Brandon Nimmo, a nice country boy from Wyoming, has had quite a rollercoaster ride with the Mets organization. As Sandy Alderson’s first top pick as Mets General Manager, Nimmo grabbed the spotlight immediately. The unheralded outfielder from East High School in Cheyenne, Wyoming was a surprising pick at number 11 of the first round. Alderson and Mets scouts praised the young lefty’s smooth swing and patience at the plate. A sturdy centerfield glove and better than average speed made him even more attractive.
Nimmo got off to a relatively slow start in the minors, but gradually saw promotions through the system. From his 2011 rookie league debut through all three A levels Nimmo played five plus seasons. In aggregate, he contributed a nice looking slash line of .285/.389/.421. He seemed to blossom in his two seasons in AAA Las Vegas, where he made the All-Star team with a .935 OPS that included a good showing of power (14 home runs, 28 doubles) and speed (12 stolen bases).
Nimmo got his first taste of the show this past season, seeing 32 games of action with the Mets. In a small sample of 73 at bats, Nimmo hit .274 but showed very little power, with just two extra base hits. Nimmo saw time at all three outfield positions with the Mets and only made one error and a few nifty catches, but he did not have any assists.
He may well have a future as a starter on this team, but that will have to wait at least another season. As of now, it appears the Mets starting outfield will include Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, and Michael Conforto with Juan Lagares playing center against lefties in favor of either Granderson or Conforto, and also getting some time as a late-inning defensive replacement. So where does that leave Nimmo? Most teams carry five outfielders so the front office will have to decide if they let him fill the role held by Alejandro de Aza last year as the fifth outfielder/pinch hitter, or else sign a veteran for that role and let Nimmo play a third season in Las Vegas.
This writer is crossing his fingers for the former option as Nimmo has little else to prove at the minor league level. While de Aza did not see a ton of at bats, his playing time went up substantially when Cespedes hit the disabled list – at least until the ill-fated trade for Jay Bruce dropped him lower in the pecking order. Outfield injuries are common, as evidenced by Lagares and Cespedes last season. Consider that the other two primary outfielders are still unproven and age 36 respectively, and you quickly realize that having a fifth outfielder is more of a necessity than a luxury. When and if the primary four guys are all healthy, at bats will be hard to come by for Nimmo. But even then, it will be to Terry Collins advantage to have that extra option so he doesn’t have to ride out the next extended slump from Granderson or Conforto. As someone who’s proven at every level that he can draw a walk and steal a base, Nimmo should also have value as a pinch hitter.
Another option is to trade Nimmo, but a) he doesn’t have a ton of value and b) with Granderson’s contract up after this season, he’ll have a much clearer path to playing time in the future. Or maybe this is the year this homegrown kid secures his future in Queens.
I believe that a platoon of Nimmo and Lagares would be the best center field option between Conforto and Cespedes.
Dave, we agree. I’m afraid that month of September maybe unrepeatable for Granderson as he get a year further from his prime and they are missing a golden chance to cash him in. My thinking is he is the real glue in the clubhouse that they are afraid of losing. It’s said veterans control the clubhouse and he is a good and smart soldier.
Brian argues that if not for his two real bad slumps in May and August, his numbers would have been more like 2015.
Would like to point out that Nimmo had only 17 plate appearances in the #1 or #2 batting positions, the position he was trained for throughout his minor league career. The rest were #6-9 positions, most of them at #7 which have an RBI mentality, something he was trying to be. When he did hit #1, he had a great series against the Reds including hitting the longest homer by a Mets lefty at Citifield during 2016. His slash line hitting #1 or #2 is .313/.353/.563. While this is the smallest sample, it’s something that when added to Nimmo almost winning the batting title in the PCL.
True, Nimmo played in Vegas in more of a hitter’s park, but he has learned to hit lefties a bit better with experience and he has learned how to drive the ball better. Like all young hitter’s unless his BABIP isn’t exceptionally high, he will struggle to adjust to a new level. Throw in the unfamiliarity of his batting responsibilities and his sporadic play and I think Nimmo wasn’t quite the player we saw.
He’s better off going to Vegas to stay sharp and let Ty Kelly cover the last outfielder roster spot. It may even be prudent to put him at cleanup everyday, just to put that pressure on him so he can be more comfortable in RBI situations in the majors and continue improving against southpaws.
