Last year’s playoff run was led somewhat equally by players acquired by Omar Minaya and Sandy Alderson. On the Minaya side, there was Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Jeurys Familia, Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda leading the way. On the Alderson side, there was Noah Syndergaard, Bartolo Colon, Travis d’Arnaud, Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes and Curtis Granderson. But here in 2016 the balance has shifted dramatically towards Alderson’s guys. With the loss of Murphy to free agency and the injuries to the rest, it’s Familia feeling awfully lonely.
The headliners for Alderson are trade and free agent acquisitions. But we’re seeing the results of the farm system, too. Conforto made the big impact last year and much was expected of him this season. While he didn’t live up to those expectations, he appears better in September than he has in any month since April.
While a Minaya pickup was used to fetch d’Arnaud and Syndergaard, we see that Alderson acquisitions were used to fetch Cespedes, Addison Reed and Jay Bruce.
This year we’ve seen the promotion of two Alderson first-round picks in Brandon Nimmo (2011) and Gavin Cecchini (2012). Nimmo has been one of the first guys used for pinch-hitting duties, while Cecchini has barely seen action. But by falling behind by a big amount early on Saturday, we got to see three Alderson first-round picks in the field at the same time.
Conforto started in RF and he was later joined by Nimmo in CF and Cecchini at SS. Conforto had two walks and scored a run, Nimmo had an RBI double and Cecchini had two RBI doubles and a run. These extra-base hits were not dunked in fortunate places down the line. Rather they were balls that were well-struck. The Mets announcers were impressed especially with Ceccchini, talking about how he kept his bat level throughout the swing. And the golfers out there no doubt noted how he kept his head down on his swing.
It may not be a big deal with first-round picks playing in blowout September games. But what cannot be swept under the rug so easily is the performance of low-round picks pressed into service because of injuries and thriving. Robert Gsellman, a 13th-round pick in 2011, and Seth Lugo, 34th in 2011, are pitching admirably, with 3.13 and 2.61 ERAs, respectively.
Lugo came up earlier and made nine relief appearances before moving into the rotation. In seven starts, he’s 4-1 and the Mets have won six of those games. He’s beaten the Cardinals and Nationals in this stretch and also pitched well against the Giants in a losing effort. Length hasn’t been a strong point for either of the rookie pitchers but Lugo has been better in this regard, twice having gone seven innings and putting up a 6.2 effort another time.
Gsellman only made one relief appearance before moving into the rotation. While he does not have the shiny won-loss record of Lugo, Gsellman has a 3.54 ERA as a SP with a 2.78 K/BB ratio. He does an excellent job of keeping the ball on the ground and in the park. Gsellman has a 50.6 GB% overall and has allowed just 1 HR in 31.2 IP. His lone relief appearance came against the Cardinals, where he had 3.2 scoreless innings. He’s faced the Nationals twice and in 11.2 IP against them he allowed just 1 ER with 8 Ks.
As fans, we want to see results immediately. Alderson drew criticism from some corners for not having his draft picks succeed quicker. But he was hamstrung by a few different issues, including one that was self-inflicted. Conforto, the first guy to reach the majors, was a college pick. But the early ones were high school guys who we knew were going to take longer to reach the show. And then factor in the injuries suffered, especially to Nimmo and Michael Fulmer, and it makes a little more sense. Also, while the Cubs were drafting in the top five, the Mets were drafting in the 10-15 range. It’s no secret that more stars are drafted in single digits.
It’s too early to make any declarations on the drafts of Alderson. But if nothing else, things look better now than they did in the beginning of June. And early reports on 2016 top pick Justin Dunn are encouraging.
And what’s often forgotten is that very few were singing the praises of Minaya’s drafts in 2010. Murphy didn’t have a position and had injury issues, Duda and Dillon Gee were raw late-season call-ups and Harvey and deGrom were just added. The Minaya farm products who had produced by then were Mike Pelfrey, who few really liked; Jon Niese, who had injury problems of his own, and Ike Davis who was just called up that year because of dismal production at the position.
Five years after his last draft in 2010, Minaya’s drafts looked much better because they had the time needed to move through the system and get established in the majors. In 2021, we’ll have a different view of Alderson’s draft picks than we do now. Maybe Gsellman and/or Lugo develop into a useful long-term piece. Perhaps Dunn or Desmond Lindsay make an impact. And it sure would be nice if Conforto got back on track.
