You would have made a fair amount of money if, when Bartolo Colon signed with the Mets prior to the 2014 season, you went out and made a wager that he would lead the team in innings pitched for the next three years. But that’s exactly what happened. With Colon moving on to greener pastures, the Mets need to figure out a way to replace his innings. But first, let’s take a look at the Mets’ starters the past three years and see if we can learn anything.
2014
| Name | W | L | ERA | GS | IP ▾ | H | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | WHIP | SO9 | SO/W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | 15 | 13 | 4.09 | 31 | 202.1 | 218 | 92 | 22 | 30 | 3 | 151 | 5 | 1.226 | 6.7 | 5.03 |
| Jon Niese | 9 | 11 | 3.40 | 30 | 187.2 | 193 | 71 | 17 | 45 | 0 | 138 | 7 | 1.268 | 6.6 | 3.07 |
| Zack Wheeler | 11 | 11 | 3.54 | 32 | 185.1 | 167 | 73 | 14 | 79 | 3 | 187 | 11 | 1.327 | 9.1 | 2.37 |
| Jacob deGrom | 9 | 6 | 2.69 | 22 | 140.1 | 117 | 42 | 7 | 43 | 2 | 144 | 1 | 1.140 | 9.2 | 3.35 |
| Dillon Gee | 7 | 8 | 4.00 | 22 | 137.1 | 128 | 61 | 18 | 43 | 0 | 94 | 5 | 1.245 | 6.2 | 2.19 |
| Daisuke Matsuzaka | 2 | 3 | 4.24 | 9 | 46.2 | 38 | 22 | 2 | 25 | 2 | 39 | 4 | 1.350 | 7.5 | 1.56 |
| Rafael Montero | 1 | 3 | 3.98 | 8 | 43.0 | 42 | 19 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 1.465 | 8.4 | 1.90 |
| Jenrry Mejia | 3 | 0 | 5.06 | 7 | 37.1 | 39 | 21 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 1.580 | 9.2 | 1.90 |
| Carlos Torres | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 5.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1.000 | 10.8 | 3.00 |
| Team Total | 57 | 55 | 3.66 | 162 | 985.0 | 945 | 401 | 93 | 308 | 10 | 837 | 35 | 1.272 | 7.6 | 2.72 |
2015
| Name | W | L | ERA | GS | IP ▾ | H | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | WHIP | SO9 | SO/W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | 14 | 13 | 4.20 | 31 | 192.2 | 216 | 90 | 25 | 24 | 5 | 133 | 4 | 1.246 | 6.2 | 5.54 |
| Jacob deGrom | 14 | 8 | 2.54 | 30 | 191.0 | 149 | 54 | 16 | 38 | 2 | 205 | 2 | 0.979 | 9.7 | 5.39 |
| Matt Harvey | 13 | 8 | 2.71 | 29 | 189.1 | 156 | 57 | 18 | 37 | 2 | 188 | 5 | 1.019 | 8.9 | 5.08 |
| Jon Niese | 9 | 10 | 4.16 | 29 | 173.0 | 186 | 80 | 20 | 54 | 2 | 112 | 9 | 1.387 | 5.8 | 2.07 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 9 | 7 | 3.24 | 24 | 150.0 | 126 | 54 | 19 | 31 | 2 | 166 | 3 | 1.047 | 10.0 | 5.35 |
| Dillon Gee | 0 | 3 | 5.92 | 7 | 38.0 | 52 | 25 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 1.632 | 5.9 | 2.50 |
| Steven Matz | 4 | 0 | 2.27 | 6 | 35.2 | 34 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 1.234 | 8.6 | 3.40 |
| Logan Verrett | 1 | 1 | 3.63 | 4 | 22.1 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 19 | 2 | 1.030 | 7.7 | 2.71 |
| Rafael Montero | 0 | 0 | 4.76 | 1 | 5.2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1.059 | 9.5 | 6.00 |
| Sean Gilmartin | 0 | 1 | 3.60 | 1 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.800 | 5.4 | 3.00 |
| Team Total | 64 | 51 | 3.44 | 162 | 1002.2 | 943 | 383 | 110 | 213 | 18 | 891 | 27 | 1.153 | 8.0 | 4.18 |
2016
| Name | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | WHIP | SO9 | SO/W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | 15 | 8 | 3.45 | 33 | 190.1 | 199 | 73 | 24 | 32 | 2 | 127 | 3 | 1.214 | 6.0 | 3.97 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 14 | 9 | 2.61 | 30 | 182.2 | 168 | 53 | 11 | 43 | 2 | 216 | 2 | 1.155 | 10.6 | 5.02 |
| Jacob deGrom | 7 | 8 | 3.04 | 24 | 148.0 | 142 | 50 | 15 | 36 | 0 | 143 | 3 | 1.203 | 8.7 | 3.97 |