TexasGus, I like your thinking, provided the main four guys are all healthy coming out of ST. I would just like to see the organization handle this kid the right way so as to not shake his confidence. I see him as a Granderson replacement. If the team weren’t in win now mode, we’d probably trade Grandy and accelerate the process. As it stands, I think Dave’s thinking to have Nimmo and Lagares platoon in center, may well be the plan in 2018 post-Granderson. I think everybody loves Grandy, but if the plan is to develop both Conforto and Nimmo, then this has to be Grandy’s last season as a Met.
There is one remote scenario where I could see the Mets trading Grandy at midseason. Cespedes and Lagares are both injured for a time to open a window for Nimmo to play every day and both he and Conforto play extremely well. Then when Cespedes and Lagares come back healthy… It’s a long shot, but it’s hard to imagine the Mets unloading a fan favorite and team leader in the last year of his contract who wouldn’t bring much back in a trade.
I’ve yet to see evidence that anybody in the organization truly believes Nimmo can cut it in CF at the MLB level. He didn’t look particularly good in the corners.
I realize the new idea is that any old body can play CF for the NY Mets, but it’s a lousy notion for a team built around pitching.
At the same time, sure, I guess you can get away with it here and there in a post-optimal world. The expression is: “the bat plays.” The question is: does Nimmo’s bat justify it? I don’t know the answer, but I have a suspicion that the answer will not be a resounding yes.
I still have trouble with the math. If Lagares/Nimmo play CF, and Cespedes in LF, what happens to RF between Conforto and Granderson (assuming Bruce gets traded)?
Feels like a square peg to me. I feel for the kid, and root for him. Seems like a Brewer to me. It’s hard not to wonder if swapping him w/ Nieuwenhuis in that role would be a wash. Don’t think that’s a great comp for anybody.
That pretty much covers it. His future is on a different team, a rebuilding team that can take the time to see if he can be an everyday player, and at what position.
Grandy and cash to the O’s for the relief pitcher they like. Ces,Bell,Walker,Duda a pretty good middle of the order!
Bell?
Scott, who is Bell?
I think he means Bruce.
It still comes down to, IMO, at least one of Duda, Bruce or Granderson traded by ST and another nearer the deadline for Nimmo & Conforto to have any real PT.
Lh hitting of’er who can wear a cf Glove?? 23 years old and cheap..
Hold him!!!!!!!!!!!!
He’s a platoon or 4th of’er at worst…… hold him
I agree, to a point, but the equation is more complex. One thing SA hasn’t done very well is to clear an opportunity for his up-and-coming position players. Even Conforto is, at this moment, on the outside looking in. Holding without opportunity becomes wasteful.
If Nimmo or Cecchini can’t got on the field — can’t contribute to the Mets — than holding becomes a squandered asset.
Nimmo needs a role. I guess 5th OF works on a temporary basis, down in AAA, until somebody gets hurt. But as currently structured, real world, it’s hard to imagine him making meaningful contributions for these NY Mets.
They will need young and cheap position players as the Pitchers begin to get paid.
Unless these guys can draw a major piece of “Now” in a trade, they should stay put.
The rush to Junk these guys is startling—they’re young…they’ve advanced productively
But Nimmo and Cecchini and Kelly and Rivera and Flores are not difference makers on a club – nor do they come heralded like a Benintendi, Sanchez, Lindor, or Correra – and then performed like wildfire. Is it possible for one of them to become an everyday guy? Sure. But it will take a bit of time to find out, and that is something the Mets do not have the luxury of presently.
I think most everyone likes the look of Conforto. He seems to have the talent needed to make an impact. Im all in favor of getting him as many ABs as possible, which will be tough given our lefty hitting corner outfield glut. And Nimmo resides behind Conforto for ABs. In 2018, Conforto will be the every day right fielder is my guess. So then you look at the comment made by Jimmy P: how fair is it to park a guy in AAA who has little to prove, but is not good enough to move the roadblock in the Bigs, such that he becomes a bench guy with few ABs and a diminishing trade value? Cecchini is in the same position. Although they are highly ranked in the Mets prospects list, keep in mind neither are in the MLB top 100 prospects (of which the mets only have 2 in Rosario and Smith) so moving them on in a trade is not like parting with a sure bet, for example Rosario.
