OK, we’ve done the Kumbaya thing about the 2016 Mets, the plucky group that overcame obstacles to make the playoffs. Now it’s time to turn our thoughts to the 2017 team and instead of being the scrappy team that beats the odds, we want to assemble a team that dominates the opposition and waltzes into the playoffs with a division title under our belt.
First up is All-Star Bartolo Colon. This past offseason, he signed a one-year deal with the understanding he would be moved to the bullpen once Zack Wheeler returned to the mound. Well, Wheeler never returned and Colon ended up leading the team in both Wins (15) and Innings (191.2). In three years with the Mets, Colon is 21st in franchise history with 44 victories. Only six players in team history have won more games in a three-year stretch and they are the most celebrated hurlers the team has ever had.
David Cone
Jon Matlack
Al Leiter
Jerry Koosman
Dwight Gooden
Tom Seaver
So, it’s a no-brainer to bring him back, right? Well, not exactly. The hope was that at the end of 2016, the Mets would be trotting out Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard and Wheeler. As we know, that didn’t happen. But Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo got shots and both showed promise. So, that’s seven pitchers for the rotation without Colon.
It would be foolish to expect Wheeler to be ready to go on Opening Day with all of the setbacks he had in 2016. But the other six should be ready to go at the start of Spring Training. You never have enough pitching, as the Mets and particularly the Dodgers proved once again this past year. But do you want to pay the freight for a return engagement with Colon?
Recently, Matthew Cerrone said this over at MetsBlog in regards to Colon:
The Mets have to (and will) try to re-sign him. He’ll be 44 years old next season. So, I bet he can be had for another one-year deal, probably worth around $10 million. And, if it took a second-year guarantee or option to get it done, I think the Mets would do it.
FanGraphs had Colon’s season being worth $23.2 million last year, right in line with his production the previous two seasons with the Mets. It’s not unrealistic for Colon to be seeking that much money. No one would blame him if he set the bar even higher.
However, only 31 pitchers in MLB history have competed at their age 44 season. Only six of those logged double-digit win totals – two knuckleball pitchers, three lefties and Nolan Ryan. Colon is at the point in his career where it can fall apart at any moment and no one can say it’s a surprise. He’s got smarts, he’s got guile and he’s pitching like no one else in the majors. Those things are all great.
But his margin for error is not all that large.
The Mets are not pinching pennies like they were a few years ago but they’re not running Yankees-size payrolls, either. Is it really in their best economic interests to spend eight digits on a 44 year old who could fall apart at any minute? Especially if the commitment, as Cerrone implies, has to be for two seasons?
There are two ways where it could make sense, although it would require a level of manipulation not seen in Metsland since George Bamberger was in the manager’s chair. The Mets didn’t have (m)any good starters back in 1982, with Craig Swan and Pat Zachry as the best of the bunch. Bamberger’s response was to use 14 different starting pitchers, not one of whom didn’t also pitch out of the pen.
With the relative abundance of starting pitchers the Mets would have if they brought back Colon, some of them are going to have to pitch out of the pen. The easiest thing to do would be to make the 2016 rookies – Gsellman and Lugo – be those guys. But just because something’s easy doesn’t make it correct.
Imagine – it’ll never happen so you have to imagine – Colon being used primarily out of the pen but used to start on occasion. And there are two ways this could happen. One would be to have him in the rotation anytime the Mets play the Phillies or the Braves. Colon is 10-3 as a Met against the Phillies and 6-3 against Atlanta. Let him clean up against those teams and have him miss starts against the Dodgers, Nationals and Cubs.
Or, they could use him like the White Sox used Ted Lyons back in 1939-1942. In that four-year span, Lyons made 85 starts and the overwhelming majority of them were on Sundays. In 1940, he made 22 starts and 20 of them were on Sundays. After going 31-31 combined from 1936-1938, Lyons went 52-30 the next four years, in his age 38-41 seasons. Lyons was among the many, many MLB players who served in World War II, which essentially brought his career to a close, although he did pitch in five games in 1946 at age 45.
Anyway, back to Colon. He’s a fun guy to root for but it’s hard to imagine spending the money he would command on someone who might be the team’s seventh-best pitcher if everyone is healthy. Colon’s durability has been a tremendous plus the past three seasons. Yes, so far the Mets have won this game of Russian Roulette with the health of a guy on the wrong side of 40. But how long will that luck hold out? No one has any clue.
The risk of staying healthy and effective at his advanced baseball age, combined with the presence of other quality starting pitchers make paying the going rate a deal breaker for me in bringing Colon back in 2017.
But if the Mets are hell bent on doing it, here’s an idea – give him the Qualifying Offer. Earlier, MLBTR estimated that the Qualifying Offer would be $16.7 million. Would you rather pay that for one year or $20 million plus on a two-year deal? Only 13 players in MLB history have pitched at age 45 – including Lyons and his five games – which is the age Colon would be on the back end of a two-year contract.
Well, yes! Considering the somewhat unclear future as the injured starters come back, a one year contract would certainly make sense as insurance
Unless he seems amenable to another deal like this past seasons, I really like the idea of QO-ing Bart- especially considering that he’s potentially the best/most productive FA pitcher this year.
The QA is definitely the way to go unless Bartolo is willing to sign a low ball contract with incentives.
Another pitching starved contender will offer him more money.
