The Arizona Fall League has become a tool for the MLB. Teams evaluate their potential impact players for the next season, try new positions on for size and allow 29 year old former college football players to establish some credibility.
David Roseboom – LHRP: In 2016 Roseboom spent all of his season pitching for AA Binghamton. During that time he had a crisp 1.87 ERA and amassed a healthy WHIP and K/9. This fall he played in 8 games and continued his success against (what should be) higher competition. He put together a 1.04 ERA, 12 strikeouts and surrendered only 4 hits. The one issue this fall were that his walk numbers were uncharacteristically high.
Corey Taylor – RHRP: This past season Taylor served as the closer for Port St. Lucie. He did a very solid job of it, producing a 1.87 ERA. He’s not got the power numbers of most closers but his control is very good and he manages to get results. In the AFL he continued his trend of solid pitching and great control although in his 10.1 innings of work he also gave up 10 hits.
Marcos Molina – RHSP: Molina spent most of 2016 injured. At 21, he’s a little young for the league but the Mets wanted him to get some work in. His results were not great and were not terrible. One troubling thing was how few strikeouts he netted.
Corey Oswalt – RHSP: When the Mets traded for Yoenis Cespedes in 2015 they left their farm system heavily depleted and Oswalt was one of the few pitchers that seemed to have potential. Unfortunately it seems that potential might not be much more than a AAAA pitcher as a disappointing season in Port St. Lucie and a mediocre AFL performance seem to indicate the talent isn’t quite there.
Gavin Cecchini – SS/2B: The Mets sent Cecchini to to the AFL to have him work at a new position. Starting in 2015, he suddenly seemed to blossom as a hitter and his fielding just crumbled. Part of that could be the challenging Las Vegas infield but it looks less and less likely that Cecchini will be a shortstop in the majors. The offensive numbers (helped by his terrific OBP) were still good and although he still played mostly shortstop he seems to be a fit at the less challenging position.
Matt Oberste – 1B/3B: The AFL did not go well for Oberste, who had only 1 hit and 1 walk in his 29 at bats. We will hope that he finds his footing again in AAA as he was one of the more optimistic stories of 2016.
Champ Stuart – OF: The AFL has a short season and short seasons can be very misleading. Take these 12 games from Stuart. He had a batting line of .372/.400/.535 with 8 stolen bases and 5 extra base hits. Those numbers are great but his 11 strikeouts remind us that those stats are mostly a misleading sample size of a player hitting the AFL on a hot streak.
Tim Tebow – OF: The professional debut for Tebow went about as poorly as could be expected. I’m not being harsh to him, I’m just saying that starting him out against AFL competition wasn’t likely to make him an instant success. Now, the question of where Tebow belongs was almost the topic of today’s article but the answer is not going to be starting him in AAA and hoping for lightning in a bottle. That doesn’t mean the answer is to put the 29 year old in Brooklyn where he’ll be playing with kids fresh out of college and others who aren’t old enough to drink. With spring training and more time to prepare I think that AA or A+ are both realistic options for him.
David, sorry to share something not related to the post but saw this regarding the Mets this morning:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/offseason-outlook-new-york-mets-7.html
I see two non-Cespedes options that could have an impact for the Mets.
Mark Trumbo: Who can split time with Duda at first and play a little outfield
Ian Desmond: Who can play center field and add some speed to our painfully slow lineup
FWIW: I don’t want any free agent or trade for a new 2B. We have Jose Reyes, Wilmer Flores and Gavin Cecchini.
Let’s not forget that Trumbo just played in one of the most favorable righty hitting stadiums and Desmond was in another one with a high performing lineup. Now, I’m not looking to take anything away from their seasons but in substituting Cespedes into either player’s situation make me feel his numbers would be even better.
Let’s not forget, Cespedes had some protection in Walker but wasn’t in a potent lineup at all. Further, Citifield leans towards the pitcher’s side of neutral while those other ballparks very much have a hitter’s advantage.
I can’t tell you that Cespedes is irreplaceable, because no one is, but in today’s free agent market I’d rather spend a bit more to get Cespedes and then trade him in two years. We all know that power never loses value and you could get another Syndergaard/TDA type deal. I think that’s very possible and it keeps your system strong.
