Lost amidst the flurry of deadlines deals in general, and the Jay Bruce trade specifically, the Mets and Pirates conducted a swap of disappointing lefties, with the Mets giving up Antonio Bastardo for Jon Niese. FanGraphs listed a summary of 25 deadline deals and this one didn’t make the cut. Yet could it be a trade that actually helps the Mets moving forward?
When we last saw Niese, he was figuratively extending his middle finger towards the club and his teammates on the way out the door, saying words to the effect of how he was looking forward to playing in front of a good defensive squad for a change. Woops. The Pirates could have eight Gold Glove winners in the field and they wouldn’t have been able to help stop the monsoon of homers Niese has given up.
A look at Niese’s stat line shows everything else pretty much in line with what he’s done recently with the Mets. His K rate is a little up, his BB rate is a little up, his GB rate a little down. Once we account for homers, he’s doing pretty much what he did last year. But sweeping the homers under the rug like that is like asking Mrs. Lincoln what she thought of the play.
Niese’s 21.6 HR/FB rate is easily the worst mark in the majors among 93 qualified starting pitchers. So, why has he been so easy to take deep this year? Before answering that question, we should acknowledge that it’s not all been 2016 where this change has taken place. Last year, Niese had a 14.3 HR/FB rate, which at the time was the highest mark of his career. In his last eight starts of 2015, Niese surrendered 7 HR in 44.2 IP. That’s a 1.41 HR/9.
TexasLeaguers.com allows us to isolate that eight-start stretch and examine his pitch offerings. The thing that jumps out that is he was throwing more fastballs and fewer breaking balls. Combining his two-seamer and four-seamer, Niese was throwing his FB 61.5 percent of the time. FanGraphs shows Niese’s 2015 FB usage at 47.1% of the time.
Jumping back to 2016, Niese FanGraphs has Niese throwing his fastball 56.3 percent of the time, the highest rate for him since 2009. Meanwhile, he’s only thrown his curve 8.3 percent of the time, easily the lowest mark of his career. More fastballs, fewer curves and disaster.
Can Niese still throw his curve 15-20 perecent of the time? Seems like a decent thing to try, if he’s able to do it physically. We saw the decline in Niese’s curve, which didn’t have the big break like when he first came up. While it may be closer to a “10 to 8” rather than a “12 to 6” break, when spotted correctly it’s still likely a superior pitch than a steady diet of 89 mph fastballs.
Initial reports had Niese working in the pen, with Logan Verrett remaining in the rotation. This makes sense in the short run. But if Niese can get his curve working and do a better job of limiting the HR ball, he may be a better option for starts in September than Verrett. And even if Verrett goes on a nice run, Niese may still be used in the rotation to help the innings crunch for Noah Syndergaard and/or Steven Matz.
The immediate reaction was to categorize this trade as addition by subtraction. Bastardo had been a big disappointment after a strong first five weeks and this deal gets the Mets out from under his 2017 obligation. The Mets will pay Niese more the remainder of 2016 but they have a cheap buyout after the season.
Yet if Dan Warthen and the rest can get Niese back to where he was in June and July of last year, where in 10 starts he had a 2.94 ERA, a 1.181 WHIP and a 0.7 HR/9, this could end up being a sneaky good addition. We always hear about the “Warthen Slider.” Let’s hope our pitching coach can help Niese rediscover and throw his curve on a consistent basis.
I had a similar idea about Warthen being able to get Niese back on track because he may know how to coach him. Likewise, the Pirates pitching coach may be able to fix Bastardo whereas Warthen wasn’t able to coach him. So, this trade could work out for both teams.
The roster moves to come today should be interesting. Niese can replace Lugo and Bruce can replace Nimmo. Additionally, I’d make way for Josh Edgin and DFA Ruggiano.
I am so glad to see Bastardo go. Aside from stinking up the joint and being overpaid, his sloooooow pitching style makes him brutal to watch.
Niese’s curveball was what made him good earlier in his career. Usually when a pitcher loses 5mph off his fastball he relies more on his secondary pitches. This is just bizarre. Since his shoulder issue has forced him to throw from a 3/4 almost sidearm slot, his fastballs are more flat too. Maybe he can start snarfing down NY pizza and reinvent himself as Sid Fernandez. At least part of El Sid’s success was due to him hiding his pitching arm behind his torso.
The move has no upside beyond getting Bastardo off the books for next year. Warthen had Niese forever, and well, he didnt do much to recuse Niese. I cannot understand the love for this guy. He is terrible. The good news is with 1M$ to buyout 2 seasons, we will be done with his services soon enough.
Jon Niese is only signed until the end of the season, can spot start if necessary, and can fill the roll of mop up man and eat innings if necessary.
Bastardo is signed through 2017, can’t spot start and can only go two innings.
Niese is a better 12th man for the Met pitching staff.
The only concern Niese should have is if Flores hits him in the back of the head with a throw…..welll…..at least it will bounce first.
hahahahahhahaha
The Sage of M360 has delivered again!