That magical time of year is around again. Retail stores are filling our ears with holiday music, we’re ordering relatives chachkies on Amazon.com and we are all wondering what Sandy Alderson has up his sleeves. To keep your mind off the tenuous future of Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson and the Met bullpen we at Mets360 are proud to present the Top 50 Met Prospects of 2016.
#50 Dash Winningham, 1B: Ranked 23rd in the 2016 Top 50 Prospect Rankings, Winningham’s stock took a nosedive during the season. Unfortunately, his power didn’t play in the pitching friendly confines of the South Atlantic League and his batting average took a nosedive. It’s unlikely that Winningham shows up on the 2018 list unless he has a major renaissance with Port St. Lucie and looks to be an impact bat. (ETA: 2020 Ceiling: Pinch Hitter)
#49 Kevin Taylor, 2B/3B/OF: How does a player from the independant league show up on a Top Prospect list? Not easily. Taylor surprised many with his ability to play multiple positions if not his ability to hit. He was old for Port St. Lucie but not as old as one might guess with a journeyman. Entering 2017 at the age of 25, he’ll be about a year older than the average player in AA but, based upon his results in 2016 one might suggest a future on an MLB club as a bench player is in his future. (ETA: 2018 Ceiling: Utility Guy)
#48 Ricky Knapp, SP/RP: If we acknowledge that Las Vegas is ill-suited towards all control pitchers succeeding, we can forgive Knapp’s poor trio of starts in the desert. We should focus more on his very successful six starts in AA. In the 40.1 innings Knapp pitched at the AA level in 2016 he put together numbers equivalent with what one would look for in a #2/#3 pitcher. His K/9 and WHIP were both positive signs even if his stuff remains pedestrian. It is possible to see Knapp proceed to the majors in the way that Dillon Gee once did. Do not expect good numbers from Knapp in Vegas. (ETA: 2017 Ceiling: Spot Starter/Inning Eater)
#47 Craig Missigman, RP: There are a number of relief pitchers on the list of Top Prospects for 2017. Missigman isn’t likely to become a closer of the future or a Top Prospect but his pathway to the majors remains projectable and as the #47 prospect for a team, that isn’t anything to turn your nose up at. Missigman will be serving as the setup man to Alex Palsha and appears to be on pace to compete for a bullpen spot as early as 2019. (ETA: 2019 Ceiling: Middle Reliever)
#46 Chase Ingram, SP: Towards the beginning of 2016 it appeared that Ingram would be destined to rank much higher on the Mets prospect list. Through his first four starts he has an ERA below 3.00, a solid whip and a K/9 of 11.5. May, June and July would prove far less friendly to Ingram, who struggled with both walks and strikeouts in concerning ways. His final five games in August give us some reason to hope, as he bounced back with an improved K/9. Ultimately the likelihood that Ingram becomes a “Top Prospect” isn’t too great. The SAL remains a pitcher friendly park so that even pitchers who excel there aren’t guaranteed success higher up. (ETA: 2019 Ceiling: 5th Starter)
At 46-50, the most likely ETA for these guys is never.
But hey, teams like Binghamton and PSL are hungry for championships too.
Ricky Knapp seems likely to see some MLB time at the very least.
“Ceiling: Pinch Hitter.”
Ouch!
He’s not defensively versatile to be much of a bench player and his offensive skills aren’t overpowering enough to be a DH/1B. That means his best use will be as a power bat off the bench.
I believe in the entertainment business they refer to this as the sloooooooow buildup.
It’s a rare team that has 50 guys in their system that will one day play in the majors. I’ve done only minimal research on this but I would be surprised if in Mets’ history it happened five times.
Therefore it’s easy to be the guy who just dismisses this out of hand.
Last year we plugged three guys who probably no one who reads this site had ever heard of before. Then in 2016 Jake Simon struck guys out but allowed too many baserunners. Jimmy Duff continued to do well at Lo-A but got beat up at Hi-A. But P.J. Conlon had one of the best years of anybody in the system.
A top 10 list misses Conlon completely. But because we looked at 50 guys, Conlon was on our radar all year long. On a site that declares it’s about the Past Present Future – it seems we would be derelict if we ignored people until they had the top 10 sheen.
