Here we are in the home stretch and right in the thick of things. This season has, in no way, gone the way management, players or fans could have expected. We could probably assemble a team from our disabled list (if, magically, they were all healthy) that could beat our current team. Yet somehow, we stand neck and neck among three teams fighting for two wild card playoff spots with 22 games left to be played.
Based on the way we’ve been playing (14 wins in our last 18 games) and our cream puff of a remaining schedule, it now seems like we have a good chance to sneak into the playoffs following an incredibly lackluster middle of the season that actually saw us briefly drop below .500. If we do indeed make it, we’ll earn a one-game do-or-die playoff against the other wild card winner, either the Giants or Cardinals. That means one game against Cy Young favorite and World Series hero, Madison Bumgarner or 2006 nemesis and owner of baseball’s filthiest curveball, Adam Wainwright.
We could be one and done, which would be very disappointing – just ask Pittsburgh Pirates fans. Or, we could pull that one out – and hey who doesn’t like our chances with our own nasty ace, Noah Syndergaard on the mound, especially if we get to play at home? At the moment, looking at names like Matt Harvey, David Wright, Lucas Duda, Juan Lagares, Neil Walker and Zack Wheeler on the disabled list, getting back to the World Series seems daunting. However, we have a trick up our sleeve – the reinforcements are coming.
The breezy September schedule has allowed us to rest the struggling Jacob deGrom and the banged up Steven Matz. If those two are healthy and effective, we’ve got a playoff rotation that can match up with anyone. And the latest word from the organization is that slugger Lucas Duda is taking swings and may be back by season’s end. Duda at his best would be a significant offensive upgrade over the struggling James Loney. A wild card win would pit us in a rematch with the Cubs, and then the winner of the Nationals-Dodgers series, should we be able to get past a Cubs team that is much better than last year’s version. Getting back to the World Series is a long shot, but, with momentum on our side and reinforcements on the way, it’s not impossible. Often it’s the hot teams that advance, not necessarily the best teams. Just look back at last year’s post season. Remember, when it comes to this franchise, ya gotta believe.
Off-Topic, but great piece on Matt Bowman and pitching in Vegas. Been a few eye-opening articles of late on what a massive s**t-hole that place is, if only from a facilities point of view. A massive fail by Alderson to not correct this horrendous situation. If the minor league system is a priority, Vegas is a huge black eye — and I don’t care what the apologists say. At best, it’s another Wilpon money grab. Mostly it’s just lazy. Needs to get fixed.
Sorry Matt, don’t mean to high-jack the thread.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/matt-bowman-on-leaving-las-vegas-for-st-louis/
Ignoring the fact that Brian has explained many many times why the Mets are still in Vegas (and I have no freaking clue why you decided to bring the Wilpons in the equation), whose career has been derailed because of Vegas?
Degrom? Noah? Matz?
Oh I’m sorry, are you concerned with the organizational fodder pieces who already had other challenges like Gorski or Greg Peavy?
The Duda thing is interesting. I don’t know if there’s enough time. Would be difficult — emotionally, clubhouse-wise, philosophically — to replace Loney on a postseason roster with Duda.
I know that some feel Loney needs to put dumped in a ditch, but this is a team and he’s been part of the process. It would be a hard move to make.
OTOH, when Epstein fired the Cubs manager to hire Madden, it was also an emotionally difficult thing to do. Cold and brutal and decisive. Sorry, but this guy is better. And yet, Duda is not Madden.
It would be easier if he can get up to the MLB and make positive contributions. Hit some bombs, demonstrate full health & mobility.
We don’t need Duda. We signed Tebow. That makes us the baseball gods’ favorite team, right?
I have serious doubts that Duda will be ready to help the 2016 Mets.
But if he is, he belongs on the roster. This isn’t some green rookie, it’s a guy who’s been with the team since 2010. It would be more damaging for morale if a veteran who came up from the farm system and is a legitimate power threat is kept off the roster for a singles hitter who’s been with the team for three months and hasn’t produced in the last two.
Also, I’m certain Duda would beat Loney in a foot race. I haven’t seen a non-catcher in a Mets uniform run the bases like him since Rusty Staub.
It would be great for a healthy Duda to get back by the end of the season just to ease the minds of both the player and management. He is going into his last year of arbitration this winter and he was was paid $6.75m this year. Any contribution would be icing on the cake.
Matz and deGrom getting healthy and back in the rotation will immensely help the cause and march to the World Series.
Fernando Salas having success in the 7th inning is also an important part of solidifyng the back end of the bullpen for the stretch run.
To my way of thinking, here’s what the Mets have to do, at bare minimum:
Win 5 vs. PHL
Win 4 vs. ATL
Win 1 at WSH
Win 2 at MIA
Win 2 vs. MIN
That’s 14-8 down the stretch and an 88-win season — should be enough for a Wild Card slot.
After that, their fate is in the lap of the gods and the arm of Syndergaard.
If the Cardinals win one of the wild card spots and have the luxury of choosing their starter for the play-in game they would be crazy to go with Adam Wainwright over Carlos Martinez. Wainwright is 10-8 with a 4.61 ERA. He has allowed more than a hit an inning (168ip, 182 hits) while Martinez is 13-7 with a 3.07 ERA. He has allowed just 136 hits in 164 innings pitched. They would be doing the Mets a favor by opting for Wainwright over Martinez. It would be like the Mets choosing Bartolo Colon over Noah Syndergaard.
Well, that one game playoff comes in a hurry. Neither of the teams may be in a position to juggle their rotations beyond the necessity of making that cut.
But then, pitchers no more talented than Bobby Jones have been known to prevail in those situations.
bet you a dollar they start wainwright. He’s their ace, even if he’s having an off year.
Duda comes back and helps what has been a hole at 1B with the bat…Mets take another 13-14 games from those remaining 22 and host WC game vs Giants. Mets win and let’s see what happens next. At that stage, anything can happen if Thor and Degrom are healthy to go with Colon. All you need are 3 starters and a super pen in the playoffs. Maybe, just maybe, Mets are in the Cubbies heads again ? That is who they would be playing. WC winner vs best record team. Dodgers take out Nats, and Mets and Dodgers for NLCS. Tighten your seat belts !
I completely forgot that Niese is also on the DL. Not that it matters.