It’s still a bit hard to believe what the Mets have with Jacob deGrom. No one considers his 2016 as especially great, yet through his first 21 starts of the season, he had a 2.30 ERA, a 1.050 WHIP and a 4.4 K/BB ratio. Then he struggled in his last three starts before winding up on the DL and ultimately having non-TJ elbow surgery.
For a comparison, Noah Syndergaard finished the year with a 2.60 ERA, a 1.149 WHIP and a 5.1 K/BB ratio. Is a healthy deGrom better than a healthy Syndergaard? Hopefully we find out in 2017. The expectation is that deGrom will start Spring Training with no special limitations. Here’s what our group expects him to do this year:
| IP | ERA | Ks | BB | HR | FIP | Avg FBv | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Allison | 200 | 2.70 | 160 | 42 | 17 | 3.34 | 94.2 |
| Joe Barbieri | 174.3 | 3.21 | 179 | 45 | 18 | 3.26 | 94.1 |
| John Fox | 185 | 2.80 | 190 | 40 | 17 | 2.99 | 94.6 |
| Charlie Hangley | 167 | 2.91 | 181 | 37 | 7 | 2.24 | 94.5 |
| Brian Joura | 205 | 2.54 | 216 | 46 | 17 | 2.84 | 94.9 |
| Mike Koehler | 165 | 2.80 | 165 | 37 | 15 | 3.05 | 94.1 |
| Matt Netter | 205 | 2.45 | 210 | 48 | 13 | 2.68 | 94.0 |
| Jim O’Malley | 175 | 3.05 | 172 | 42 | 13 | 2.92 | 93.5 |
| Rob Rogan | 185 | 2.65 | 192 | 37 | 14 | 2.71 | 94.5 |
| Mike Ryan | 173 | 2.74 | 193 | 73 | 16 | 3.44 | 94.3 |
| Chris Walendin | 175 | 2.75 | 165 | 44 | 15 | 3.18 | 93.3 |
We expect him to pitch more innings than in 2016, when he finished with 148 IP. Charlie forecasts the fewest innings for deGrom with 167, while three guys see him reaching 200 IP. Also, we expect the velocity issues that plagued deGrom at the beginning of last year not to be an issue. In a somewhat related item, eight of our panel see a K/9 of 9.0 or greater. The forecast is somewhat similar to the one we had for Syndergaard, with a high ERA of 3.21 for deGrom (Joe) compared to a high of 3.17 for Syndergaard.
Here’s what the group thinks deGrom will do in 2017:
Our group forecast is almost identical for these first two pitchers. We forecast both Syndergaard and deGrom to finish with identical 2.75 ERAs but with Syndergaard finishing with 12 more innings. Meanwhile, we’re up to 27 teams with their ZiPS forecasts released on FanGraphs but still no Mets. So, let’s compare the Mets360 projections with Steamer:
| IP | ERA | Ks | BB | HR | FIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets360 | 182.7 | 2.75 | 184 | 45 | 15 | 2.99 |
| Steamer | 190 | 3.49 | 187 | 49 | 21 | 3.44 |
Our innings forecast is right in line with the computer model, but Steamer shows both a higher ERA and FIP. The biggest reason is that Steamer expects him to allow more homers. The other big difference is we expect deGrom to outperform his peripherals while Steamer does not.
Check back Wednesday for our next projection.
Lets go deGrom!!
176 IP, 3.20 ERA, 171 K, 43 BB, 18 HR, FIP 3.31 Avg FB 93.8
deGrom used to be dominant, “The Degrominator”, most of the time but his reduced velocity has reduced the amount of dominating games he will have when he was an elite starter with the put away fastball. I still believe that deGrom is still a #1 starter but more like the 14th or 15th best starter in the National League. He really knows how to “pitch” and has the fortitude is pitch very well even on days he doesn’t have his best stuff.
In his first 13 starts last year, JDG did not average 94 with his fastball in a game once. In his last 11 starts, he did it six times. And two of the times in that closing stretch when he didn’t do it were his final two starts of the year, when he was seemingly pitching hurt.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=10954&position=P&type=11&gds=&gde=&season=2016
I think we’ll see increased velocity from him in 2017, compared to a year ago.