There are a lot of moving parts in the Mets’ offseason. While a few things, such as picking up the options on Jay Bruce and Jose Reyes, and having Yoenis Cespedes opt out, have moved from the “likely” to “actual” column, there are still many unknowns. And a lot of these unknowns are inter-connected. Perhaps the one area that’s the least dependent upon what happens elsewhere – as long as we ignore overall salary – is what to do at catcher.
The Mets ended the 2016 season in a time share at the position, with Travis d’Arnaud and Rene Rivera splitting time. From September 1 until the end of the season, both players finished with exactly 54 plate appearances. Neither catcher distinguished themselves offensively in this stretch, as d’Arnaud posted a .560 OPS and Rivera notched a .543 mark.
Rivera was everything the Mets could have hoped for when they picked him up off the scrap heap. He was a solid defensive catcher who occasionally ran into a home run on offense. He somehow posted a better than average CS% despite having to catch Noah Syndergaard, who teams ran on every chance they got. Rivera’s a great guy to have as your backup catcher. But if he’s playing 3-4 times a week, you have a problem.
When the Mets traded R.A. Dickey, d’Arnaud was thought by most to be the key player they received in return. He was billed as a two-way catcher with star potential on both sides. However, his defense was bad when he first came to the majors. Since then, he’s improved with his PB and WP allowed rates, is generally well-regarded by pitchers for his game calling but is viewed by fans as a defensive liability because of his inability to control the opposition’s running game. While he was above average in this regard in 2015, he was poor in 2016.
But even if he had been the second coming of Johnny Bench behind the plate last year, it would have been a disappointing season for what he did offensively. He didn’t hit for a good average, he didn’t have a good OBP and his slugging was equivalent to a backup middle infielder. For the year, d’Arnaud finished with a .629 OPS, nearly 200 points lower than the previous season and 314th out of 353 players in the majors to amass at least 200 PA in 2016.
On top of that, d’Arnaud spent considerable time on the DL yet again.
Sandy Alderson and company have to make the internal evaluation if last year was a blip and that d’Arnaud is still a starting-caliber catcher. Or if the position needs to be upgraded. To me, either choice is a defensible one. On one hand, you’ve got a guy who’s one year removed from putting up a 126 OPS+ while throwing out 33% of opposing baserunners. In his career with the Braves, Brian McCann put up a 117 OPS+ and never had a CS% that high and he got a 5-year, $85 million contract when he was a free agent.
On the other hand, d’Arnaud has yet to play more than 108 games in the majors in a season and he was simply bad last year. Can the Mets put all of their eggs in the comeback basket? In some ways, that feels like wishful thinking for a club in win-now mode.
Acquiring Jonathan Lucroy at the trading deadline last year would have been an ideal solution. But that didn’t happen and it’s unlikely that Lucroy is available right now. Teams generally don’t trade catchers as good as Lucroy and if they do, the price is usually exorbitant. So, let’s see what’s available on the free agent market. It’s actually not an awful year to be looking for a catcher. MLBTR lists 18 guys and while many of these are closer to Rivera than Lucroy, there are talented receivers available. Here’s the list of free agent catchers who amassed at least 200 PA last year, with d’Arnaud included for comparison sake.
| Age | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | 1 | Wilson Ramos | 123 | 523 | 28 | 58 | 148 | 25 | 0 | 22 | 80 | 35 | 79 | .307 | .354 | .496 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alex Avila | 105 | 209 | 29 | 19 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 38 | 78 | .213 | .359 | .373 | |||||||||
| 3 | Carlos Ruiz | 95 | 233 | 37 | 21 | 53 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 27 | 33 | .264 | .365 | .348 | |||||||||
| 4 | Kurt Suzuki | 90 | 373 | 32 | 34 | 89 | 24 | 1 | 8 | 49 | 18 | 48 | .258 | .301 | .403 | |||||||||
| 5 | Jason Castro | 88 | 376 | 29 | 41 | 69 | 16 | 3 | 11 | 32 | 45 | 123 | .210 | .307 | .377 | |||||||||
| 6 | Matt Wieters | 87 | 464 | 30 | 48 | 103 | 17 | 1 | 17 | 66 | 32 | 85 | .243 | .302 | .409 | |||||||||
| 7 | Nick Hundley | 87 | 317 | 32 | 30 | 75 | 20 | 1 | 10 | 48 | 25 | 65 | .260 | .320 | .439 | |||||||||
| 8 | Chris Iannetta | 75 | 338 | 33 | 23 | 62 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 38 | 83 | .210 | .303 | .329 | |||||||||
| 9 | Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 71 | 292 | 31 | 30 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 38 | 41 | 104 | .171 | .284 | .346 | |||||||||
| 10 | Travis d’Arnaud | 69 | 276 | 27 | 27 | 62 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 50 | .247 | .307 | .323 | |||||||||
| 11 | A.J. Pierzynski | 46 | 259 | 39 | 15 | 54 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 6 | 29 | .219 | .243 | .304 |
Unsurprisingly, we see d’Arnaud near the bottom of this list, beating out only Pierzynski, who has all but announced his retirement. On the other end of the spectrum, we have Ramos, who picked a great time to have a career year. In 2015, Ramos had a .616 OPS. His season-ending injury will hurt his free agent contract. But he still figures to get more money and more years than the Mets would prefer to invest.