Projecting guys who are three or four or five levels away from the majors is impossible. Hopefully when you expand it to 50, you catch more of the guys who will make headlines the following season.
A lot of people don’t care and that’s fine. We’re not demanding or even asking anyone to care. We just ask that you don’t dismiss those of us who do care.
And if you’re open to the possibility of caring, here’s some guys to keep tabs on in 2017.
But there’s only 4 full minor league clubs and 1 main short season league. That’s 125 players. Then you have to take away ~15 players from Vegas who have had enough mlb time that they aren’t even rookies and can’t qualify as a prospect and you can probably easily write off 10 more like that in the other levels, so you’ve got only about 100 players to choose from to begin with.
If you’re ranking from 50, you’re basically looking at half the eligible population.
While you’re not counting three short-season teams, these lists are. And there’s also consideration given to guys who are in the system and who haven’t played yet.
Who actually sees and scouts these guys?— who wrote the reviews? Dash Winningham is a Just Turned 21 year old, drafted from HS in the 8th round—24 homers in 2 seasons…
…I guess I just respect and honor guys who want to be players more than to just dismiss them as “MLB Pinch Hitter” for their Top Level….most especially because this is posted as a First Person Review—- I like Dave’s Articles, but this is just dismissively Glib. Have you seen Hundereds of players—have you seen Dash 10 times. Do you have any idea what he’s working on?
It also makes me question whether there is an appreciation of “A Major League Ballplayer”…. I’ll leave it at That…and I’ll add one more Thing….
..Marco Scutaro!!!!! I’m rooting for guys with a dream!!!…and you’d better put in the work and earn the right to judge before you toss shade on that.
Some great philosophical insight here.
MLB Pinch Hitter is hardly a dismissal of talent. I can think of a number of players who have made their mark as a pinch hitter on NL teams. Winningham simply doesn’t hit enough to really project as either a starting DH or 1B and you don’t typically carry a backup corner infielder who can’t also play a second position.
My tone in most of my writing is pretty glib and I never want to come off as dismissive. Should Dash produce in 2017 he’ll rocket up the rankings in next year’s Top 50 and his ceiling could also improve.
Can someone explain the Eaton Trade to Me????
What side don’t you understand?
Either Eaton is way better than I thought, or Guolitto is less than advertised
The past 3 years, Eaton has 12.8 fWAR. Compare that to Dexter Fowler, who has 9.5 fWAR in the same span. Fowler’s going to get a Granderson-like contract while Eaton is under team control for 5 years at $38.4 million. And he’s over 2.5 years younger than Fowler, too.
Turner, Eaton, Murphy, Harper, Rendon, Werth — that’s a pretty nice top six of the order.
It’s very easy to see why the Nationals did it. I still like Chicago’s side, better. I’ve always liked Giolito (wanted the Mets to draft him but they passed to take Cecchini) and he pitched in the majors last year at 21. Lopez pitched in the majors at 22. I’m not going to hold it against them that they didn’t dominate. They both did well at Triple-A. And the White Sox get a first-round pick in Dane Dunning, too.
The White Sox have done a great job of getting value for their guys. Be interesting to see if they can continue to add by selling Frazier and/or Quintana.
While I like Chicago’s side better, I’d classify this as win-win.
Yeah, I think this is right, similar to my thoughts below (but posted beforehand). I think the key to Eaton, as I wrote, will be his ability to stick in CF. as a corner, he’s just not as valuable.
Good player, great contract.
The Mets lineup could really use this type of complementary piece at the top of the lineup. By not focusing strictly on power, the Nationals picked up an athletic player who scores runs. Now there’s an old-fashioned stat that’s undervalued in today’s game: Runs Scored.
I wonder if Eaton is like Cespedes, a player who’s so much better in a corner than in CF that it overwhelms the “normal” defensive rankings. I know if I was the Nats, I’d play Harper in CF and Eaton in RF.
Eaton has a wildly team friendly contract, and Rizzo mentioned that, which is odd for a team that can warm the concourse’s of Nats Park with trash can fires of hundred dollar bills. But the haul for a solid player like that seems too much to me. If Robertson was also in the deal I would feel better, but I think this is a win for White Sox. Giolito was the star of a trade for Sale, and Eaton is nowhere near that level. Hahn has done an excellent job this year. Eaton’s value increased as a corner outfielder, so it is a bit odd he will be in center, which devalues his contribution. I cant help but wonder with the Nats clearly disinterested in the 10/400 of Harper if this is a move to put a very very good play in RF and start looking into shopping Harper around. I’d guess his trade value would be pretty good.
