren’t going deep in games.
In the week ending July 30, a span of six games, Terry Collins went to the bullpen 19 times and those relievers pitched 19 innings. Just twice in the last 19 reliever appearances has a pitcher gone longer than an inning. Lugo’s effort last night which was already mentioned and Erik Goeddel’s two-inning stint Friday night. And the week before, the relievers threw 18 IP, despite deGrom’s complete game as one of the six outings.
The 2016 bullpen has been so good that it seems overly pessimistic to complain about its usage. But we saw Thursday night what we’ve been fortunate not to witness too often this year. Jeurys Familia, who pitched three times in the previous four days and threw 26 pitches on Wednesday, was called on again and got lit up.
Verrett put the club in good shape, having gone seven innings. Collins could have used some combination of Hansel Robles and Jerry Blevins to get through the eighth and used Reed to close out the game in the ninth. But he opted to go the standard Reed-Familia route, even if it meant using Familia for the fourth time in five games and after stating earlier that the closer would get the night off.
As good as the bullpen is, Collins seemingly has confidence in just Reed and Familia. Blevins and Robles have turned in top notch work through most of the season yet Collins treats them just slightly better than Antonio Bastardo, who since early May has been arriving on the mound with his own personal gasoline can.
The offense has drawn most of the ire for the team’s recent poor play, as it should have. But it would be nice if the starters went longer and the relievers were not asked to pitch multiple days in a row. Earlier there was talk of acquiring another late-inning reliever. It’s always nice to add a quality arm. It’s also nice to use the quality arms you have already at your disposal.
And if today’s starter would go seven-plus, that would be nice, too.
In my mind, Harvey was going to be great. Instead, it was a disaster. That was the season. Combined with the delay of Wheeler, and it was too much. I really felt that if Harvey was healthy, Sandy would have been able to trade an arm at some point for a decent haul. Wheeler was his best chip.
(Not that it’s over, but.)
Very telling that when the Mets needed a spot starter last night, they instead opted to pitch Colon on short rest — very much the opposite decision they’ve been making for the past two years — because at the end of 2016, there wasn’t a single decent option available. Not anyone with decent odds of giving them six good innings. Sandy’s system is a mess. A complete failure. They took a guy off the street and started him in CF last night. And the fact that they couldn’t get Lacroy is also telling. Outside of Rosario, there’s not a blue chipper in sight. You could put together the Mets #1 picks from 2011, 2012, and 2013 in a package and dangle them for all the world, I don’t think it would be particularly exciting to anyone — and, more importantly, and easy beat for a competing suitor.
The talk of Jay Bruce just confuses me.
I don’t see how Kevin Long survives this season.
Yes…I don;t understand Bruce, or the heavy pursuit of Lucroy (which failed)….. unless it’s a “both and then some” type of re-build.
Supposed Stat Heads at the top…. they play defensive shifts, but they don’t play situational offensive baseball. They consistently lack a full bench almost continuously over the past 3-4 years. They talk “all-in”, but they’re 105 games into neededing a RH OF Bat.
The injuries have been severe and maybe even fatal…but the pursuits of players (at least those we hear about) are not an address for this season’s needs.
As for Kevin Long…..Hitting Coaches improve with great hitters—but the “One Swing fit’s all situations approacjh” has gotta die.
Thanks for the article but you left out a key element. The inability of the Mets to score impacts starter length. How many starts were shortened by 5th and 6th inning pinch hitting? How many times would a starter have remained in if they had a four run lead. Or, who might have relieved in those instances if the lead was greater. You may want to incorporate those occurrences into your analysis.
Hi Nat – Thanks for reading and commenting!
I’d say that the few times that a pitcher was PH for in the 5th or 6th was because of the number of pitches thrown, rather than the score. I’ll try to look later when I have more time. Of course you or someone else is welcome to do it and post the numbers here.
Don’t remember the pitch count, but PH’ing for DeGrom the other day with no out & 2 RISP with I guy who was certain to get an IBB and a taxed closer in the BP would seem to fit this depressing profile.
In that case, deGrom was available for the next inning, but circumstances (a rare scoring opportunity, runners 2nd and 3rd, nobody out) caused TC to reconsider and go for the runs. They failed to score and in that moment any long-suffering fan likely felt, as I did, that this was the kind of game the Mets lose. Which they did.
deGrom had already thrown 7 IP and 97 pitches. He had an easy seventh inning so you can argue that he could have gone out in the eighth. But it’s hard to criticize taking him out there. But, like you mentioned, if they were going to PH for him with an open base, using Cespedes was probably not the best option.
I have to assume that with a more consistant offense, the bullpen wouldn’t always be under such pressure late in games . Also, I think the fact that not one starting pitcher is in double figures in wins speaks volumes as well.
Lucroy back on table…Exercised his no-trade clause.
Maybe we are still in this!
“In fact, the Mets’ starters have gone at least seven innings just 30 times in 103 games”
Any chance you could dig up some stats for some more context?
What’s the NL league average for percentage of starts with 7+ IP?
Also, where do the Mets rank on that list?
How do we compare to last year as well?
I know offense is way up this year so maybe comparing to last year might not be the best comparison.
I don’t have time to do by individual teams.
Coming into today, there have been 367 times this year an NL pitcher has gone at least 7 IP this year. Each team has played about 105 games
Completely agree Brian. The pitchers are not economizing – too many deep counts, fouled off pitches, etc. Walks are generally, but they have been more of an issue of late. Errors and bad calls (wtf is wrong with umpires this season?) haven’t helped. Today was a perfect example of Thor laboring through 6 when he should have been able to go 7. If a starter has thrown close to 120 pitches after 6, I can’t blame Collins for pulling him. However, a few times, he’s pulled Colon in particular despite a low pitch count. I’d feel differently if Bastardo was doing the job he was getting paid to do. Brian, you were right about him. He is my least favorite Met right now.
The stamina issue should be temporary. The starting pitchers should get used the pitch clock as the season progresses. The more they pitch, the more that there will be a “inner clock ” for themselves. Many pitchers will then will use the clock as an advantage in gamemanship . Also, the trainers and them should adjust training routines.
It was a very good point that there should be multiple inning relievers on a team. Relievers #5-8 should be capable of two innings. Iwas surprised that the Mets did not have a long man/spot starting on the opening day roster to replace Trevor Williams.