As we sit near the fireplace with a cup of warm cocoa on a cold day as we approach the holiday season, it is easy to get lulled into the comfort of home. Dreaming about what shiny newly wrapped gift we may find under the tree, one ponders about the new year. Then one steps outside into the cold frigid harsh winter weather, quickly awakening from the sting of the wind and wet snow. One quickly snaps out of the holiday glow.
Please, someone, anyone, find Sandy Alderson and take him for a walk outside, before he is lulled into trading Brandon Nimmo or Gavin Cecchini for a late inning reliever. Alderson the fisherman has a problem. He is fishing with a large piece of bait named Jay Bruce and the fish are not biting. Bruce has a strong resurgence last year until he was traded to the Mets, where he fell off of the proverbial cliff, where he hit .219 for the rest of the year.
The New York Post confirmed Monday from an industry source that the Mets have an interest in Orioles All-Star reliever Brad Brach. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported, “not only do the Orioles want Granderson in the deal (the Mets would rather trade Bruce), but they also want the Mets to provide relief on the $15 million the veteran outfielder is owed for next season.”
The Blue Jays have also been interested in Bruce for some time now, but the Jays aren’t biting the hook.
According to industry sources, the Mets are exploring acquiring a reliever via free agency, trade of Bruce or Curtis Granderson or “second tier Prospects” such as Nimmo or Cecchini. The problem that the Mets have is that everyone knows that they want to trade Bruce. Even if the Mets did not sign Yoenis Cespedes, maybe rather than exercising his $13 million option, maybe they should have just him loose.
Alderson is in a poker game, where all of the other players know exactly what his cards are. He is not holding a pair of aces, but a nine of spades.
No matter what the Mets do now, Granderson, Bruce, Neil Walker and Lucas Duda will probably all be gone after the 2017 season. With the departures, the Mets will need to fill the voids with top prospects such as Amed Rosario and Dominic Smith, but they will need to have additional options such as Nimmo and Cecchini as well.
There are plenty of free agent relief pitchers who could fill the late inning relief role such as Brad Ziegler and even the Mets own Jerry Blevins. The Mets are reluctant to offer a multi-year contract for a reliever and they don’t want to pay any of Bruce’s salary in a trade, then Alderson, please take a walk outside in the cold and wake up and don’t trade good prospects for a reliever. The market is what it is for Bruce. He is worth what someone will pay for him. Dump him and his salary for a low level prospect and move on. The $13 million that the Mets save in trading Bruce can be reinvested in signing a good free agent relief pitcher.
You are conflating all “good” prospects with “top” prospects, so it’s a little hard to get what you are saying here.
Is Cecchini untradeable? Or just not for a late-inning reliever?
Which reliever?
And if so, why?
Just as you jumped the gun and criticized Alderson for sitting on his hands before the Cespedes signing — after badly misreading the Mets and the market — you are again leaping to criticize before the facts are known.
Sorry, I don’t mean to always disagree with you. But sometimes these things happen.
One complicating issue comes down to money, and we’ve seen this pattern for many many years. If the Mets trade Bruce alone, they will get, say, “B” in return. If they trade Bruce plus, say, $4 million, they will get “A” & “B” in return. If they trade Bruce & a prospect they will get “C” in return, and so on. A lot of unknown variables.
For example, as I recall, the Mets once had a fleeting opportunity to get a young prospect from the Marlins, Adrian Gonzales, for Armando Benitez plus cash, but they refused to kick in the cash. It was their expressed wish to keep the money. So they moved on to a lesser deal.
If the Mets need to sweeten a Bruce deal in order to get back something truly valuable in return, it’s a conversation worth exploring. I would not instantly hang up the phone is someone mention the word Cecchini.
I’m going to trust that SA is doing his job right now, staying nimble and open-minded, considering the varied options.
It’s boring to say, but let’s see what actually happens.
I still believe that Jay Bruce would be an asset to many teams, and that his $13 million salary is in line for a guy coming off a 33 HR, 99 RBI season, who has 4 times hit more than 30 HRs. The problem for the acquiring team is he’s only controllable for one season. I still believe he has value in a slow-developing marketplace. I’m hopeful in a positive resolution, not seeking merely a pure salary dump.
I agree Jimmy P, Alderson will read the market and make an “above salary dump” trade of Jay Bruce (or Curtis Granderson). Alderson’s target is to get a relief pitcher that is better than Robles that can pitch before Reed and Familia.
I also think Alderson should make an exception to his rule and offer Blevins a multi year contract. Blevins has pitched well in NY and knows the pressure. Of 105 NL relief pitchers that pitched at least 30 innings in 2016, Blevins put up these numbers with his rank in parenthesis:
FIP 3.05 (22), K/9 11.14 (14), WHIP 1.21 (40), HR/9 0.86 (54)
If a deal can be enhanced by trading “top prospects” Cecchini or Nimmo then he should do so. Alderson has been doing a good job and does not deserve the criticism.
