The idea of the Mets trading for an upper shelf center fielder is one that refuses to die. Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports that the Mets and Pirates discussed Andrew McCutchen in a minor way and that rumor took off again. Then today on MetsBlog there’s talk of a three-way deal where the Mets land Charlie Blackmon.
In both of these discussions the Mets are giving up Steven Matz and other talent. Matz has had pretty good results when healthy but he’s missed considerable time the past two seasons, in addition to time missed in the beginning of his minor league career. You have to give something to get something but how do you feel about trading a guy going into his age 26 season who’s 13-8 with a 3.16 ERA in the majors?
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I realize that an upgrade in CF could be huge for the team.
I just don’t want to trade a top-shelf pitcher for an OF.
And especially because I think Lagares has not gotten enough of a chance offensively. He’s had some clutch hits and, at times, has looked like he could be very good—even against righties.
That’s why the Mets offered him a contract. They must think so, too.
You can’t have enough pitching, and with Lagares, Nimmo, and even Reyes there’s no need to “fix” CF at the expense of a top-shelf starter.
And I remember all the geniuses who wanted to trade Syndergaard before he even had a chance. What do they say now?
That.
How many innings do we get from Matz? Is it going to be closer to 125 than 175?
Matz is our lefty. Why would we trade him? It just creates another problem, right?
This team has exposure to Pitching Needs and Infield depth/quality…I have a mindset that “David Wright does not exist”, and that tells me I’m gonna need an infielder and some more pitching.
Keep the powder dry for those moves.
It’s best to just ignore any trade proposal with more than two teams. They fall through nearly all the time in real life, and never happen when blogs are speculating about them.
Actually, any trade first suggested by a blog is never going to happen.
We suggested Niese for Bastardo. I think it happened…
Matz has a lot of upside, McCutcheon is on the downside.
Blackmon came into 2016 a career .653 OPS guy away from Coors.
I don’t believe his 2016 numbers. He’s not even a starting outfielder in my book, let alone someone i would give up anything for.
Oh yea. Tulo has worked out great for the Jays, hasn’t he?
Wow. You are out there with that impression.
Oh yea. Don’t forget Cuddyer either.
Don’t drink the Coors-aid. Blackmon is not the real deal.
The Rockies have produced a paltry amount of hitters who have had post Rockies success.
Holliday has been the best by far. Fowler and Seth Smith. That’s pretty much it over the last 10 years
Matz has plenty of upside..a young LP who could someday be a strong #2 starter…why would I trade him for a one year cf rental whose on the wrong side of a career..
I believe the Mets should get McCutchen, but they should use extra pieces. What did the Nats really give up for a younger player on the upswing? They gave up a prospect that people felt was overrated, and two good pitchers but not projected top starters. Now, what about McCutchen that has been trending down? If Gsellman, Cecchini, and a prospect from the Jays or Orioles doesn’t do it, then screw them. If the Jays or Orioles are out, then give them an A Ball pitcher like Oswalt and throw in Tebow.
If the Mets wanted to upgrade at CF this off season they should have signed Fowler and “salary dumped” Granderson and Bruce. They could have signed Desmond instead. They could have signed Jay to platoon with Lagares. If they wanted to upgrade CF they would have done it and at a lot less cost than Matz (or Conforto). Sure Blackman and McCutchen would be nice to have but not at that price.
Outside of Syndergaard, every pitcher is wildly undervalued due to injury, surgery. Now is not the time.
The guys who are overvalued, I think, are Gsellman and Lugo.
My strong preference is to sell high, not low.
I’m not against trading Matz and filling in with a, say, Capuono-Raquel arm, but I’d trade him when he was at the top of the market. He is brittle; I’m not confident he’s a durable asset.
Answer: I’d wait, unless.
Can Lagares learn how to lay down bunt this off-season?
He may be able to use his speed to increase his on base percentage.
Cespedes and Duda want to lead the league in rbis in 2017
I would not trade Matz. Even if they didn’t sign Cespedes, they should have not extended Bruce’s option. They could have solved the problem without a trade by signing Fowler. Cutch is not the answer. (Remember George Foster). Blackmon is not the answer either. Bottom line is they need a CF and I don’t ny buy the bull of not making any moves until they cut payroll. So in reality, trade Bruce for a crate of oranges and be done with it. I have written about this before, Malkex Smith of the Braves. Young and a speed demon on the bases. They need to make a move to even have a chance against the Nats and even if they won the division over the Nats, they still have to get past the Cubs and to do that, they need to make strategic good moves and invest the money in winning.
Mike, why would the Braves give up Smith? And, what would you offer the Braves?