You know Tex I agree. Sandy shouldn’t be afraid of a five or six year contract. He should begin at four years Thirty Mil. Someone offers five give three with an option for another two and the same for a six year deal (four plus two). Front load the money to make a deal more attractive in a trade after three years if no option is excepted in either case. If he wants a no trade he takes less money, he wants an opt out he takes less money for that also. Ces wants to and likes to play with the Mets. Sandy needs to be fair but still stand his ground.
It is curious that Cecchini is still getting most of his time at SS.
Seems like a showcase, rather than any likelihood he’ll ever play there for the Mets.
I thought he had an outside shot at 2B, but if the Mets are intent upon handing Neil Walker $17.2 million — wow, that’s a lot for “good” player — than Cecchini will either be moved or play another year in Vegas.
What’s the plan for him? What you think, Dave? Do you believe in him?
Cecchini appears to be a “Good Enough” player to be a starter.
He’s going to have a high OBP and drive some balls for extra bases. He’s not going to be a start… but neither is Neil Walker.
“wow, that’s a lot for “good” player — than Cecchini will either be moved or play another year in Vegas.”
This is how i view it as a finance guy. You are not only getting Walker, but you are also the seller of an option. If walker doesn’t take the option, the seller profits (sorry if this is too financy)
Not sure what your number is, but i’ll say Walker is probably worth 15 mil on a 1 year deal. That means that the Mets are risking 2.2 million for the chance at a first round pick. I’ll also say the value of a first round comp pick is worth 5 mil. If there’s a 50/50 chance that he’ll accept, the “expected” value from that option would be 2.5 and since the Mets are only risking 2.2, it’s worth it.
of course, all these numbers are completely my projection and you may have a differing opinion on those numbers and thus come to a different conclusion, but you do have to factor in the option part and not just think of it is as “Is Walker worth 17.2 mil?”
To me the big question is: Do you believe that Walker can repeat what he did in 2016 over 140 games next year? If your answer to that is yes, then he’s easily worth the QO. But I don’t blame anyone who thinks he won’t be able to repeat either his power or his defensive output of last year.
Outstanding breakdown Name. IMO, in today’s baseball finances, Walker may not be worth $17.2 but he must be worth around $15. Granny is getting $15 (even though we all felt the Mets had to overpay back in 2013 because players didn’t want to come here) and Bruce is getting $13 and that’s considered “affordable”. So, why isn’t a second baseman that has a .775 career OPS and a good glove not worth at least what Granny is getting?
I agree on your financial analysis. Obviously, with $17.2 million, you retain an asset.
I’ve often described team-building as a finger puzzle. One piece slides over, that opens up a new hole and blocks a different piece. Sometimes you have to create a hole in order to make the move you really desire three steps down the line, and so on.
So there’s a simple, alternative way of looking at $17.2 for a second baseman. Not about whether Walker is “worth” that kind of money or not. Because none of these moves is made in isolation, which is my point in the paragraph above.
If the Mets give Walker $17 million, it is money that’s not available to address other needs. Maybe not for Cespedes, or for catcher, and so on.
It’s all inter-connected.
Also: Is Colon “worth” $10 million. Sure, anybody with an abacus would tell us so. But context is everything. For some teams, he’d be more worth it than for others.
I still want Cespedes. And Walker, too.
And, honestly, Fowler would be a fine addition as well.
The Wilpons should not be afraid to spend this off-season. SNY is booming, the Mets are bringing in fans, the moment is now.
I can’t imagine if there’s a trade market for Curtis. I don’t know what it would be for Bruce. It’s hard to speculate. One thing, though, is that I don’t see SA as a GM who likes to orchestra a series of moves. So I realize I’m in fantasy land.
I’ll focus on Molina here… the key focus should be 3 things: Velocity, Movement, Health. He’s been grounded for a while, so you just hope that you can check those big three boxes going forward. If he sustained some control and command, those are big bonuses.
Those AFL guys are well developed high level hitters—you need some Special Sauce and a Plan to K those guys. Let’s track Molina after his first 5-10 MILB stats—that should provide a better idea of his outlook.
Everything about your post is correct and well said.
Eraff, it is with this mindset that I wouldn’t add Molina to the 40 man roster just yet, and I don’t expect anyone to take him; too raw.
I also agree with David that your post was contrite and knowledgeable.
Tex and Dave…you guys have also had some excellent Posts!…and Dave has certainly recovered from that disastrous trade!!! 😉