We’re all anxious to see what happens this week, but I’d rather see Alderson wait it out then dump Bruce for a low level prospect. When the musical chairs game winds down there may be a more obvious trade partner. A lot of teams could use a power bat. Most can’t afford Encarnacion or Trumbo, don’t want to forfeit a pick for the older Bautista, and don’t want to surrender the haul needed to net McCutcheon, Dozier, or any of the bats from Detroit. At the winter meetings GMs will come to this conclusion and see another option – a 30 homer guy with one reasonable year on his deal. Alderson the fisherman will wait patiently until the right fish bites. Maybe we get a good reliever or a good prospect. Whatever the return, I just hope it helps balance out the loss of Dilson Herrera to right the wrong that was this initial trade.
Agreed. The Herrera trade for Bruce’s empty bat was ludicrous. Throwing Wotell in, a kid who can strike out 10 per 9, was the frosting on shitecake.
That trade stank of Jeff Wilpon’s genius.
Thats exactly correct JP. In fact the only real MLB-wide top prospect in the organization is Rosario. I’d have no trouble trading any prospect if the end product takes you to a serious chance to win a championship. Look at the Nationals this very moment. They are not excited giving up 2 top prospects, and then some, to get Sale, but by the end of the day I pretty much expect that to occur. The notion of somehow protecting Brandon Nimmo or Gavin Cecchini for the future is pure folly. I’d pack Rosario and Smith’s bags and drive them to the airport for 3 years of Chris Sale. And Im a *huge* fan of Rosario.
The main point is that rather than trading Nimmo or Cecchini for a reliever, it would be preferable to sign a free agent for the pen. I too would give up Rosario and Smith for a top player like Sale. But Id rather not give up a good prospect for Brad Brach.
Looks like Rosario and Smith are safe….Sale to the Red Sox.
Operating under the “Prospects are Cool, Parades are Cooler”. Big steal for Boston. Thank the Baseball Gods Sale is not in a Curly W uniform
So Boston inks Moncada to $31.5 million signing bonus, he gets ranked #1 prospect in baseball, then flips him to White Sox — along w/ a prospect who has hit 105 on the gun, for Chris Sale.
Money well spent.
Sale was in the same draft as Harvey, I believe, two interesting careers to compare and contrast. Sale was fast-tracked and stayed healthy and got a big return.
Wow. The white Sox got robbed blind by the red sox.
possibly, but like the old addage goes, we can finish last with him or without him. The WS are in a funk, and need to break up the band.
TC live on the radio now:
– TdA is certainly #1 at catcher. “Were not giving up on him”
– Robles poss for 8th inning
– Bruce way better than people think
– DWright is a superstar. Hes playing 3B. until he cant. Poss 1B down the road
“- Bruce way better than people think”
Well, what else is he going to say?
Any team giving Bruce a regular job cannot be serious about contending. Bruce’s empty power, made useless by every other facet of his game, is the perfect “look busy” move for bottom-tier GMs on bad teams. “Ooh, home runs!”
At the time of the trade he led the NL in RBI. Not sure that adds up to empty.
Yoan Moncada is a Top 10 MLB prospect (MLB Pipeline has him #1 overall) and Kopech hits triple digits and MLB Pipeline has ranked 67th. Plus they got two other guys. I believe they got a good return for him.
I guess it’s just me.
With Rich Hill getting 3/48, I would have thought 3 years of Sale would have commanded at least 2 blue chippers plus more and I don’t see Kopech as anything close to a blue chip.
Or maybe it’s because i don’t see Moncada as a superstar
Someone on MLB Tonight also said they expected at least one MLB ready player. The ChiSox were holding out for Trea Turner, and I can’t blame them, but glad Sale is in the other eastern division.
Well, at best that’s myopic.
The White Sox were 6 games under .500 and they just traded their best player. There are probably other trades to come. Why on earth would they focus on getting MLB-ready players when they are clearly in a rebuilding phase? You get the best players you possibly can, regardless of where they are in the development cycle.
I think this is the rare phenomenon known as a fair trade.
Can you assume that this delivers a parade to Boston? Does your analysis change if the Red Sox don’t win the World Series in the next three years? Would you rather have Rusty Staub from 72-75 or Ken Singleton from 72 to 84 and two other guys who played 10+ years in the majors?
There is no way to assume this brings a flag, but it does say we are for sure playing to get one. Prospects cant ever take you to big league championships. Guys like Sale, and Ces, do. Sale is the best left handed pitcher in baseball. Pitchers are critical in the game. This is a fabulous move for a team like the Red Sox.