Avila has injury problems of his own and did not hit in a brief sample when he returned from the DL last year. Ruiz is not an option as a starting catcher. But the next four guys are all interesting to consider.
Suzuki has been all over the map in his performance. He was solid last year for the Twins and a shade better than that in 2014. But in 2015, he posted the same OPS+ as d’Arnaud did last year. He used to be a good defensive player but he’s fallen off considerably the last few years. He’s not a sexy choice by any means but you could easily win a World Series if Suzuki was your worst starter.
Castro looked like a hot property after his All-Star season in 2013. But he’s been eaten up by strikeouts ever since. Maybe he’s beyond help. But he’s solid defensively, he’s got power and he’ll take a walk. He just feels like a guy with excess potential value. It’s not a preferred option but if you’re convinced d’Arnaud is a hopeless case, you could talk yourself into Castro being a superior choice.
Now we’re at the guy that a lot of people seem interested in. A former first-round pick and four-time All-Star, Wieters has the name value that a lot of people like. But when you move past reputation and look at actual performance, Wieters loses a lot of luster. He’s got injury problems of his own, having played just 101 games over the 2014-15 seasons. Wieters recorded a .704 OPS in 2013 and a .711 mark last year, in his two most recent healthy years. That’s a lot better than 2016 d’Arnaud but let’s be honest – it’s not anything about which to get eight-figures excited.
Also, he had a noticeable H/R split last year, posting a .740 OPS in Camden Yards and a .687 road mark. His lifetime marks are much closer to average but it’s not an encouraging sign when a guy who’s in decline has his most recent numbers propped up by his home park. Another thing to give pause about Wieters are his numbers against LHP, as ideally the Mets would get someone who could help balance the lineup. Starting with 2011, here are his yearly OPS numbers against southpaws: 1.124, .908, .872, .799, .728 and .651 last year.
On top of all of that, there’s the possibility that the Orioles might extend him the Qualifying Offer (QO.) An Orioles blog recently ran a poll asking if they should extend the QO to Wieters and over half of the respondents said yes. Wieters made over $15 million last year, so it wouldn’t be a huge raise over what they paid him last season. If you were Wieters and the Orioles extended the QO, would you take it? My answer would be yes, as it doesn’t seem likely that a team is waiting to hand him a multi-year McCann contract. So, Wieters may not even make it to the open market.
Hundley has spent the last two seasons in Colorado. He actually hit better on the road last year rather than in Mile High but in 2015 he had a .957 OPS in home games compared to a .630 mark in road contests. Perhaps even more damning is that in nine years in the majors, he’s only played 100 games in a season twice, with a high of 114. He doesn’t seem to me like a viable starting option, but as MLBTR recently listed him as a possibility for the Mets, he’s here for completeness sake.
And as long as we’re talking about completeness another name to consider is Geovany Soto. He’s got durability issues but over his last four injury-plagued years, he has a .744 OPS. He’ll turn 34 in January and might be worthwhile on a one-year deal. Soto did not amass 200 PA last year, which is why he didn’t make the above chart.
Bottom line is that catching is hard and players like McCann, who can log 120 or more games in 10 out of 11 seasons (yes, aided by the DH here recently but still) are by far the exception, rather than the rule. Ramos, Avila and Wieters – the cream of this year’s free agent catching crop – all have recent injury histories on their resume. Do you want to pay the going rate for one of those guys, or have d’Arnaud at his expected arbitration figure of $1.7 million?