I don’t think he’s going anywhere, unless he’s offered multiple years by someone else.
The Mets were able to secure Colon for the 2014 season because they offered him a two year contract when no other team would give him one at age 41. He was coming off a superb 2013 season of 18-6 with a 2.65 ERA. He is now going to be 44 and his FIP and K9 have regressed in every year that he has been a Met. If the other teams were shy in 2014 then they should be even more cautious in 2017. Therefore the qualifying offer idea is a poor one. Colon signed last year at a lower salary than his 2015 salary so I think he would be willing to sign a one year $10m contract this time with the Mets, whom he his very comfortable with. Colon is probably a luxury that the Mets can afford as insurance for the current four injured starters so at around that price I would sign him.
Agree with 100%!
I believe they will get him on another one year deal. For the first time, I confess, I support his signing/re-signing enthusiastically.
Wheeler, Harvey, deGrom and Matz are Post Surgical now, more than Post-Season. Noah also had a bone chip—is he also a surgery candidate?
The late season additions of Lugo and Gsellman reinforce a shaky rotation…although it’s a rotation with major upsides. I would not worry about the volume there. I think it’s a strength and it’s “insurance”…and the cost is still low, as a staff.
“FanGraphs had Colon’s season being worth $23.2 million last year, right in line with his production the previous two seasons with the Mets. It’s not unrealistic for Colon to be seeking that much money. No one would blame him if he set the bar even higher”
Lololol. About the most ridiculous thing you’ve ever written.
Why you even bother to look at that horrific and utterly useless WAR multiplier is beyond me. There are so many problems with it that it’s a crime to even post it to the public. And using it to predict a future contract without adjusting for other variables such as age and trends?
I mean, Harvey and his nearly 5 ERA was “worth” 15.8 million this year? Kelly Johnson and his 80 games was “worth” 10 mil? Our old pal Kirk Nieuwenhuis would certainly deserve 8 mil for his work this year.
Yeah, that’s some solid advice.
Put no weight on a metric produced by the most respected baseball site in the country. Instead, heed the bleatings of a self-important anonymous internet guy.
Gotcha.
Regarding Ted Lyons, Bill James wrote on his later career role as a Sunday afternoon starter for the White Sox. He always wondered how the Sox dealt with the disruption that having one guy on seven days rest brought to the rest of the rotation.
Then he realized: back in the day, most Sundays they played double headers; so, rather than disrupting things, slotting Lyons in there actually kept the rotation intact.
This would not be true today, of course.
True dat.
I wish that we weren’t so dogmatic about starting every five days as often as possible. James also talked about how Casey Stengel would alter his rotation to have Whitey Ford face the best teams in the league and when Houk took over, he put Ford on a strict rotation.
Unequivocally, yes.
8 pitchers is not really 8 pitchers when 4 are coming back from injury, 2 have only had a small sample size and 1 is 44.
I feel reasonably confident that deGrom and Harvey will be back in 2017. Wheeler has missed two full years and with those wonky mechanics I’m not sure he’s long for baseball. Matz, like Travis d’Arnaud, appears to be constructed out of Legos.
MattyMets, did you mean Lugos?
I am ambivalent, not knowing the budget or how the team intends to spend in the offseason.
They could save money here. There will be cheaper insurance policies available.
That said, in isolation, he’s worth the money. He’s been a great Met. I was against the first signing and proven wrong. I was in favor of the most recent one-year deal. On the next one, it’ll all depends on all the other moves. In the land of contingencies, I want the “saved” money to go toward offensive production and the bullpen.
There is no “in isolation” move, except for Cespedes, the first priority.
Of course, Colon has to come back….he has been a solid contributor. He is a magnet for media coverage. Another one year-deal makes sense whether its via the QO or not.
Colon sells shirts, tickets, and advertisements. He will be back, especially at an affordable price, like this passed year. That leaves money for the bats.
Assuming Matz is ready in April and Wheeler is also, neither one is expected to pass 170 or so innings. Figuring on about 22 starts each, that leaves 20 starts, excluding playoffs. So, while Lugo and Gsellman are still around, they are also cheap and would be attractive trade chips, i.e.: for a catcher? Colon would be a great sixth starter and can be moved in July, or the always convenient bullpen. Alderson is destined to keep Collins, Colon and the coaching posse until the end of next year.
Keeping the youngsters in extended spring training and learning from the Harvey debacle, would allow Colon and the young pitcher left to start until mid-May, some six starter rotations, and then bring on the studs for the stretch run. That should also allow for a few starts in the playoffs.
The idea of a “qualifying offer” for Colon does not make sense, since it would guarantee him a $16 million salary. Teams make a QO when players seek multiple-year, high-end contracts.
With Colon, it’s simply a matter of the two willing parties agreeing to modest terms. If the Mets want him, he will stay.
My only reservation is that I assume the Mets can’t have everything. They can’t sign Cespedes, Walker, Bruce, go to arbitration with Reed, try to lock up Noah, acquire a catcher, etcetera.
Jimmy P, I’m in agreement about the qualifying offer. When I read Matthew Cerone’s piece on this I nearly spit out my coffee. I think it makes sense to bring him back but he does not have perceived value outside of this organization. Teams are not going to be competing with each other to sign an overweight 44-year-old to a multi-year deal. If that was the case there’s really be hope for me.
Hahaha…Matty…extremely funny comment….