I cant see hoarding prospects for some long term dream of a win, when you can get a guy like Sale, and 3 years of control. We traded Fulmer for Ces, and I havent heard a single boo-hoo from anyone about it. I mean we could use Fulmer big time given the woes of our SP staff. It was a fabulous trade, just like the Sale trade, and this cost a lot less for the Red Sox.
I don’t fault the Red Sox for this deal, especially if they don’t believe Porcello is among the game’s elite. But I think they gave up a whole lot to get him.
Just saw this tweet from Buster Olney:
One evaluator on the group of prospects the White Sox got from Boston: “No way anyone else was close to that offer.”
It stings a little, because this was my original timetable for trading a healthy Matt Harvey.
In a year from now, if all goes well, I think Sandy can make a similar trade.
No one has any idea how 2017 is going to turn out with the Mets’ injured pitchers. But what’s a reasonable scenario where Harvey comes back healthy and the Mets trade him for a bunch of prospects? I’m not saying that scenario doesn’t exist – I’m just wondering what it is.
Let’s say Noah stays healthy and JDG and Harvey come back close to what they were in 2015. Is that enough? I’d say you’d need at least one more positive thing — Matz staying healthy or Wheeler making it back or Gsellman taking a leap forward.
Its probably more than that even too. We have all the issues around other health matters as well. Will we be in win immediately? Minor rebuild? Next year?
I hear ya JP. After Harvey’s magical entry into the Show, I wondered about moving him and _____ for Arenado and Lemahieu.
I hope Harvey has a great year and the Mets offer him a fair extension. If he rejects it then they should trade him next winter. I am with you JP.
Chris – I agree with you except on the point that Sale is the best left-handed pitcher in baseball. Kershaw, Bumgarner, Price, Lester, Hamels….At best, I rank him 4th.
Thanks for catching that Matt. Kershaw is the best pitcher, period, and Sale is the best lefty below that.
Boo-hoo?
How about not loading the dice?
The trade is already a bad one for the Mets. Fulmer was more valuable last year than Cespedes, and is incredibly cheap to boot. Cespedes just came off a 3 win season where he was hurt a lot and is now a year older.
The good news is there is upside, but given the cost this could easily go down as a very poor trade for the Mets.
Im curious, do you remember we went to the WS because of Cespedes. The Mets winning record with him playing versus not playing is night and day. Great move then, and great move now.
Blair’s point was that nothing was guaranteed, and I e always said that. However, the Mets are fortunate to make it all the way as Cespedes got hot.
In four years, the White Sox may have four all-stars from the Sale trade but we mist love be in the moment. The problem with Bruce was a recent history of annual struggles and his defense was eroding. It was a crappy trade the day it happened. But, it’s done.
Blair,
Down the road you might be correct, but Fulmer would not have gotten us to the post-season in 2015. He would have been nice to have for 2016 with so many pitching injuries, but the anemic offense without Ces might have doomed the team.
Let’s wait a while before condemning this deal.
What does $31 million get you in today’s baseball?
Two years of Curtis Granderson. A little less than two years of Neil Walker.
Two years of Rich Hill.
Less than two years of David Wright (or up 63 games).
A little over one year of Yoenis Cespedes.
Soon, less than a single season of Bryce Harper.
What price do you put on the #1 prospect in baseball, age 21? Where you control his salary for the next five-seven years?
It’s an interesting question (to me, at least). Consider, also, the value of having a player who can then become the key piece in a trade for the baseball LHP in baseball, age 28.
The Red Sox, again, did very well in signing the star Cuban. They rolled the dice and came up big, at a relatively low cost. I wish the Mets didn’t sit out every one of these opportunities.
Except they didn’t pay 31 m, but 63 mil
for a billion dollar team that means exactly zero. Apparently the chance to win a championship means that much.
Plus banned from signing any decent international free agent for over 300k (aka anyone decent) for 2 years
Such is the fever to win a WS
So that gives them the right to be stupid?
That’s like the excuse of a teenager who does drugs because “everyone else is doing it”
its not drugs, its baseball. Stupid to you is clearly smart to others, and they have the $ and the team.
Id do the same thing.
Just because you have the ability to do something doesn’t mean it’s smart.
Anyways, i was commenting on your “do whatever to win attitude” justification. The same reasoning players were using when taking PEDs.
False. A team only has 1 purpose (outside making $): to win championships. What the Red Sox did was place themselves in a great position to reach that goal using all the avenues teams use to win. Ill take the Mets 2 WS rings over all the Braves NL East division champs.
I have no idea where you are going. I say something and then you bring up a totally unrelated topic.
I started off this by merely pointing out the total cost of Moncada, including penalties, was 63 mil, not 31 mil (plus international signing restrictions).
