Today’s multiple projection piece focuses on infielders, with a look at David Wright, Jose Reyes and Wilmer Flores. Lucas Duda may figure in here, too, but the idea was to hold him off for last to see if we can learn anything about his ability to play during Spring Training. We seemingly get daily updates on Wright but Duda information hasn’t been quite as available.
Wright seems able to bend but not throw, there are rumors of Reyes in the outfield and there’s talk of Flores filling in at three infield positions. Right now the whole thing seems extremely muddy and that’s without even any consideration of Duda’s health. If Wright starts on Opening Day, he easily becomes the MLB regular with the least amount of chance to play 162 games. Other than that, who knows? Here are our individual picks for the trio:
| Wright | Reyes | Flores | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA | OPS | PA | OPS | PA | OPS | |
| Dalton Allsion | 200 | .682 | 460 | .697 | 430 | .673 |
| Joe Barbieri | 277 | .723 | 419 | .711 | 335 | .756 |
| John Fox | 190 | .700 | 450 | .760 | 480 | .795 |
| Charlie Hangley | 182 | .873 | 415 | .820 | 213 | .759 |
| Brian Joura | 225 | .775 | 490 | .690 | 215 | .710 |
| Mike Koehler | 150 | .775 | 350 | .695 | 500 | .750 |
| Matt Netter | 275 | .700 | 450 | .690 | 400 | .850 |
| Jim O’Malley | 305 | .770 | 410 | .690 | 415 | .750 |
| Rob Rogan | 176 | .765 | 392 | .730 | 310 | .750 |
| Mike Ryan | 150 | .720 | 574 | .745 | 435 | .750 |
| Chris Walendin | 250 | .795 | 350 | .715 | 425 | .825 |
Jim takes the optimist title on Wright’s playing time with 305 PA, while Charlie does so with his production, as he has Wright supplying an .873 OPS. The two Mikes are the playing time bears (150 PA) while Dalton sees only a .682 OPS.
In conjunction with Wright’s lack of playing time, Mike R. sees Reyes amassing 574 PA, while Charlie sees him with the most production, with an .820 OPS. Everyone sees Reyes getting at least 350 PA, yet five of us see him failing to crack a .700 OPS. Mike K. sees Flores getting 500 PA and Matt sees an .850 OPS. Charlie and I see Flores with the least amount of playing time, while Dalton is very bearish on results, as he has Flores with just a .673 OPS.
As expected, our individual forecasts are all over the map. Here are our official group forecasts for the trio:
Our group numbers seem mostly to make sense. Wright and Reyes combine for about what you would expect for a full season of PA, perhaps a bit on the light side. But Flores has a role much greater than short side of a platoon at 1B, an indication of him seeing time at other positions. The Flores OPS number seems optimistic for that many PA, especially for a guy with a lifetime .661 mark against RHP. Now let’s see what the computer models think:
| Wright | Reyes | Flores | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA | OPS | PA | OPS | PA | OPS | |
| Mets360 | 216 | .765 | 433 | .711 | 378 | .750 |
| Steamer | 253 | .723 | 449 | .683 | 312 | .748 |
| ZiPS | 331 | .712 | 456 | .707 | 477 | .723 |
Usually, my default assumption is to defer to the projection models, unless there’s something we know that the computers don’t. In this case, it might be best to make an exception. Not that we know something but rather that no one knows anything. It’s interesting how close the OPS projections are for each system for both Reyes and Flores. Playing time for Reyes, too.
The ZiPS comp for Wright is Billy Johnson, who drew MVP votes in his rookie year of 1943 before leaving for World War II. He came back to play until 1953 but did not have anywhere close to the peak of Wright. ZiPS goes back even further for Reyes, picking out Jersey Joe Stripp, who was no Jack Glasscock. But finally, with Flores, we get a comp that might bring a smile to your face. ZiPS picks Mike Lowell, a four-time All-Star who twice drew MVP support. Lowell got a much later start than Flores but in the first decade of the 21st Century, Lowell put up a 111 OPS+ over 5,897 PA.
Already we have heard the Mets say that if David Wright isn’t ready, he won’t be activated. As such, my prediction is less than 120 at bats in a Rusty Staub “pinch hitter deluxe” position.
It is very difficult to project Wright and Reyes at third base because Wright is such an unknown. By the ended of the season, I can see Reyes starting more games at third base than Wright. Judging by the way TC manages, that will also mean Cabrera and Walker will be getting very little rest. Flores will get his AB’s platooning at first, pinch hitting, and spelling Walker. Collins will lean on Reyes heavily.
Wright 225 PA 801OPS
Reyes 536 PA 757 OPS
Flores 260 PA 792 OPS
That’s a lot of optimism! I’d be very happy if Reyes produced like that because I think he’s going to see the most playing time of the bunch. We didn’t break out the individual components of OPS but I’d be curious if the group thought that Reyes would be able to duplicate his ISO from last year. Even when his AVG fell off badly in September, Reyes was still posting his best ISO since 2008.
I’ve been less surprised by Reyes’s uptick in power, personally. It seems like a natural progression that we’ve seen before from other athletes. As the legs begin to play a smaller role in their games, and as bodies mature and grow bigger, the power becomes greater.
He’s always been able to go deep, but I think the nature of his game has shifted.
I would prefer more OBP than SLG for Jose, but I don’t think it’s going to happen. Right now, he’s just a bad leadoff hitter against RHP.
It’s probably the thing that most troubles me when I look at the Mets vs. the Nats. The Nationals will have Eaton and Turner at the top of the order, getting on base all the time, and with speed, and the Mets just don’t have anything comparable.
Yeah, we usually think of power developing/not falling off with older players but the Reyes 2016 power still seems different to me.
His ISO went down in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 and then to have a rebound to 2008 levels is not what I consider a natural progression. He hit 6 triples over 1,593 PA from 2013-15 and then last year hit 4 in 279 PA. He hit a HR every 61.3 PA in 2013-15 and then hit one every 34.9 PA last year. Neither of those rates seem sustainable.
Mets new beat writer for nj.com has this to say today:
1. David Wright said he’s still on track to be ready for opening day
2. TC said Wright and Wheeler both threw with no discomfort today.