A lot of Mets fans have never warmed up to Curtis Granderson. He got off to an incredibly bad start with the team in April of 2014 and seemingly fans have held that against him ever since. Or maybe it’s because he doesn’t hit for a shiny average and a lot of people still cling to that as their major judge of offensive production. But regardless if you’re pro or anti-Granderson, he’s been a pretty good barometer of how the team is doing here in 2016.
According to Baseball-Reference, the average NL right fielder has a .758 OPS this year. Here’s Granderson broken down into hot and cold streaks this year, along with his OPS marks and the team’s overall record in those stretches.
| Dates | PA | OPS | W-L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4/3 – 4/30 | 101 | .818 | 15-7 |
| 5/1 – 5/20 | 72 | .508 | 8-11 |
| 5/21 – 7/26 | 228 | .855 | 30-28 |
| 7/27 – 8/16 | 74 | .456 | 7-13 |
| 8/17 – 9/10 | 77 | 1.041 | 15-8 |
These selections were chosen for Granderson’s OPS, not paying any attention to the Mets’ record. For instance, the Mets won on August 16, the last day of Granderson’s cold streak. It would have been easy to have that as the start of his hot streak to make the record look better. But he went 0-4 that day and homered the following game, when they lost. In 306 PA where Granderson is going good, the Mets are 60-43. In the 146 PA where he’s been absolute garbage, the Mets are 15-24.
To be clear, there is a lot more that goes into a team’s record than the exploits of just one player. In 19 games earlier this year, Neil Walker had a 1.228 OPS yet the Mets were just 6-13. But knowing that it’s a team game with many moving part is what makes Granderson’s stretches this year so interesting.
Perhaps it’s not a surprise that when the team’s leadoff hitter goes into a funk, the team doesn’t have a good record. But despite all of their challenges in the middle of the year, with hitters going on the DL and pitchers who struggled to keep making their regularly-scheduled turn, the Mets played over .500 ball when Granderson was putting up an .855 OPS.
The addition of Jose Reyes has allowed the Mets to move Granderson out of the leadoff spot. Perhaps moving forward when he goes through one of his horrible stretches it won’t have such a big effect on the team’s record. But when he’s seemingly able to make a difference in the team’s success, do you want to remove him completely? Maybe the manager could manipulate his batting order to feature Granderson leading off when he’s going good and removing him from the top spot when he goes 7-10 days without hitting a lick, like we’ve seen during his tenure?
We’ve become accustomed to paint-by-number managing, where everything is done to eliminate blame from the manager. When it works, the manager pushed all the right buttons. When it doesn’t work, the player failed to produce. Going against that tide is one of the things that makes Joe Maddon such a great manager. He has one of the leaders for MVP – Kris Bryant – moving back and forth between LF and 3B. Javier Baez played the majority of his games at 3B last year. He hasn’t played there once this season but has played four other positions. Ben Zobrist moves around, too. And he’s batted in every spot in the order except seventh and eighth, starting 17 games or more in four different spots in the batting order.
If the manager of the team with the best record in baseball can move players around the field, shouldn’t every manager have the ability to move personnel where they fit best, whether that’s defensive position or spot in the batting order?
We know that’s not likely to happen with our current GM and manager. Regardless, it’s clear that Granderson still has value to the 2016 Mets. And for those who like to put a premium on what a player does in the post-season, Granderson had a strong 2015 playoffs overall and was one of the few Mets to hit in the World Series.
There has been much discussion about Granderson in the Game Chatters and articles here, wishing we had traded him after his strong 2015 season and wondering now if he has any trade value in the last year of his contract in 2017. It seems to me misguided. Granderson’s BB and K percentage are right in line with what he did last year (both a bit lower) and his ISO is up 26 points. That doesn’t scream a player in decline.
Granderson’s BABIP has dropped 65 points from a year ago. He has a lifetime .296 mark in the category. Last year he recorded a .305 mark and this year it’s down to a .240 BABIP. The hits aren’t falling in for him this season and at least some of that is just luck. Yet he’s been an above-average hitter overall this season despite this bad fortune, with a .770 OPS, a mark that’s gone up 40 points here late in the year.
And late in the year, he’s shown to be playable in CF still, which adds to his value. In the small sample of 133.2 innings, Granderson has a (-0.1) UZR and a +1 DRS. The Mets didn’t want to use him in center but he’s given them essentially league average defensive play. You don’t want to plan on Granderson being your CF but knowing he can still handle the position for a brief stretch is a good thing.