The Red Sox rolled the dice , but not at a “relatively low cost” as claimed.
Prospects are like backup QBs. Everyone falls in love with them but half of them don’t turn out to be what we hoped. Pitching prospects especially are a crapshoot with all the injuries. And for all the hype about Giolito I was not impressed with what I saw of him. He looks like he belongs on a big league mound the way Robert Gsellman does. But he didn’t wow me with electric stuff the way Strasburg, Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, et al did in their debuts.
The $31.5 was the signing bonus, whereas the overall contract was for $63. Given the trade, I’m not so sure — couldn’t find verification — that the Sox have already paid out the full $63 million.
But again, given the economics of today’s baseball, I’m not sure that spending that money to gain Chris Sale at a very reasonable contract for 3 years is that outlandish. They will love him Boston and I think his presence lifts that team to another level.
There was a dark period for Bill James when his writing got really nasty and unbearably arrogant. He became, for me, unreadable. This is toward the end of the Abstracts, before he got hired by the Red Sox. He basically called people stupid far too often. For a period at least, the bitterness and condescension overwhelmed the value of his observations. Oh nameless one, you are right there, without anything close to the credibility of James. I often think you must be very young, is that the problem? Anyone who disagrees with your brilliance is stupid?
There’s something awfully funny about this.
Any fan or GM can look at Jay Bruce’s WAR and notice right away that Bruce has been without value to a major league team since 2013, which was the last time he was significantly above replacement level, or 0.0 wins.
Is Sandy Alderson hoping some other major league GM will be hypnotized by Bruce’s 33 home runs into believing it’s 1995, when it was far less clear that Bruce’s power was simply swallowed by his many weaknesses: defense, baserunning, GIDPs, and so on?
It’s 2016. Now we know. Why did Alderson pick up Bruce’s 13m option, given Bruce has no value to a ML team and that every other GM in baseball will glance at fWar or bWar or whatever his club’s version of WAR is, and know, too, that Bruce has no value?
Why does anyone think Alderson can get anything for Bruce in trade? How is that possible? It’s like believing in magic beans.
We live in a culture now where it’s mostly about how well you did yesterday. But yes Bruce was terrible in 14 and 15, but had a more successful 2016.
I would agree that he’s overrated, but there are tons of idiot GMs out there, and with similar but much older guys like Beltran and Holliday getting 13+ mil, he is not without trade value
Good post. What little value Bruce *might* have shows up only if he can DH, but trading for a declining DH with no upside? Ugh.
You’re right, though. I shouldn’t assume as many as 25 GMs subscribe to even slightly advanced statistics.
Blair – I agree. I think DHing hides Bruce’s defensive shortcomings. 30+ HRs for a $13MM DH is something a GM might trade for.
So what is going on at the winter meetings? Three major contenders, the Cubs, Nats and Red Sox are adding additional key pieces to theri teams for the 2017 run. During the first three days, what have the Mets done? What are the rumors? So far it looks pretty silent. You snooze, you lose. I hope Sandy proves me wrong tomorrow and makes some good moves.
I was just looking at the 2006 roster. Reyes and Wright at the top of their game plus Delgado in his prime. Now we have Reyes and Wright ten years later.
The Mets are looking to trade a player (Bruce) who nobody wants who earns $ 13 mil. The Giants signed Melancon, The Cubs traded for Davis and Chapman and Jansen are next.
For being in NY, what are the Mets really doing to build a championship team? Seems like a lot of us have come to accept the mediocrity of their moves. We knew that Harvey would be a stud, but we got lucky with Syndergaard, deGrom and Matz. If the Mets didnt have these pitchers, they would be looking at 65 wins.
Mike W – the Mets made the playoffs despite a barage of injuries and off years. The year before we made the playoffs despite having no offense for half the year. We have a terrific rotation, a solid lineup and bench and just need a few secondary pieces to form a nice bullpen. With a healthy and complete rotation, this could be a 95 win team. We don’t have an unlimited payroll. If we can unload Bruce’s salary for a prospect or two and resign Blevins and Salas or reasonable facsimiles we’ll be ready to go to battle in 2017.
I understand. It is just tough to watch them sit idly by while the strong get stronger. Now the truth comes out about cutting payroll. So if they wanted to really cut payroll, they shouldn’t have executed the option on Bruce or offered Walker a qualifying offer. That saves 30 mil.
I like your thinking Matt. At this point, I’d rather Blevins and Salas back and get prospects for Bruce, rather than using talent to get relievers they aren’t any better than the two we had, and not get a kid for the system to replace Herrera/Wotell. What a stupid trade. Bruce is the poster boy for why sabermetricians pay no mind to RBIs.
Gus – Sabermetricians are also why Hason Hayward is the most overpaid player this side of Bobby Bonilla.