Our proud general manager may never cop to it, but it’s easy to imagine him wishing he could take back that ill-fated in-season trade of second base prospect Dilson Hererra for a certain streaky and one-dimensional slugger from Cincinnati. Bad moves have a way of trickling down and begetting other ill-fated moves and it can easily snowball (if you’re a Knicks fan, you can surely relate). Had we not made this particular move, the subsequent move to offer the qualifying offer to Neil Walker might not have been made as we’d have Hererra slated to take over at the keystone, with plenty of insurance behind him in the way of Wilmer Flores, Jose Reyes, and TJ Rivera. Let’s hope Hererra doesn’t develop into the next Joe Morgan or this will really go down as a blight on Alderson’s GM career.
That we made the qualifying offer to Walker and he accepted, amounts to a $17.2 million payroll commitment. Tack on the $13 million we have committed to Bruce for picking up his option and that’s $30.2 million in unnecessary payroll commitments that could have been better utilized to beef up our bullpen and add a quality catcher. $30.2 million is enough to pay Aroldis Chapman and Matt Weiters. How would that make you feel about our chances in 2017? Now, granted, those two come with multi-year commitments, so perhaps that’s not an entirely fair scenario to consider as an alternate. However, looking only at free agents on one and two year contracts, we could have reallocated that money to land Wilson Ramos and bring in two solid relievers along the lines of Fernando Salas, Jerry Blevins, Brad Zeigler, Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo, Boone Logan, Javier Lopez, Travis Wood, Joe Smith, et al, and maybe still have $10 million to spare.
Instead, Sandy Alderson finds himself in a game of musical chairs, waiting out the market when one of the obvious teams in need of a power hitting outfielder – the Blue Jays, Orioles, Rangers, Phillies, As, et al – is still in need of one once the more appealing free agent options like Mark Trumbo and Jose Bautista are off the market. Hopefully, the waiting game pays off and Alderson can get a useful reliever or a solid prospect in return for Bruce. Then we can still turn some of that payroll savings into another bullpen arm or two. Until then, we seem to be in a holding pattern.
Knowing sandy and Wilpons they would probably not spend that extra money
Forget the trade. A forgivable miscalculation — the Mets were desperate for offense, etc.
But:
Picking up the $13 million option on Bruce seemed like a no-brainer at the time.
Now it feels like a pair of self-inflicted handcuffs.
It will be interesting to see how this is resolved. I feel like it could go either way.
Jimmy P – “self-inflicted handcuffs.” Sounds like a Guns N Roses tribute band.
At the time, I agreed with him picking up the option. $13 million is a ton of money to all of us, but for a prime-aged MLB player who routinely hits 30 homers a year, it’s really not a lot. This is not like we’re stuck with Ryan Howard making $25MM and striking out 200 times. This guy is still pretty young and has one reasonable year left. I’m not sure we’ll get quite what we hoped in return, but I do think we’ll be able to trade him without picking up any of his salary. I just hope that all those relievers I mentioned aren’t picked off the board by then.
At the time picking up Bruce’s option made little sense. It was a hedge against the possibility of losing Cespedes. But the flaw in that thinking is Bruce doesn’t replicate Cespedes’ offensive production and there is no chance Bruce would have gotten $13M on the open market. Sandy should have read the market better and cut his losses on Bruce. If Cespedes walked, there would have been options in free agency. And since Cespedes re-signed – everyone’s preferred scenario – letting Bruce leave would have eased the outfield logjam.
I think this is a little revisionist history.
I think here in mid January it’s defensible (but not a slam dunk) to say that Bruce wouldn’t get that contract but on Nov. 2nd when they actually made the decision? I don’t think that was what was thought by the overwhelming majority of people then.
We have seven people who write regularly for the site and not one of them came out and wrote an article and said it was a mistake to pick up Bruce’s option. On Nov. 4, Matt wrote an article called, “Solving the Mets 2017 outfield puzzle,” and laid out several different options, including both trading and keeping Bruce. Nowhere did he call the move to re-up with Bruce a mistake. That article had 42 comments and not one of them said picking up Bruce’s option was a mistake.
Now, to be fair, you commented, “Losing Cespedes will hurt, Bruce isn’t good enough to make up for it” – but that’s not the same thing as saying outright that it’s a mistake and no one took the ball any further than you did.
In BK’s defense, he’s a Knicks fan and tired of seeing what happens when one bad move snowballs into several.
I’m sure Alderson will keep trying to trade Bruce and likely will find a taker once most or all of the other sluggers have signed. But if he’s forced to take Bruce to spring training I would hope that the plan in spring games would be to play him mostly in RF but with a number of games at 1B too.
We don’t know how healthy Lucas Duda will be or whether he’ll bounce back to be the 25+ HR guy we expect. If Lucas starts slow or pulls something it would be nice to have a power lefty bat to plug in at first. I don’t trust Wilmer Flores that much against righties.
Plus if Bruce shows some competence at first it would only increase his trade value as the season moves along.
Chapman would take $86M over 5 years, to lump him in a discussion about 1 year’s payroll is comparing apples to oranges.
No matter what they are doing or did with Bruce, the Mets still need a LH reliever for the bullpen.
Baseball is a funny unpredictable game. Watch Bruce end up leading the Mets in HR and RBI.
I have harped on getting Mallex Smith from the Braves. Let’s see what he does now that he is in Tampa.