Every player is tradeable and if some club offers the Mets an above-average hitting C or 3B or CF for him, then the Mets should absolutely trade him. But the idea that the Mets should make moving him one of the top priorities of the offseason seems like a mistake to me.
Under the current state of the roster, I would not move him. The Mets would get very little value in a trade, so lets keep him for his final season next year. Part of the problem was using Granderson as a leadoff hitter. This year, Granderson has a .226 batting average with 115 strikeouts and a .321 ob base percentage with only 3 stolen bases. This is not good for a leadoff hitter. Moving him down in the order was a good move. I still state that the Mets still need a good leadoff hitter. Jose Reyes may fill that role. Lets see how he performs for the rest of this year.
In isolation, moving him doesn’t quicken my heart. But as it relates to Conforto, I do see value in clearing space. However, that’s also dependent upon the fate of Jay Bruce and Lucas Duda.
I don’t believe they could get much for Curtis until July, at which point I think you could get prospects.
Curtis getting hot has been a huge part of the team’s good play of late. But as your post also makes clear, the inverse is also true.
He has value
Duda-Grandy-Bruce…at least one must go. It resolves the repetitive talents/LH OF Jam. It lessens salary obligations and makes room for additions to the mix. I;d like thgem to merchandize 2 of them—bring back someone elses Lugo/Gsellman–you need those kind of guys. Bring in some talent.
It clears room for a resign of Cespee….. I figure it will take 3-4 years at 30-35 per…with options/buyouts after the 1st and 3rd/4th year. Tota; deal will be 3-5 and he will be MajorMajor Dollars.
Grandy….he’d do better playing on a lesser schedule, including DH.
agree that at least one of Grandy/Bruce has to go. I’d be inclined to hang on to one to make sure Conforto belongs.
Granderson has been red hot and has played a large part in the playoff drive. When his is hot, he’s hot but when he’s not, he’s not. TC failed to recognize the “not” and kept him in the top of order for too long. The article’s last paragraph sums up how the Mets should handle Granderson this winter.
I’m not really sure this extra analysis has much value over looking at a player’s overall stats. The team OPS during a win is .849 and when they lose its .585 so when a team wins, they get good production from multiple people (which is just stating the obvious to be honest).
For example, Cabrera
4/3-4/30 :15-7, .764 OPS
5/1-6/7 : 16-19, .642 OPS
6/8-7/8 : 14-12, .904 OPS
7/9-7/31 : 7-10, .521 OPS
8/19-9/11 : 15-6, 1.125 OPS
Clearly Granny is not the sole reason the Mets win.
“There has been much discussion about Granderson in the Game Chatters and articles here, wishing we had traded him after his strong 2015 season and wondering now if he has any trade value in the last year of his contract in 2017. It seems to me misguided”
There is a difference between value to the team and trade value. Granny is not a zero on the field and can still help the team win, but trade value depends on salary as well. You’re obviously not going to give up any prospect for a 1 WAR player if you’re also expected to pick up his 15 million tab.
Let’s take a look at 2 close comps in terms of production this year for Granderson that was just traded recently: Kemp and Upton
If i did the math correctly, the Braves took on Kemp for free at ~6million salary for the next 3 years
Upton was also effectively given away for free for about ~5 million to be paid by the Blue Jays.
That means we’re looking at having to eat $7-10 million just to give Granny away. If we wanted something decent in return, we would probably have to eat pretty much all of it.
Or another way to think about it would be to ask yourself what you would pay for 1 year of Granny. Can’t imagine any team would pay more than $8 mil. Then you have to knock some more money off that if you had to give up a prospect.
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> There is a difference between value to a team and trade value. <
Yes. That's exactly my take on Grandy's market value. I don't think there will be any upside to trading him until late July, beyond the negative value (and associated risk) of clearing space and really getting behind Michael Conforto.
I'd be surprised if Granderson is not on the team next season. And, yes, as someone said, his ability to play some CF enhances his value to the Mets (if no one else). I'd look to flip Bruce for prospects.
Bruce for prospects sounds like a good idea. He has just not adapted to N.Y. At midnight, when the bell tolled and Bruce turned into the Jay Bruce of 2015.