Also, 30 HR hitters don’t grow on trees. Do you think Trumbo is better than Bruce. I don’t. Trumbo was last in fielding and hit 47 HR in a bandbox. I think Bruce should have similar value. Bruce was on a similar pace and is merely below average in RF but still has a good arm.
Mallex Smith? Sounds good. He could be the missing piece, the one that puts us over the top and he’s cheap and he’s under control for 6 years. Think Gselman could get it done?
Yes because they already have a young CF in Inciarte.
Whatever would make you think that Mallex Smith is the missing piece?!?
The guy had an 83 OPS+, an 84 wRC+ and a .300 wOBA — that’s Juan Lagares without the defense. I mean really, if absolutely everything breaks right for him, what is he? Do you think he can be as good as Odubel Herrera?
His Triple-A numbers weren’t as good as Chirstian Bethancourt’s and we know that guy can’t hit. They weren’t as good as Joey Terdoslavich’s, either. Maybe he was rushed. But if that’s the case and he still needs to be in Triple-A, then how can he be the missing piece for the 2017 Mets?
A missing piece, not the missing piece. You could do the same analysis for Rick Porcello before he won the Cy. You could have done the same analysis for Bob Ojeda before the Mets traded for him. No stats would have predicted what those two pitchers did.
Smith was hurt a good portion of last year, but in 2015 between AA and AAA he hit .306 with a .373 OBP plus 57 stolen bases.
Sometimes the art goes beyond the numbers.
Ojeda had a 3.25 FIP the year before the Mets got him and a 3.05 FIP his first year with the Mets. He was the same guy – just had better fortune with the Mets than he did with the Sox. It’s why we keep looking for better ways to look at numbers and results. We don’t have xFIP numbers for Ojeda but we have them for Porcello. His last year with the Tigers he had a 3.68 xFIP. His first year with the Red Sox he had a 3.72 xFIP and last year it was a 3.89 mark. Let’s see what happens to him this year when he doesn’t set a career-best in walk rate, home run rate and strand rate.
It feels to me that you can use what you threw out in this first graph as support of acquiring any guy in the world. It seems like you’re saying — Yeah, I know he wasn’t good but look at these guys who superficially performed better if you just look at traditional stats. It’s all a crapshoot anyway.
It’s humorous to me that you threw out numbers in one paragraph in an attempt to support your case and then in the very next graph said that it goes beyond the numbers.
As for Smith specifically, most of that 2015 damage was done in Double-A. He was nothing special in Triple-A. Among players with at least 100 PA, he was seventh on the team in OPS. It’s like getting excited about what Kevin Plawecki did in Las Vegas.
Smith was nothing special in Triple-A and he was worse than that in the majors. His whole excitement revolves around his speed and he was thrown out on 1/3 of his steal attempts last year. Next year, if he makes the majors out of Spring Training, he’ll be a fourth outfielder.
That sounds about right.
Steven, loved what you have done, PNC will work for you and I hope you do well there.
If the initials are MT, then I’d trade Matz, Lagares, Nimmo, Duda and Ynoa or other combinations. Otherwise, why trade our only southpaw starter? Makes no sense.
Look… Cespedes in RF makes the most sense, especially with that cannon. That way, a platoon of Conforto/ TJ Rivera in LF and Nimmo/ Lagares in CF would be creative. But, moving Ces is unlikely. Get rid of Bruce, Grandy (as terrific a person and teammate he is) and d’Arnaud for as many prospects and/or bullpen pieces as possible. Sign Wieters and keep our arms.
What about moving Duda and platooning Johnson/Flores? That saves about $6 mil and offers even more versatility. That platoon will hit 25-30 long balls.
Lineup:
Nimmo/Lagares
Cabrera
Walker
Cespedes
Johnson/Flores
Wright
Conforto/TJ
Wieters/Rivera
Super Sub: Reyes
Everyone plays and stays sharp. Reyes leads off whenever in the lineup. Kelly moves up upon any injury. Deep lineup. Deep pitching. Balance. Can win!
Everytime someone writes DW in a Lineup….sigh
Why I would not trade Matz:
a) potential
b) affordable and controllable for a long time
c) local product
d) only lefty starter in the organization
At this point the only knock on him is durability but on a rookie salary there’s not as much risk there. Similar situation as d’Arnaud. Until he hits his arb years it’s not as big a concern.
Let’s try a straight Nimmo/Lagares platoon? I think Nimmo can be a pretty decent leadoff hitter. He has a high MILB OBP, and was pretty decent (338) in is brief stint with the Mets.
Love it Mikey, but I can understand being more comfortable with Granderson if you have him.
Nimmo’s name isn’t even mentioned by the front office for their 2017 plans. He put up a very good AAA season and did get on base in his 80 plate appearences but with only 2 extra base hits. Another season in AAA where he develops some EBH will do his career a world of good.