The Mets were rained out Tuesday night and the initial reaction from nearly everywhere was how fortunate this was because it gave the walking wounded hitters another day to recover. That’s absolutely true but to me the biggest benefit lies elsewhere. In my mind the prime advantage is for the relievers, who now have had back-to-back days of rest following Monday’s scheduled off-day.
From organizational philosophy to missing their closer at the start of the season to all of the extra-inning games to starters not going deep in April to in-game usage, the Mets’ pen has been in a constant state of being overworked. But now every single reliever will have had a minimum of two days off. The organizational philosophy is that any reliever who gets one day off is immediately recharged. I passionately dislike and disagree with this belief.
The organization sees nothing wrong with relief pitchers constantly having appeared in three of the last four games and considers those guys as not only available but fresh and ready to go. And much like starters throwing 130 pitches, some relievers can pitch with that type of workload and others simply cannot.
Let’s take a look at the relievers and how rested they are coming into today and also their usage previously.
| Player | How Rested | Previous Usage |
|---|---|---|
| Jerry Blevins | 3 days | 4 of the last 5 |
| Josh Edgin | 3 days | 2 of the last 3 |
| Jeurys Familia | 2 days | 3 of the last 4 |
| Sean Gilmartin | 7 days | 1 |
| Addison Reed | 4 days | 3 of the last 4 |
| Hansel Robles | 3 days | 1 |
| Fernando Salas | 5 days | 2 of the last 3 |
| Josh Smoker | 2 days | 2 of the last 3 |
The first thing that jumps out is that right now after this unexpected break, the team does not need an 8-man pen. Allegedly, Matt Reynolds has been summoned to New York and the logical move is to promote him and send Gilmartin down. The organizational philosophy is to shun the concept of a long man, one which Gilmartin would be an ideal fit. Even aside from my view that the org is completely wrong about this, it does no good to have Gilmartin on the roster when he’s only going to be used an inning – or less – at a time in the lowest leverage appearances when the hitters are playing a man down.
Hopefully, five days off for Salas has effectively pushed the reset button for him and he can go back to the guy we saw in his first seven outings, rather than the guy we’ve witnessed in the last three. Ideally, his first game back will not be in a high leverage spot. It would be great if the Mets had a big lead and Salas could pitch Wednesday with a four-run cushion. But even if that’s not possible, the Mets should have no problems finishing a game tonight without him.
You can come up with a team-wide “Joba Rules” for the pen all you want but it’s impossible to plan for a 16-inning game or a starter being knocked out before the fifth inning or four straight games being decided in the last frame. You have to have the ability to adapt on the fly. Having said that, it would be nice if the Mets would be less dogmatic about the following:
1. Familia must get every save humanly possible
2. Reed must pitch the eighth inning in any save situation
3. Blevins must have the platoon advantage with two of the first three batters unless there’s no other choice
4. Robles and Smoker should have the platoon advantage to a large degree
Would it be a tragedy for anyone if Familia got 90 percent of the saves rather than 98? He just doesn’t need to pitch a third straight day to get a 3-run save; it’s not the best use of resources. Reed is certainly capable of closing. And on that same principle, under normal circumstances, Blevins, Robles and Salas are capable of pitching the eighth inning. Sure, maybe you don’t use Blevins if he’d face Rendon-Werth-Wieters or either Robles or Salas if they’re in one of their funks. Those circumstances exist; however, they’re not the norm.
Hopefully, the days off and the return of Familia helps straighten out the pen from the problems it ran into most of April. However, no group acts independently from the others. The starters need to go longer and the offense needs to score more runs, too. Still, the bottom line is that this pen should feature four guys – Familia, Reed, Salas, Robles – that pitch at least 60 innings with above average results and Blevins figures to throw around 40 at a good rate, too.
Last year, the Dodgers’ pen threw the most innings (590.2), had the lowest ERA (3.35) and lowest WHIP (1.160) in the league. The Mets have the quality to compete for this particular triple crown. The Dodgers had seven relievers throw at least 40 IP and their best five combined for 316 IP, a 2.85 ERA and a 1.022 WHIP. So far this year, the five Mets relievers in the last graph have 41.1 IP, a 2.40 ERA and a 1.089 WHIP.
If the Mets are unable to produce a strong bullpen from this crew, then they really need to examine their organizational philosophies and their day-to-day maneuvers.
My observation is that every successful manager gets to the 7/8/9th inning an manages for Today….. Starters are Selectively Protected and bullpens are pretty much burned to the ground in almost every MLB stop—especially 6/7th setup guys—show me a “rubber Armed Reliever” and I’ll show you a guy who hasn’t been hurt ….Yet!!!
I’m not sure how this is changed….. i just don’t see Terry as “very different” from the balance of Managers.
I think part of what makes the situation worse for the Mets is the fact the pitching staff has kept them in almost every game while the offense won’t score enough runs to keep the trusted arms out of games. A 6-run lead should buy the starter a few extra batters and get Edgin, Robles and Smoker more work.
On 7 days rest Sean Gilmartin still couldn’t strike out half the pitchers in the league. He’s a perfect example of a player who never would have sniffed the majors if he threw with his other hand.