The Mets have six full seasons of the Sandy Alderson-Terry Collins regime under their belt. Since the 2011 season, they’ve never had fewer than 45 players suit up for the club in a season. They actually used fewer players last year (46) than in their pennant-winning season of 2015 (49). In general, change has been part of life for the club the past six seasons. Only three players have appeared in at least one game the past six seasons.
Which makes the upcoming season so interesting. With the return of Yoenis Cespedes and Neil Walker, the Mets figure to have a majority of last year’s team back for 2017. A quick count shows 24 players who wore the uniform in 2016 as likely to wear it again this year. And that’s not counting the two unsigned relievers or Jay Bruce or Matt Reynolds or a handful of relievers who could easily make a few appearances. It’s not out of the question that 30 guys or more who played for the team last year could see action again.
Is that normal? Beats me – let’s count and see. Of the 46 guys who played for the team in 2016, 24 played the previous year. Of the 49 guys who played in 2015, 25 played in 2014, too. So, we could see a few more than we’ve had previously. But let’s look at it from the other direction. Can we name 10 guys from last year that we’d bet the rent money wouldn’t play for the 2017 club?
Here’s my take, listed in order from the most likely not to be back, as of today. Obviously free agent signings or trades before the start of the season could change this list.
Campbell
De Aza
Bastardo
Ruggiano
Colon
Verrett
K. Johnson
Loney
Niese
Henderson
Someone else could easily have a different list – Bruce, for sure – but this one certainly seems reasonable. And included on the list are three guys that the Mets let leave before and brought back. Let’s say that Bruce gets dealt and both Jerry Blevins and Fernando Salas sign elsewhere. Who else would you list? Would you really make a large wager on Gavin Cecchini or Josh Smoker or Gabriel Ynoa not making an appearance in Queens?
But what makes the 2017 team feel different is not the fact that guys who appeared in 10 games or who had 30 PA will be back. Rather it’s that the guys who played the most are returning. Nine of the 11 players with the most PA for the club will be back and the same nine of 11 top pitchers in innings will be back, too. And it’s not like we want James Loney or Alejandro De Aza back, either. We want Lucas Duda and Michael Conforto to get their playing time and more.
This year feels like bringing the old gang back together. But it could be a different story in 2018. Only three players are signed for 2018 and one of those is David Wright, who takes day to day to a different level and has to be considered a retirement candidate at any point between now and Opening Day, 2018. If Bruce is not traded, it’s a possibility that seven starting position players from 2017 could be elsewhere the following year.
Now, you wouldn’t wager on that outcome. But it’s possible that Travis d’Arnaud gets injured again and the Mets move on. It’s possible that Dominic Smith plays so well in Triple-A that they make no effort to re-sign Duda. It’s possible that Walker follows up with an even better year and wants a long-term contract that Alderson is unwilling to give. It’s possible that Amed Rosario is the star we all think and makes picking up Asdrubal Cabrera’s option not necessary. It’s possible Wright retires. It’s possible Curtis Granderson becomes a late-career wanderer like Carlos Beltran and leaves via free agency. And no one will be surprised if Bruce is not in Queens in 2018.
If the pitchers are healthy and the hitters don’t repeat their situational hitting from a year ago, this team is good and filled mostly with players the fans like. That’s a good thing. But it may also not last. So enjoy those starting position players this year while you can. And even the pitching isn’t guaranteed to be back completely. No one will be shocked if after the 2017 season, the Mets decide to move a pitcher they don’t think they can sign to a long-term contract.
Almost the entire list of guys expected to go, have already gone.. colon, verrett, Johnson, Niese, loney, … Pretty sure they and the others on the list have already been dealt.
The weight of the payroll is going to start shifting from the bats to the arms. As the young guns get more expensive, we’ll need to move on from veterans to young guys in the lineup. That part of Alderson’s plan is working well.
So true. But wouldn’t we have $$ being freed up from the bats to our arms anyway? Granderson will be gone, So will Walker, Cabrera…maybe Duda. We have replacements for them in Conforto/Nimmos, Flores, Rosario, & Smith. I know, I know; it won’t work out perfectly that way; but we have them in-house now, and the money saved would shift to the staff.
The rotation of payroll weighting toward the arms is going to be a big feature of all future forecasts. It needs to be taken into account now…the “dry powder” that is now trade-able includes a good many “almost Ready/Ready Guys”…Conforto, Nimmo, Cheech, Smith, Rosario, as well as young guys who are still controlled—Flores, Plawecki.