I think you are imagining “the rush to junk young players.”
I’m not seeing anyone here saying that Nimmo should be dumped, or is a bum, or anything like that.
The conclusion from some of us is . . . where is the role? How does this guy realistically get on the field?
BTW, picking up the Bruce option is now looking like a huge mistake. I’m surprised and I think I got that wrong. I figured there would be a market for him.
This is one area where I think Collins and Alderson are very much on the same page. They’re of the Pat Riley school of thought where, when you’re in contention, you only play veterans. I’d hate to see us do to Nimmo and others what we did to Dilson Herrera. It’s one thing to swap a prospect for a star that puts you over the top like we did with Fulmer for Cespedes, but how badly do you think Alderson wishes he could undo that Herrera for Bruce trade now? Hererra could be at second on a rookie salary, we wouldn’t have traded for Bruce or offered Walker the QO. That’s a combined $30 million in 2017 salary. Bad moves have a way of trickling down.
I think you are right about SA wanting the Bruce trade back, but I do not think that would have impacted making a QO to Walker, or even in signing Walker longer term, which I think may happen as it has been widely reported how much the team likes Walker. As a result, Herrera and Cheech and Rivera and Flores are all left standing in the game of musical chairs.
Matt let me respond going backwards to your comment:
-While bad moves trickle down if you let them, if you instead cut your losses, you can stop it. That said, I agreed with not letting Bruce go for free. I think he would have gotten 3/50, which is qualifying money. If Trumbo gets it, who considers a glove the annoying thing he wears between atbats, I’m sure Bruce could. It seems that MLB is playing with Alderson right now.
-Having said what I said above, when the Bruce trade was made, I thought Alderson got robbed. Ironically, in reading Reds articles, the sportswriters think the Reds got robbed!
-Riles was my idol, so I can talk Riley for hours. He will play a n y b o d y that will help him win. He played Magic as a rookie, even at center. He took two guys off the streets in Starks and Mason and made them stars. He took a team that won in the mid-20’s three years in a row and won 53 games his first year – doubling it! Just like Parcells did his first year with the Cowboys or the Jets: double the win total. It’s this thinking that makes me despise Terry Collins; he brings nothing to the table. I’m not expecting double the win total from him, but usually a good manager is either a hitting guy or a pitching guy. Being in a position seven years by Fred Wilpon and is neither. Too, he doesn’t have the guts to use a rookie, much less a no name guy, and is incapable of making that no name guy a star.
Please refrain from ever insulting Pat Riley again by placing his name with Terry Collins in any context.
I think Sandy should want a do-over on the Bruce trade. If trading Herrera was a possibility he should have held onto Murphy. As for Nimmo, I’m conflicted on him as a player. I agree that he hasn’t been given a real opportunity to thrive. But I also don’t think he has shown a lot in his limited time, and it’s not like other GMs around baseball are falling over themselves to trade for him.
At the present time, Nimmo would benefit starting the year at AAA instead of as the 5th outfielder. He has done well at that level but still needs to hone any power that he may pocess. When the inevitable injuries occur at the major league level then he will get an opportunity to play this year. In 2018, post Granderson, I can envision him in a centerfield platoon.
If he can actually play CF, I don’t think he needs a lot of power.
I’ve always felt that the quality of his career depended upon his ability to play CF at the MLB level. Last season when the Mets desperately needed a body out there, they refused to give Nimmo a shot. I thought it was telling; the organization does not think he can do it. And this is the club that threw Flores at SS because, hey, he has a glove! That kind of thinking gets exposed over time.
But, again, I hope (in caps!) that Nimmo can handle CF. If so, problem solved!
My fear is that he can’t. When he slots into a corner OF position, then his lack of power presents a problem.
Maybe he’s Nick Markakis? Without the real good glove? I was never a fan of NM, but he’s been a credible major leaguer.
I’ll continue to take the bait here….. Jimmy P often points out the Fact that It doesn’t matter where or how You have ranked a Prospect!!!