Slightly off topic, but not by much:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-mets-havent-done-enough/#more-240683
Reading all the quotes and notes regarding Jay Bruce, I can’t help but laugh at the Mets leaking that “insurance isn’t free” with regard to spending the $13MM to have “leverage with Yoenis Cespedes”. Leverage? What leverage? Bruce was said to be a goner before the playoffs even ended. Besides, if you were Cespedes, was Bruce going to worry you when you knew they didn’t want him? That probably is what’s hurting Bruce’s value the most: the big mouths inside the Mets.
While Matt is honest enough to say that he originally agreed with resigning Bruce, I also thought it was a good idea to resign him in order to flip him for something. While that may now look like a long shot, I keep remembering something I read about stocks when they have plummeted after you bought: “You don’t lose money until you sell.”
There is no reason to be impatient about Bruce because whatever team is willing to give up a first round pick and real money for a defensive stiff like Mark Trumbo, would be much better off giving up a prospect for Bruce. Trumbo stands in the outfield hoping the ball is hit to the other guys. Bruce is a decent outfielder and has a good arm. He certainly has value and I think all fans should not be impatient to that.
Bruce may even be a better deal than the oft-injured Bautista, who wants $17MM.
Gus – I completely agree. If we’re a GM In need of a power bat, I’d be more inclined to give up far less in return for Bruce on a short commitment.
It’s been a curious market. I really thought Bruce at $13 million would be desirable and that SA would get something in return. Not so sure about that anymore. In fact, I’d say he needs to sweeten that pot in order to come back with true talent — either by adding a second player or chipping in some order of millions.
Looking at salaries across MLB, $17.2 million for one year of Neil Walker looks like a clear case of a good player being overpaid.
How many doubles did he hit last season? Twelve? Ten?
(It was nine. An underwhelming total of 33 XBH in 2016. Murphy hit 47 doubles for the Nats. 47 > 9 for those without easy access to a calculator. Random fact: In previous four seasons w/ Mets, Murphy hit 40, 38, 37, 38 doubles.)
Bautista, Trumbo, Carter, Napoli… Bruce? That’s a lot of power…and a lot of flawed, one dimensional hitters and limited ball players.
The Mets need help in the bullpen especially with the impending Familia suspension. That should be the immediate priority. Sign a free agent reliever sooner rather than later because the Mets can’t risk being caught without a chair. Then deal with the Bruce trade, even if it is a salary dump, in order to balance the payroll. The team has more options in the outfield than it has in the bullpen. A weakness in the bullpen is therefore riskier for their playoff chances.
MLBTR is reporting that the Mets are asking for two prospects for Jay Bruce. LOL, I understand why Alderson wants his two prospects back but he got hosed, so that is a bit of a stretch. Hence, let’s start planning on having Bruce at Citifield until July.
There could be way worse problems than that.
I seriously doubt the sticking point would be quantity of prospects. Besides, anyone and everyone is considered a “prospect” in the blogosphere. Ive seen career minor leaguers who were 30+ being called prospects.
In my book, if you’re not in the top 10 (maybe up to 15ish), you’re not really worthy of a prospect label. Everyone else should be called filler pieces or lottery tickets.
i agree
At this point in the off season, getting the $13M off the books with Bruce and reapportioning it to the bullpen is the priority.
The Orioles, Rangers or Phillies will make the deal in a salary dump. Really, nothing gained or lost as long as no money is involved. After all,the Mets picked up the option as insurance that they ended up not needing. Better safe than sorry.
Early in the offseason, Alderson said that he wanted to trade Bruce first before adding payroll. But, don’t forget he was looking to get a reliever back. Now, he is more open to signing one, but he wants Blevins, and Blevins wants three years.
The biggest problem with Alderson is that he doesn’t understand who his audience is. You are in New York, act like it. Don’t say such stupid things when the team is doing well. It shakes the fans’ enthusiasm. The Cubs never acted this way, neither did the Dodgers. Heck, the even team from the evaporating city of Cleveland signed a big free agent and Detroit with its market issues has a bigger payroll. There’s plenty of money in baseball.
The Mets can add a reliever and then trade Bruce, but Alderson will be more restricted in what he can get back if he signs the reliever first. He said he wants to be under $150MM and he has room even without dumping Bruce. So while he keeps his options open, he appears to still be in “bean counter” mode. Don’t cry for their pocketbooks, they have plenty.
Generally, the wait and see mode is appropriate—there’s a big shakeout coming when the team hits Spring Training. 4 of 5 Pitchers and 3 of 4 Infielders were shut down/”surgical” at the end of the season.
I’m hopeful that Bruce is working on a 1st base glove…I will believe the “Spinal Column”– Duda, Wright, Walker–is healthy when I see it.
I believe Alderson is treating Bruce as a Lottery Ticket… he may have value—no big deal if he doesn’t…. he’ll be easily “dumped”
The reliever question is more about Sandy’s aversion to long and expensive RP Contracts.
Unfortunately, this column is it is based on the faulty and inaccurate premise that Dilson Herrera’s absence actually has some relevance to the Mets. It doesn’t.
Nothing Herrera did last year indicates that he would be ready to take over the starting job on a contending team. And besides, the Mets still have WIlmer Flores, who is light years ahead of Herrera right now. And they also have TJ Rivera, and Gavin Cecchini for depth. . So Herrera’s absence does not diminish the second base picture in any way whatsoever.
And Neil Walker’s wasn’t re-signed to play second base, per se. Walker was brought back as a hedge in case Cespedes did not re-sign. It was a gamble, but one that the Mets had to take. Walker is here because of the need for a RH bat with some power, not because of any need or short-fall at second base.
Given those realities, its hard to see how Dilson Herrera plays any role in the calculus of Jay Bruce right now.