| Steven Matz | 9 | 8 | 3.40 | 22 | 132.1 | 129 | 50 | 14 | 31 | 2 | 129 | 5 | 1.209 | 8.8 | 4.16 |
| Matt Harvey | 4 | 10 | 4.86 | 17 | 92.2 | 111 | 50 | 8 | 25 | 1 | 76 | 1 | 1.468 | 7.4 | 3.04 |
| Logan Verrett | 1 | 6 | 6.45 | 12 | 60.0 | 65 | 43 | 10 | 32 | 2 | 41 | 3 | 1.617 | 6.2 | 1.28 |
| Seth Lugo | 5 | 1 | 2.68 | 8 | 47.0 | 39 | 14 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 29 | 2 | 1.149 | 5.6 | 1.93 |
| Robert Gsellman | 3 | 2 | 2.63 | 7 | 41.0 | 40 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 1.268 | 8.8 | 3.33 |
| Gabriel Ynoa | 0 | 0 | 3.18 | 3 | 11.1 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1.500 | 8.7 | 3.67 |
| Rafael Montero | 0 | 1 | 7.36 | 3 | 11.0 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2.182 | 7.4 | 0.64 |
| Jon Niese | 0 | 1 | 12.60 | 2 | 5.0 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1.800 | 10.8 | 1.50 |
| Sean Gilmartin | 0 | 1 | 67.50 | 1 | 0.2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10.500 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Team Total | 58 | 55 | 3.61 | 162 | 922.0 | 926 | 370 | 96 | 250 | 16 | 827 | 19 | 1.275 | 8.1 | 3.31 |
The Mets have used 32 starters the past three years, a pretty typical amount these days. Five pitchers who started a game in 2014 also started a game in 2015. And nine guys who made a start in 2015 also made one last year. In 2015, three of the top five starters were repeats of the year before, while last year it was the same thing, with three repeaters from 2015. So, there’s been at least a little consistency among the top pitchers recently and there’s no reason not to expect that to continue in 2017.
However, you have to go back to Dwight Gooden from 1984-1986 to find a Mets pitcher who led the team in innings pitched three straight seasons. But Gooden amassed 744.2 IP those years, compared to 588.2 for Colon the past three campaigns. The idea of replacing Colon as the guy who led the team in innings pitched for three years is more daunting than the reality of it. Actually, it was more of a challenge to replace R.A. Dickey, who threw 616.2 IP his three years with the Mets, including 233.2 innings in his final year with the club.
The Mets hope that Syndergaard, deGrom, Matz and Harvey will come close to making up Colon’s innings all by themselves. That quartet had 547.2 IP among themselves in 2016. If everything breaks right, those four would be around 800 innings. Even if they only total 700, that’s 152.1 of Colon’s 190.1 innings. And that’s before factoring in whoever claims the team’s fifth starter’s job.
It would be great if Wheeler was healthy enough to claim the last spot in the rotation. But it seems optimistic to expect a guy who hasn’t pitched in two years to be able to take a regular return all season long. This time last year, the expectation was that Wheeler would be back the beginning of July. But setback after setback had him pitch just one minor league rehab start of one inning in 2016.
Updated news on his current health is hard to come by. That’s not unexpected in the offseason and really not any reason to worry. But, it’s not like there’s been reports he’s ready to go, either.
But even if Wheeler needs additional time, the Mets have a solid option in Gsellman, if they would just let him pitch. The M.O. of the Sandy Alderson Mets has been to bend over backwards not to let pitchers with fewer than 10 MLB starts open the season in the rotation. Matz did it last year but he also had three playoff starts under his belt. No one else in the Opening Day rotation has been that inexperienced.
