For the fourth straight year, there are more Hall-worthy candidates than there are spots on the ballot. But an interesting thing happened since the last election. Former commissioner Bud Selig, the one who turned a blind eye while steroids exploded on his watch, was elected to the Hall. Forgetting for a moment the insanity of having a baseball Hall of Fame with Selig and not Marvin Miller, the election of the commissioner has forced many of the voters, who previously balked at voting for guys with steroids taint, to reconsider their position. Will our writers act the same? Let’s take a look at the guys who drew votes from our panel:
Jeff Bagwell – The most feared NL slugger of the ’90s. You never wanted him up with guys on base. (Hangley)
Barry Bonds – My view on Bonds and other controversial picks has softened over the years to the point where I feel that the Hall would seem ridiculous without him. He has the fourth highest career bWAR of all time, which is enough said. (Rogan)
Roger Clemens – Yet another player whose career numbers are almost insane but has been denied entrance into the hall due to PED concerns. Perhaps 2017 will be the year he garners the requisite 75 percent vote for enshrinement. (Ryan)
Vladimir Guerrero – He has eight Silver Slugger awards to go with his nine All-Star appearances during his 16 year career. The 2004 AL MVP gained notoriety and fame for his exceptional ability to hit poorly thrown pitches. (Allison)
Trevor Hoffman – The closer formerly known as Mo will be a shoe-in for the Hall with 652 saves – 51 more than Hoffman. That’s enough argument the no. 2 all-time saves leader shouldn’t have to buy a ticket for the Hall of Fame. (Koehler)
Jeff Kent – Had a higher OPS+ (123) than either Roberto Alomar (116) or Ryne Sandberg (114) and was above-average defensively until the tail end of his career. Since the BBWAA started voting on the MVP, every other second baseman eligible who’s won one is in the Hall. Kent won the MVP in 2000. (Joura)
Edgar Martinez – Not being asked to play defense should not tarnish an amazing seven-year peak (1995-2001) that featured an OPS+ never dipping below 152 and reaching as high as 185. He hit .329 with yearly averages of 28 homers, 110 RBI and 107 walks over that span. (Barbieri)
Fred McGriff – Being quiet and never playing on a big city team hurts his chances, but he was a terrific player who put up better numbers than some guys in the Hall. (Netter)
Mike Mussina – Since 1901, there are 46 SP either in the Hall or on the current ballot. Mussina ranks third in K/BB ratio (3.58), T18th in ERA+ (123), 10th in Winning Percentage (.638), 29th in innings (3562.2) and 18th in bWAR (82.7). Whatever metric you favor, he’s a no-brainer. (Joura)
Jorge Posada – As a Mets fan, I despised this guy, but I also have to recognize talent and switch hitting Catchers with power who win five silver sluggers don’t just fall off of trees. (Ferguson)
Tim Raines – A disruptive force. Just imagine what prime early-to-mid ’80s Rock would bring on today’s open market. Sorry if that sounded a little too Miami Vice for comfort… (Parker)
Manny Ramirez – Not quite Bonds’ numbers but… pretty hard to argue against him being one of the all-time great hitters of his generation. (Groveman)
Ivan Rodriguez – He was one of the best catchers of his generation. Rodriguez was a game-changer both offensively and defensively. He played 21 years in the majors, was an All-Star 14 times and the AL MVP in 1999. (O’Malley)
Curt Schilling – Tremendous power pitcher with excellent control, he was a post-season beast. Hauled in three Humanitarian awards as well for his charity work, the Lou Gehrig, Roberto Clemente and Branch Rickey awards. (Fox)
Gary Sheffield – A dangerous all-around player who has all of the numbers to be in. (Ferguson)
Lee Smith – He was a dominant closer for many different teams for many years, some may call him a compiler, I would call him the picture of consistency. (Ryan)
Sammy Sosa – The bowdlerization of the mid-90s to mid-00s period doesn’t reaffirm the Hall of Fame’s credibility, it erodes it. Sosa is one of just eight guys to hit 600 MLB home runs, he played a significant role in the sport’s history, and he’s probably going to fall off the ballot this year. (Walendin)
Billy Wagner – Best lefty reliever ever. (Netter)
Larry Walker – A three time batting champ and seven time Gold Glove Award winner. Seems like enough to get in. (Fox)
So, how did our group vote? Here are the ballots for each of our writers:
Dalton Allison – Guerrero, Hoffman, Rodriguez
Joe Barbieri – Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens, Guerrero, Hoffman, Martinez, Ramirez, Rodriguez, Schilling
Scott Ferguson – Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens, Guerrero, Hoffman, Kent, Posada, Ramirez, Rodriguez, Sheffield
John Fox – Bagwell, Raines, Rodriguez, Schilling, Walker
David Groveman – Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens, Hoffman, Kent, Ramirez, Rodriguez, Sheffield
Charlie Hangley – Bagwell, Guerrero, Raines, Rodriguez
Brian Joura – Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens, Kent, Martinez, McGriff, Mussina, Raines, Schilling, Walker
Mike Koehler – Bagwell, Hoffman, Mussina, Smith
Matt Netter – Bagwell, Guerrero, Hoffman, Martinez, McGriff, Raines, Smith, Wagner
Jim O’Malley – Ramirez, Rodriguez
Doug Parker – Bagwell, Raines
Rob Rogan – Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens, Hoffman, Mussina, Raines, Rodriguez, Schilling
Mike Ryan – Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens, Hoffman, Martinez, Raines, Ramirez, Schilling, Smith, Walker
Chris Walendin – Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens, Guerrero, Martinez, Mussina, Raines, Ramirez, Sosa, Walker
In our 14 voter universe, a player needs 11 ballots to reach the 75% bar necessary to earn selection to the Hall of Fame. Here’s how they fared:
12 – Bagwell
Hoffman, Raines, Rodriguez (8); Bonds, Clemens (7); Guerrero, Ramirez (6); Martinez, Schilling (5); Mussina, Walker (4); Kent, Smith (3); McGriff, Sheffield (2); Posada, Sosa, Wagner (1).
