The struggles of the leadoff hitters have gained the most negative attention so far in 2017, so we haven’t focused very much on the lack of production here in the early going for Neil Walker. Certainly, the first hitters combining for a league-worst .374 OPS has been a huge problem and it’s amazing the Mets have scored as many runs as they have with such dreadful performance from the top of the order. But Walker was counted on to provide a big bat and has been essentially replacement level the first three weeks of the season.
We saw three distinct periods from Walker in 2016. He got off to a very good start (.963 OPS in his first 23 games) and finished with an incredible kick (1.215 OPS in his final 23 games) but was largely ineffective for the bulk of the season, with a .613 OPS from May 2 to July 26, a span of 262 PA in 67 games. So far in 2017, he has a .576 OPS.
No one looks good when the hits aren’t falling in and Walker, with a lifetime .305 BABIP, has a .226 mark in the category. On top of that, he isn’t making up for a poor average with power, as he has just four extra-base hits in 74 PA, including just one homer. The one redeeming quality for Walker so far is that he’s kept a solid walk rate, with a 10.8 BB%.
Digging deeper, we see the problem isn’t strikeouts, as Walker’s 16.2 K% is lower than last year’s 18.3 rate. On top of that, his batted ball profile is similar to a year ago, with a slight uptick in LD%, the type of ball that typically has the best results for a hitter. Likewise with his hit distribution, which is right in line with a year ago.
Walker’s troubles this year are a direct result of his struggles versus RHP. Against righties, he has a .146/.250/.220 line. When Walker came to the Mets, his history had been marked by hitting righties well and struggling against lefties. He had such a good overall line last year because he broke out against southpaws. Walker is still performing well against lefties this year but his inability to hit righties has surprisingly been his Kyrptonite.
And the way righties have been beating him in 2017 is with hard stuff, both four-seam and two-seam fastballs. According to Brooks Baseball, Walker is 0-10 against four-seam fastballs from righties and 2-13 against sinkers (two-seam) with both of those hits being singles. That’s 2-23 (.087) against fastballs. In 2016, Walker was 29-109 against four-seamers and 23-52 against sinkers. That’s 52-161 (.323), with 15 of those hits going for extra-bases, including 10 HR.
Here is the information in pictures. Both grids show his results against fastballs thrown by righties, with this first one being from 2016:
When thrown a fastball in the strike zone in 2016, Walker was 37-97 (.381). Now here’s the same chart for 2017:
When thrown a fastball in the strike zone so far in 2017, he’s 1-10.
Of course it’s early and there’s plenty of time for Walker to bounce back and have a season similar to what he gave the Mets in 2016. Still, no one would choose for a hitter to get beat on fastballs in the strike zone, even in a sample as tiny as this. Does it mean anything? Not at this point. But it is something to watch in his trips to the plate going forward. If 1-10 turns into 4-40, then we have a big problem.
Another thing to watch is where those pitches are. In 2016, righties threw fastballs to Walker up and away 18.43 percent of the time. But here in 2017, that percentage is 28.15 in the upper left 2×2 quadrant. The stereotype is that lefties like the ball low and Walker last year feasted on balls on the lower half (and below) of the strike zone. We’ve seen Walker speak to the umpires about high pitches being called strikes here in 2017. Let’s see if pitchers continue to go upstairs against him.
Brian,
A very interesting analysis. We all hope that his production begins to improve, especially from the left side.
This will probably be Walker’s last year in a Mets uniform. He’s usually a solid performer, but his age and salary will be too high for a front office that needs to find a way to extend their starting pitchers. Next year could see Cecchini at 2B, though some will call for Flores.
Thanks!
I think it’s too soon to say Walker’s future with the Mets. There were talks about a multi-year deal previously and if he hits for 140+ games like he did in 2016, it wouldn’t surprise me if they tried to bring him back. But it sure would be nice to see some production from him right now with Cespedes, d’Arnaud and Duda missing from the lineup.
He’s here because he’s a veteran who can hold his own while Sandy and Terry figure out other things. But he sure isn’t providing the offense… Have to believe his large contract means he’ll have a long time to figure it out though.
Nice analysis of what is happening. A RHP has started 11 games. Maybe it is time to move him down in the batting order vs RHP starters until he gets out of this funk. Then again, with all the injuries, that may not be feasible. Walker is a professional hitter so I expect him to soon right himself.
The $17 million dollar man.
Excellent analysis, Brian. Walker has always been a streaky hitter, but thankfully he still brings value when he’s not hitting in the way of leadership and defense. For all the lamenting about letting Daniel Murphy’s late-blooming bat get away, I don’t think anyone would argue how much better Walker is as a second baseman. One thing I found very refreshing last year – as did Mets pitchers – was how many double plays the Walker-Cabrera combo turned last year.