Outfitting the 2017 via trade must preserve and even add to the balance of Position Players who are young and cheap.
Harvey and Wheeler, the clock is ticking. Do they sign them to extensions or risk losing them for nothing,not even a draft pick.
The Mets will hope that Harvey has a stellar season so his value in the offseason skyrockets. He will be traded for a haul if in fact he pitches the way he’s capable. They will not lose him for nothing that much I do know.
We need to see if they can stay healthy and productive before anything else.
Although it is interesting to think about using a multi-year contract as a way to make a move to the bullpen more appealing for Wheeler.
It is highly probable that 2018 will look very different. I believe it will look like this:
1b- D. Smith
2b- TJ Rivera
ss- A.Rosario
3b- Reyes
c – TBD
lf – Cespedes
cf – Nimmo
rf – Conforto
A lot of promise, not a ton of power. The 2018 team if it looks like this will have to be driven by tremendous pitching. Dollar wise,I am sure the Wilpons will love this lineup all day ! I won’t mind it if the Mets win the WS in 2017…
One thing Metphin, in 2018, Flores may become a regular by default but Cechinni must be a strong consideration. I can’t see a popgun hitter with little defense like Rivera being more than a role player.
Right now, my expectation is that they pick up Cabrera’s option and bring back one of Duda-Granderson-Walker on a short-term deal.
For completeness:
23 holdovers from 2011 to 2012
23 holdovers from 2012 to 2013
29 holdovers from 2013 to 2014
Since your last bit postures on 2 year holdovers, let take a look.
12* holdovers from 2011 to 2013 (including Satin who played in 11,13 but not 12)
13 holdovers from 2012 to 2014
17* holdovers from 2013 to 2015 (including Harvey who missed 14 with TJ)
14 holdovers from 2014 to 2016
They both seem pretty steady to me, and i dont see any reason for extra turnover in 2018. Of course, lots of these players are crappy role players while we care about starters and SPs.
The situation with the possible defection of almost the entire starting lineup leaves a team that isn’t too formidable. One possible solution is to trade one of the upcoming pitcher free agents for one very good hitter. Like trading Harvey or deGrom for a Sterling Marte, for example, as Pittsburgh has excess outfielders back lacks arms.
Hard for me to believe that Alderson leaves the lineup so depleted is established players, as we know he’s a big believer in the “back of the baseball card” mentality.
Not many playoff-contending organizations would be comfortable with two rookies in the everyday lineup (Smith, Rosario, potentially). It doesn’t seem in keeping with how these Mets roll.
It will be interesting to watch how they handle it.
In 2018 the Mets will have $70M come off the payroll, $90M if Wright has to retire because of injury. Cespedes, Wright, TDA, Lagares,Flores, Familia, and all the starting pitchers will be the corp that is coming back. Alderson should be able to fill in many 2018 holes with $70M. The 2017 offseason should be a very lively one in the blogoshere.
The free agent class next winter is not too sexy. The stud will be Jonathan Lucroy. There are names like Carlos Gonzalez, JD Martinez and Carlos Gomez, but other than Lorenzo Cain and maybe Brent Lawrie, there aren’t any names to excite. Jay Bruce actually fits in there somewhere as a decent option.
The following winter will offer names like Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy (can we get him back?), Clayton Kershaw, Adam Jones and Andrew McCutchen.
I would have mention the “value plays” that Alderson enjoys, but why get pissed off from now?
Over the past three seasons, JD Martinez has a .299/.357/.540 line, which translates to a 145 OPS+, which is the 10th-best mark in the majors, one point behind Bryce Harper and one point ahead of Freddie Freeman. Since he’s not a CF, he’s likely not a target of the Mets but he’ll be the top dog among the names you list in free agency.
I expect him to be well paid, but think he makes more than Lucroy? Also, I don’t expect the Mets to sign any of these guys. I expect them to “let the market settle”.
Look at it this way – what’s the largest free agent contract ever given to a catcher? Lucroy’s not going to get the deal that either Mauer or Posey got, who both got huge extensions from their original club. To the best of my knowledge, the biggest FA contract for a catcher is the one that McCann got, which was 5/$85 from the Yankees. This year Cespedes got over $100 million and last year Heyward got about twice as many dollars as McCann. Plus, the Yankees got McCann starting at his age 30 season. Whoever gets Lucroy will get him starting at his age 32 season.
Great article Brian – it puts year to year turnover into an interesting perspective. Despite the heartache, I’ve come to love the Mets of recent years. Wright, Yo, Bart + Ace studs will be a great “throwback” team to look back at one day.