My opinion is that d’Arnaud should get one more year to show he can be the guy he was in 2015 over 120+ games. The Mets should bring back Rivera, too, and perhaps have him as the personal catcher for Syndergaard. But let d’Arnaud get the majority of starts and hope that his bat wakes up from its 2016 slumber.
Some team will sign Wieters to a big contract and almost immediately have buyer’s remorse. And there’s little chance Ramos repeats his contract year, especially after tearing his ACL. The Mets should stay out of the catchers market.
Yeah, it will be real interesting to see how Ramos’ market develops. He almost has to go to an AL team at this point.
Get McCann from the YAnks. Duda for McCann might work.
Thats ridiculous. The Yankees have plety of options better than Duda at 1B. And the last thing we need is another LH hitter.
The problem with TdA is simple: the stretch for the pitching we think we have is running out. TdA is 28 yo and has not shown he is an every day major leaguer. I cant with any happiness say, lets keep experimenting with a guy who is terrible on offense, and not good on defense. One more year…I dont have time for this experiment when we have plenty of others to deal with.
I’ll take Wieters and pay the 8 figs. I’d look hard into Ramos as well. The long and short of it is that there is no acceptable combinaion of TdA, KP, and Rivera. We cannot forfeit an entire position on the field.
I understand the frustration.
I just have a hard time believing a $15 million-plus contract to Wieters is the answer when we have (maybe) $50 million to spend.
I hear us saying players past 30 are at or past peak and beginning the slope down. At 30, Wieters has had a great career, even with injury, leading to a 4x AS (dont yell at me, I get it), 2x GG, SS. TdA begins next season at *age 28* continuing with the experiment that maybe there is something special in there, while he should be playing in his peak performance years. Say anything you want, but that doesnt do much for me. All the injuries, but especially concussions makes him 1 play from done. Hey Matt, how would you like to pop up I-95 for a few years and catch the staff of a lifetime? Thought you might like that. Can’t wait to see you in PSL come Feb.
Weiters has been more injured than TDA the last 3 years and his last above average season was in 2012…
He’s still living off his draft pick status.
He had TJ surgery…we all know thats a singular injury that takes time to recover from. Not the on-again-off-again injuries of TdA. And after recovery, Wieters played in 124 games. I think hes good for 20 HR, and solid as can be behind the plate.
I believe TDA is a better hitter than he showed in 2016.
But I understand the impatience. I just hope they don’t shoot themselves in the foot trying to address it.
As most of you know by now, I am no fan of TDA,but Brian makes a really good argument here for giving him another shot. He’s cheap, young, and familiar with our pitchers. My preference would be to package him in a trade and bring in a guy like Derek Norris. But I wouldn’t force it.
One thing I think we can all agree on is that Rivera was a nice pick up. He’s cheap, plays excellent defense and makes a terrific backup. I think the stats we need to be looking at are on defense. If pitching is our focus and we accept that we can’t get Posey, Molina or Lucroy, then we need a defender.
I’ve been very disappointed in Kevin Plawecki thus far. At this point he hasn’t even convinced us he can be a serviceable backup.
There were 33 National League catchers with 100 AB’s or more. None of the three Met catchers ranked in the top 15 offensively therefore the Met catching core were all backend, backup catchers offensively. Rivera did crack the top 15 defensively (based on Fangraphs) but only at 13th which is still much better than d’Arnaud and Plawecki. The Mets need to upgrade this position to a better player than Rivera and have the new player become their starting catcher or at least a platoon player. The Mets could then keep d’Arnaud and/or Plawecki as backups because neither has proven themselves as starting catchers. d’Arnaud and Plawecki are both younger, controlled, and have a higher ceiling than the 33 year old Rivera. Rene Rivera is not the solution as a starter.
Jason Castro Stats is only 29, a better defensive and offensive catcher than Rivera as indicated by his carrer splits of 232/309/390/699 93 OPS+. He bats left handed with a split vs RHP of 247/328/424/753. He had an off 2016 season in which he was paid $5M. Wieters would be my other alternative but at present his market and status makes it too early to determine if he is worth the draft choice(?) and money.
I like this reasoning. Let d’Arnaud fight his way back for more playing time. Or fade away.
Never been a believer in Plawecki, but that shouldn’t stop him.
I should add that I’m not a believer in catching stats.
Wieters isn’t worth it. McCann would be the best choice. The Yankees will want young pitching in return. Would still keep dArnaud because he is cheap. He may benefit from playing some games at AAA. Brian has a good argument for keeping him for one more year.