The only thing that seems certain is that we’ll still wish the Mets didn’t throw away a first-round pick on Michael Cuddyer.
They certainly are amazing. The Mets with all of their injuries this year have no business being were they are. However, all Mets fans will take it and hope for October baseball, win or lose. Probably lose, but that is ok. The team is so very deep based on what happened this year and going into next year with all the returnees and the ‘ReplaceMets
‘, they are very deep. Traded Dilson Herrera ?
No problem, look at the depth at 2b even without resigning Neil Walker, which they won’t to use the $ for Cespedes: TJ Rivera, Flores, Cecchini, Reyes.
If David Wright comes back, great. If not, 3b- Reyes, Flores, maybe even K.Johnson, who should be brought back. Clutch KJ, probably won 3 games this year with his timely bat. OF – Even if they let Bruce walk (not a NY guy fit), they still have another year of Granderson (stop snickering, he hit 30 bombs this year, 76 in his 3 years as a Met, where are you replacing that production ?), Conforto for RF, Nimmo, Lagares, and yes, they will pay for Cespedes, who has proven to be a cog, a good teammate and plays hurt. This lineup without him is thin, too thin to win. 1B, probably will resign Duda to a one year “prove it” deal while he warms the spot for Dom Smith. The pitching will be like 8 starters deep !!
Harvey, Thor, DeGrom, Wheeler, Matz, Lugo, Gsellman, and Colon if they don’t sign him back after this year, Mets are nuts. 2017 will field a very deep team even with Bruce and Walker being let go. Now, Mets, go find a starting catcher to go with R. Rivera, and 2017 will be ours !
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This month hasn’t really helped Neil Walker’s case, has it?
Hard to make $16 million quifying offer when it’s very possible he might accept it.
First priority, need clarity on Cespedes very early on.
I’d like to see them trade Bruce. No problem
With another year of Duda at 1B.
Catcher is an issue. Need solid medicals on D’Arnaud. Tough call. He’s been horrendous, but it’s the bum shoulder. Will he (ever) get better?
He won’t accept it. He had too good a year and he can do a showcase or something to show health. Other players have had back surgery like Beltre, Batista, Chris Davis and even Johnny Peralta. Even catchers had back surgery. He won’t accept.
“Hard to make $16 million quifying offer when it’s very possible he might accept it.”
Yes.
(and No Thanks!)
It is quite possible that in 2017 Granderson will blocking Nimmo as the centerfield platoon. Bruce could be blocking Conforto in right field. Walker could be blocking Flores at 2B who would be blocking Cecchini. Reyes and Wright are blocking TJ Rivera. Gsellmann and Lugo will have a tough time cracking the rotation. It seems that all these players will have a better than average career and they are proving that they can perform under the pressure of a playoff drive. Alderson has done an excellent job.
I don’t mean to get into an off-season thread at this moment in time — so I’m not going address all the issues here — but I think if pitchers were healthy, this was the winter when Sandy was going to trade one of the established arms (Harvey, Wheeler, maybe Matz). It doesn’t seem possible right now, selling far too low. The pipeline is a little clogged.
I’m not certain about the market prospects for Walker at all. Don’t have a handle on it. He’s not that sexy a ballplayer when it comes to free agency. A solid guy coming off back surgery, are teams really going to offer him huge contracts? One year in NYC at $16 million might look pretty good to him. I’m not positive he’d turn down a QO. A tough, strategic decision all around. I’m still undecided. If Mets lose Cespedes, harder to let Walker, er, walk. Cecchini moves to 2B in winter league, still have option on Reyes (with Wright planning a comeback, oy), Flores, Rivera, and Rosario coming hard. Cabrera is a guy with a position shift in his future. He’s the Mets top-step guy; a real leader.
Duda….Wright…..Walker…Back—Back—Back…….. I kind of hate Chris Berman
Pass.
This has been a good year for Sandy Alderson’s baseball reputation. He brought in his Big Catch (Cespee), and he was resourceful and productive with the Patch Guys—Reyes and Loney. His Farm has provided the biggest Patch for an unimaginable hole—the Starting Pitching…. with guys who have been lightly regarded/dismissed as prospects.
In an incredible stretch of sour luck, he’s actually been good and lucky with his moves.
I believe in Conforto…and the rest of the system shows decent possibilities at the top, with some possible impact guys to follow.
I will also say “Thanks!” for the last 30 or so “Playoff Games”