There is one thing going for Gsellman, though. Out of sheer necessity, the Mets turned to him last season despite having only 48.2 innings of Triple-A experience. Here’s the innings logged at the top level of the minors was for other Mets starters:
Harvey – 110
deGrom – 114
Syndergaard – 162.2
Matz – 90.1
Wheeler – 101.2
Dillon Gee had 209.2 innings of experience in Triple-A but the Alderson Mets went out and signed two injury reclamation projects rather than give him a shot at the beginning of the 2011 season. Gee ended up getting a chance sooner rather than later because – surprise, surprise – an injury reclamation guy got hurt.
Gee ended up going 13-6 for the 2011 Mets. Will that experience encourage the Mets to allow Gsellman the chance to make the Opening Day roster in 2017, even with his lack of MLB starts? Before you answer, you also have to factor in the possibility of Wheeler being ready to contribute at some point should Gsellman fail to replicate his 2016 numbers. And even if Wheeler hits another bump there’s still Lugo and Ynoa around for depth, too.
Colon served the Mets well for three seasons. He will be missed but there’s enough internal talent that they shouldn’t go and look outside the system for his replacement. That would be a new way to handle things for the Alderson Mets. But perhaps with it being a guy that he and his staff brought into the system, Alderson will be give more rope to Gsellman than to other rookies who came up before him.
Actually i think this is the year that the Mets should go dumpster diving and look for guys who will take a minor league deal to fill out depth at the AAA level.
The Mets in the last 2 years have basically cycled thru everyone in the upper minors.
Logan Verrett got his shot last year and was horrible. Ynoa is basically Verrett a year removed and we shouldn’t wait to give him 10 starts to figure out that he’ll give us a 6+ ERA. Montero hasn’t found the strike zone in 2 years.
That’s 3/5th of the projected AAA rotation that is basically un-usable at the MLB level.
Lugo had bad peripherals and i suspect we’ll end up throwring him in the above category, but for now he gets the benefit of doubt and stays in the usable pile. GIlmartin has only made 2 “starts” as well and had an OK stat line at Vegas, so he’s usable (or rather unknown) Gsellman no question is usable.
That leaves 7-8 usable starters at the moment, which means they’ll need 2-3 more starters, who will probably only account for 10 starts, but why throw them away?
Some guys that might i might look at to stash at AAA are Alfredo Simon, Jerome Williams, Mat Latos
Dice-K!
I agree on taking a cheap flyer on a couple of formerly successful guys.
I would also say Gilmartin should repeat AAA oI order to find consistency. I still like him as a mid-rotation starter.
Name, totally agree. There are plenty of guys like this out there.
Some of the MILB Innings for the various starters may have been linked to managing service time.
I looked at the “3 year and up” innings counts for Gsellman and Syndergard, and they’re very similar. Noah: 118-133-179(includes 29 at Vegas)….. Gsellman: 116-133-160(includes 114 at Bingo and Vegas).
The “Other Guys”—Ynoa, Lugo, Verret, and especially Montero— I’m guessing that they will run into some 40 Man Roster Considerations as well as some baseline decisions on these arms. Montero is in a Rut, and I don’t know if it’s talent or Coachability—he does not have the talent to execute his present mix as an MLB Pitcher. He may need to hear different voices—a new organization. It would surprise me if he succeeded with the Mets—it would be less surprising if he rebuilt himself as a pitcher “elsewhere”.
Interesting comparison, Eraff.
Mets have been on record as preferring to keep their innings increase to around 30 or so. When they got Syndergaard, he had just gone from 59 IP in 2011 to 103.2 in 2012. So, they only bumped him to 117.2, which would have been almost exactly where he would have been if he had been on the 30-a-year-increase plan.
Maybe they did the same thing with Gsellman. Perhaps they didn’t have huge hopes for him but after he had a strong 2013, they reeled in his innings the following season.
We should probably watch Andrew Church this year. He went from 44.2 IP in 2015 to 95.2 IP last year.
I comped them because they were the two “High School Guys”. Syndy made it about half or year or so younger than Gsellman. Noah also did a pretty big bump in his debut MLB Season–almost 50 innings to the 179….and they managed him this year to 183.