For the first time, we’re likely to elect fewer players than the actual voters. Raines, Bagwell and Rodriguez look like they have a good shot to be enshrined this year while Guerrero and Hoffman have a decent chance, too.
Next year’s ballot will see the debut of Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, Scott Rolen, Andruw Jones and others. Let’s hope the real voters continue to make headway with the backlog and the Hall abolishes its silly 10-man restriction.
Only one…interesting…
When there are 19 candidates with a reasonable case and six of our 14 voters select five or fewer people – this is what happens.
You can be anti-steroids, anti-reliever, anti-DH, anti-first ballot and still come up with:
Kent
McGriff
Mussina
Raines
Schilling
Walker
And since most people don’t fall into all four of the “anti” crowds listed above, it should be even easier to fill a ballot.
You forgot Vladimir Guerrero. RF, no steroids, fantastic player even after his knees went in 2005.
This was Guerrero’s first time on the ballot.
There’s a lot of talent to vote on. One of the parameters to reject a candidate I would use if I had a vote would be the “dirt bag” test. This definition would be a very personal one and recognizes that there are “dirt bags” already enshrined that I can’t do anything about.
Those falling under my “dirt bag” qualification would include Schilling, Bonds, Clemens and Sosa. The first three are no-doubters based on their stats, but I perceive them negatively on the “dirt bag” test. Thus, no entrance!
I do like Bagwell, Martinez, Messina, Raines, Rodriguez,
Smith and Wagner.
I would have several questions about this ballot but I’d be most curious how you draw the line so Smith is in and Hoffman is out.
Brian,
It’s a tough call and I would not be upset if Hoffman got in. My choice was made on the basis that I felt Smith was a more feared closer than Hoffman.
Maybe it’s because I saw more of Smith than I did Hoffman. I’ve seen arguments in support of both of them along with Wagner. As I said in an earlier post, there’s a lot of talent eligible for the HOF.
Voter breakdown:
10 votes – Ferguson, Joura, Ryan, Walendin
9 votes – Barbieri
8 votes – Groveman, Netter, Rogan
5 votes – Fox
4 votes – Hangley, Koehler
3 votes – Allison
2 votes – O’Malley, Parker
Question for Scott, Brian, and Mike R: If you’d had an 11th vote, would you have used it? I would have, for what it’s worth.
I would have voted for 14
I definitely would have voted for more. Mussina, McGriff, Schilling and Raines were definitely considerations for me.
Guerrero, Hoffman, Raines, Wagner, McGriff, Bagwell, Martinez, Schilling, Mussina, and Kent get my ten votes.
I’d go Raines, Guerrero, then have to think. Schilling, Hoffman maybe, Mussina, McGriff, Walker, that’s it. I don’t see ten worthy candidates on the list, really only 5. Only Raines and Guerrero pass all tests (at least 10 very, very good years, five as one of the best in baseball, great slash line, great averages, solid totals lastly).
I put Schilling in the PED suspicion category. No, he never failed a test or showed up on a list, but consider:
– he peaked in his late 30s and pitched into his 40s despite struggling with back injuries in his 20s
– he played exclusively for teams that had noted steroid users on the roster – Orioles, Phillies, Red Sox, DBacks. Among his teammates were Brady Anderson, Darren Daulton, Lenny Dykstra, Luis Gonzalez, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, et al.
– he was particularly outspoken about PEDs – doth protest too much?
I also don’t think he was dominant long enough to warrant admission and by all accounts, he’s a jerk.
2500 Hits…250 HR’s…..1400 RBI….. Ted Simmons should be in the HOF
Too true on Marvin Miller.
He needs to go in alongside Curt Flood, and for similar reasons.
MBebeM – I agree with your parameters. By this line of thinking, what about Don Mattingly?
I believe Lee Smith Belongs
Mattingly was just about the best Hitter and finest first baseman anyone has ever seen for about 6 years, in the Mid 80’s. At about the same time, and for just about as long, Dale Murphy was winning two straight MVP’s and 5 Gold Gloves In Centerfield.
Each of them hung around long enough to “accumulate” over 2000 hits, and over 1000 RBI—Murphy had over 1200…. for a “not so brief time span”, each may have been considered in a conversation about “The best Player in The Game”.-BPIG
That sustained period of 5-6 years in the conversation of BPIG may merit Special Consideration with The Hall. To a Great Degree, that’s the Sandy Koufax Story—moreso, that he was the best Pitcher Ever, according to some people.
When I’m measuring Hall of Famers, I’m always trying to think of whether a Guy ever arrived in that BPIG conversation—Best PLayer–Best Pitcher…. Obviously the HOF is about tremendous long term performance and Production—But I think a True HOF’er should also have been in the conversation as a BPIG….. That disqualifies me from Considering Crime Dog…a Great Player, or Mike Mussina…a Great Pitcher.
Vlad, Pudge, and Bagwell. Its the Hall of Fame not the Hall of really really good players… only top 1% get in… the top1% who are not known to have cheated that is.
There’s a great segment that’s been running on MLB network with a roundtable of Ron Darling, Ken Rosenthal, Tom Verducci, Bob Costas, Chris Russo, and Brian Kenney discussing the ballot, how PED suspicion impacts voting, etc. They’ll be reshowing it this weekend.
Too bad it’s not just Darling, Rosenthal and Kenney.