I saw a stat on Bryce Harper, after May 1, where he hit something like .230/.365/.385 for the rest of the season.
Those are not exact numbers, but it was definitely below .780 OPS.
Plus there were a lot of “What’s wrong with Bryce Harper?” articles. So, yeah, a 10/$400 sounds a little premature.
If I controlled Harper, I’d let him play out another season and then see what’s what. It’s hard to tell from here. I wonder how beloved he is by the fans, in the clubhouse, and within the organization as a whole. I wonder if Paplebon is the only guy who wanted to choke him. When the numbers reach $400 million, you better check off a lot of boxes.
I don’t recall where but I read somewhere this offseason that the Nats were not as flush with cash as some have speculated. Maybe that was a smokescreen to hide them from criticism for not shopping in the elite closer market.
I think the Nats would have been better served addressing the pen rather than the offense. But 8-6 wins count, too.
I like Eaton a lot if he can play CF. And his contract is great, team-controlled for five years. Gets on base, speedy, athletic. To me, so much hinges on his ability to play an acceptable CF, and I don’t know that answer personally. I’m betting better than Granderson, right?
Giolito is funny. I was not overly impressed by him against Mets, but those were early starts in his MLB career. He might turn out to be great.
Seems like that Nats gave up an awful lot for a “good/very good” player. They had the best look at Giolito, maybe they didn’t like something.
Short-term, the Nats got better for 2017. Eaton is a good ballplayer. But the White Sox have to be happy with this haul.
My two cents.
Matt Cerrone wrote about the White Sox being in a sell mode and suggested a trade, which seems far-fetched.
He suggested:
Jose Abreu + David Robertson for Lucas Duda + Jay Bruce
Even if you add Dominic Smith to the Met side of this equation it seems mighty light.
I do wonder if the Mets would consider offering the other pieces to make Abreu and Robertson a reality.
I’m a little frustrated by SA’s remarks yesterday, essentially saying he’s handcuffed for the moment until he sheds payroll.
He also talked about the lopsidedness of the outfield, how it was difficult, as presently constructed, to give out playing time.
Yet this is the situation he created as GM when he traded for Bruce in the first place, giving up Herrera and Wotel. It’s also the situation he perpetuated when he picked up the option.
I understand that he feels he’ll get back more than nothing from Bruce, and I can see the cold logic of “patience.” But at the same time, I don’t think payroll should be an issue at this point — does SA really believe the Mets could get stuck w/ Bruce’s $13 million? — and it appears like shedding Bruce has become a primary focus, distraction. If an acceptable trade is going to take time, okay, fine. But it shouldn’t prevent other moves from happening.
The Bruce infatuation never made a lot of sense. This is the guy SA wanted before Cespedes back in 2015. It still feels like we’re paying for that trade. A lot of wheel-spinning and wasted opportunities revolving around one slow power bat who can’t run, can’t get on base, can’t field, can’t hail a cab. Sigh. Sorry, I’m whining.
NL East Division Champs or bust.
When relievers are getting four and five-year deals, I’m not going to fault Sandy for waiting.
Having said that, I wonder if Jeff Locke would have been worth a two-year deal. He would have given them a lefty for the pen and the ability to be a swing guy, too. He signed in Miami for a little over $3 million. I wonder if 2/$5 would have gotten it done?
SA has earned the patience, I know. And this is how he operates. The winter meetings are merely preamble.
I’m just venting stupidly about Bruce, because I hate his dumb face.
Eaton is a .760-790 OPS guy, and that’s a really nice CF’er. It’s not hard to get under My Radar, but I’m still thinking of him as a “Heavier Chris Coughlin”.
I don’t see him as a guy who Tilts the Field, although he’s a nice fit and solves problems for just about any team. If you’re sacrificing tremendous talent with the logic that you’re leveraging for win now, the fact that he plays for 7 million rather than 15 shouldn’t be such a large attraction.