It’s a huge leap from Scouts’ evaluation to MLB Productivity…so I often reflect on guys who are now out there as performers who were “lesser lights” as Prospects—- Eaton, Dozier, Turner, Bautista—I was baffled in the early part of Encarnacion’s career that he was lightly regarded and tossed around.
22 year old’s who perform at the top of AA/AAA are very solid prospects. Cheech should project as a guy who might play 2nd base for 8-10 years with a 720-780 ops…60 -75 rbi— and he’ll play for Peanuts and Swag for the next 5 years! That is an incredibly achieveable and projectible outcome for a guy who’s done what he’s been doing. It’s a great outcome and certainly he becomes a major impact if he can do that— and he doesn’t need to “Become Addison Russell” to be a terrific asset.
Cheech and Nimmo have a big chance to emerge over the next 2 years
Here’s the Baseball Reference on Chase Utley…a guy who didn’t see an MLB AB until 24—and waited for a full shot until 26
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/utleych01.shtml
If these guys are part of a trade for a major “keeper”, Fine….but I’m not paving a way for them to play now—and I’m not trading them now, Either. They will either knock down a wall to earn a spot, or they won’t.
This team needs several young, cheap, productive Positional players as these Pitchers graduate to a full wage scale.
Keep them!
Point well made.
And let’s face it, neither Nimmo nor Cecchini are going to get you much on the trading floor. According to reports, SA shopped them both at the deadline last year. Crickets.
They have more value to Mets than anyone else.
On Cecchini, I thought the Walker signing — $17 million balloons! — was telling. Between Flores, Cecchini, Reyes, Rivera, one option was to go cheap at that position and spend on catcher, or the pen, or CF.
I keep waiting for the organization (underlined!) to show that they believe in these guys. Apparently they don’t. Maybe they are right, maybe they are wrong.
One thing that ruins the argument that they never give a chance to young players is a look at the pitching. They have given ample opportunity to every young arm that has come along. And I think they set up Conforto to succeed in 2016, for the most part.
If Smith plays well in AAA this year — and it’s Vegas, so how will anyone know? — then he should get the position in 2018. Rosario, too. That’s pretty significant savings right there.
Right?
I agree with your ultimate conclusion.
I’m not sure about the way you took to get there. In general, you can’t point to the exception and use that as a rationale for doing something. In particular, I don’t like the guys you picked as the exception. Eaton and Dozier came up in stacked farm systems. And even with that, Eaton was ranked third by BA among D’Backs prospects in his last year of eligibility. Dozier ranked 10th and really 2011 was the only year in the minors where he did anything noteworthy. If you’re not a top pick, that’s not the way to get on a BA list and Dozier was an 8th-round pick. Jose Bautista was ranked 7th on BA’s list for the Pirates following his 2002 season in Lo-A and then was injured the next two years.
The only exception would be Turner and the guy had 926 PA in the majors before his magic transformation.
As for Encarnacion, he was the Reds’ second-ranked prospect by BA. He hit decently enough but was killed by his teams’ insistence that he play 3B. Funny how when he played more games at 1B than 3B for the first time in 2012, he had his first big year.
My major take on “Prospects” is that everyone does not arrive to the Offerings of 3 Wise Men…most players “emerge” though some knocks and dings. I wish I had written more precisely to that point—and I’m absolutely appalled at the idea that we’d just dismiss the reality of the process and the specific players involved.
I can’t represent myself as evealuating these guys beyond their pedigree, performance at increasing levels, and their increasing success and production through their growth curve.
Obviously, all teams need cheap and young productive players—this team is in a very fast rotation from Cheap Arms/Expensive Positions to the “opposite” position
JP…. there are some unique situations behind the outfield crowd and the Walker re-sign. Focusing on Cheech, he is at most a year away from a full shot. More likely, he begins to get a shot this year. Wright and Walker and Cabrera and Reyes are purely Seasonal Menu items at this point….and the world’s loudest secret whisper is that nobody expects Wright to successfully play as a full time, long term piece, if at all!!! You subtract Wright from any pretend Lineup or Depth projections and you arrive fairly directly at Cheech. There are 3 high mileage Infielders between Cheech’s “shot” and AAA— he will be in the mix at a very near point.
If you want to speculate on how they value him, maybe the willingness to trade Dilson is also a commentary on Cheech.