McCann is a terrible choice. The last thing this team needs is another LHB. Why on earth do you think that is good? The Yankees have a catcher of the future. Even still I imagine Cash will want a lot for McCann, and sending any young talent across town to help them get rid of a bad contract mystifies me.
The only way that McCann makes sense is if Cespedes comes back and the Mets have an excess of Granderson or Bruce and the Yankees are willing to take one of them.
The Catching didn’t hit a lick in 2016, and they made the Playoffs. I’d Trade one of the Catchers and any $10-15 OF/IB player Million the Yanks would Swap for McCann…His Lefty Bat in 100 or so Games would be a Huge Boost. I’m not holding my Breath on a Yankee Trade!
2nd Plan is to make the existing catchers work—-and devote 37-50 million to Cespedes and other players. It is my strongest belief that CES+$20 million of other players is greater than Duda+Grandy+Bruce+Walker….. that’s about $50 Million.
My Best Preference is Ces+Grandy+5/10 million of More Players. I’d easily say goodbye to Duda, Bruce, Walker to accomplish that.
Why on earth would the Spankees trade for one of our lame catchers when they have a superstar taking over, and some infielder when they have Greg Bird, Starlin Castro, Didi Gregorious and Chase Headley?
The idea of adding LH hitters when that is all we have for power (Grandy, Duda, Bruce, Conforto) and propose trades that are so utterly preposterous makes me want to watch election coverage. Im imagining how that would look:
1. Reyes L/R
2. Grandy L
3. Duda L
4. McCann L
5. Bruce L
6. Conforto L
That couldnt go wrong.
A LH Catcher, especially a good hitter, would add imensely to the proiduction of the position.
I am very much opposed to Grandy-Walker-Duda-Bruce on this Roster…. I’d prefer at least 2 less of them..I specifically Prefer Grandy and I would Lose/Trade the Others if possible…with a target of Signing Ces with their Money
Reyes 3b
Grandy/Lagares cf
Conforto RF
Cespedes LF
McCann/”RH Catcher”
Cabrera SS
Flores 1b
Cheech 2b
Pitcher
I’d like to see this…plus some bench depth
Wow. Well, that would be something for sure. Its wholly detached from reality however.
OK…Sign Ces..drop McCann…Keep Duda…. Trade Bruce.
Reyes3b
Grandy/Lego
Conforto
Ces
Duda
Cabrera
Cheech
d’Arnaud
Pitcher
Flores, Kelly, Catcher, 24th Player, 25th Player on Bench
A catcher (or catcher-turned-outfielder) I would keep my eye out for is Blake Swihart of the Red Sox. The Sox moved him off catching partly due to his defense but also because they are deep at the position with Sandy Leon as the starter, Bryan Holaday as his backup and a very good defensive catcher, Christian Vazquez at AAA.
If the Sox break our heart and sign Cespedes then you know he becomes their left fielder and Swihart has even less of an opening. Same too if the Sox sign or trade for a different high profile left fielder.
I’m sure Swihart would cost plenty but I think he’d be a solid upgrade over d’Arnaud.
Cespedes won’t be welcomed back to Boston and they need arms more than bats. Sandoval can take Papi’s spot but their starters are laughable.
I have no idea why people think the Red Sox want Cespedes, and that was before you reminded me that he sucked in his first stint there.
The 2014 Red Sox was where we learned that Cespedes is not a good clubhouse guy and that many players up there hate him.
Name, everyone who leaves the Sox or the Mets is “a Bad Guy”…. Larry Luchino in Boston and The Mets Ownership make sure that every exit includes a boot in the ass.
Yeah…Ces is a Team Killer…bah!!!!
The issue with d’Arnaud is his batting stance. He’s got that extra “point the bat at the pitcher” habit that he won’t break. The Mets gave up on trying to get him to stop doing that because it was just one more thing that was slowing him down. If he would work this off-season on breaking that habit, then we might have a diamond in the rough. If he doesn’t, then my guess is that his star is going to continue fizzling.
As noted many times, the Mets did not have a catchers’ coach but rather an infielder that never caught teaching the catchers. That’s disgraceful, but it seems like the Mets are politics first and winning second. If they got a good catching coach, I think we’d see better results across the board.
Real nice article on TDA:
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2016/11/10/13356062/mets-travis-darnaud-catcher-2016-new-york