Through his first 15 games, Jose Reyes was awful. No one looks good when the hits aren’t falling in and Reyes looked even worse because he wasn’t walking a ton and had just two extra-base hits in 59 PA. It all added up to a .319 OPS and a player who fans were calling to be removed from the lineup – and in some cases removed from the team completely.
Terry Collins is regularly docked for his performance in the dugout. And rightfully so. But he made the correct move by getting Reyes out of the leadoff spot and for the most part has resisted the temptation to put him back in there, even now when his bat has heated up. Reyes has been first in the order only three times this month. Perhaps coincidentally, the Mets are 0-3 in those games.
While some want to make a big deal of where Reyes bats in the order, the bigger issue is his productivity. Since the awful start, Reyes has a .269/.337/.441 mark in his last 106 PA. Reyes has never been a big BABIP guy, especially considering his speed, and in this streak, he has just a .262 mark. It’s not that the hits are falling in but rather that he’s hitting for power, with nine hits going for extra bases, including three homers.
Reyes always had some pop in his bat and in his first tenure with the Mets he put up strong ISO marks. In his final season with the Mets in his first go-round, Reyes batted .337 and slugged .493, producing a .156 ISO. But from 2012-2015, his age 29-32 seasons, he had a combined .123 ISO. And the trajectory was poor, too. Starting in 2012, his yearly ISOs were: .146, .131, .111 and .104 – with the last three years coming while playing in good offensive parks in Toronto and Colorado.
Last year, Reyes not only reversed his ISO slide, he posted his best mark in the category since 2008, with a .176 mark. Even in his final 27 games, when he batted just .226, Reyes had a .157 ISO, thanks to 4 HR in 115 ABs.
The perception is that Reyes’ value to the club comes with his speed and his ability to make things happen once he’s on the basepaths. The reality is that his value comes from his ability to drive the ball for extra bases.
Sure, on this particular Mets’ club, Reyes is the team’s best basestealer. But with five steals in 41 games, it’s akin to being the tallest dwarf. And before you think that’s a product of him not getting on base at all in early April, know that Reyes has just two steals in 17 games here in May. The days of Reyes being a threat to steal 50 bases are gone and they’re not coming back.
So, can Reyes continue to drive the ball and produce solid slugging numbers?
One of the maddening things about Reyes throughout his career is his propensity to pop the ball up. His 18.0 percent rate last year was second on the club among those with at least 200 PA and his 18.4 mark this year is tops among those with at least 50 PA. Additionally, his 24.4 percent hard-hit rate is the lowest among the 13 players on the team with 50 trips to the plate. He’s hitting line drives at a solid 19.5 rate but that’s just middle of the pack for the team. Furthermore, he has just one barrel in 127 chances. Barrels are a stat which measures launch angle and exit velocity to determine the balls that produce the best results.
There’s pretty much nothing in Reyes’ profile that would get you excited about his ability to continue to produce power. There are a ton of popups, few balls that are hard hit and almost none where everything has come together perfectly.
Yet we’ve seen a .172 ISO in his last 106 PA.
Perhaps you’re not impressed with that. After all, Yoenis Cespedes has a .349 ISO and the NL average this year is a .166 mark. It may not be great but it’s what’s keeping Reyes as a useful player. It’s not his OBP, it’s not his SB numbers and it’s certainly not his defense at 3B.
If forced to wager, my money would not be on him continuing to produce at this clip. But as long as he is, the Mets should keep playing him. One of the great things about baseball is the ability of players to do things you’ve never seen before, or things that are unexpected. While Reyes’ ISO since he returned to New York has certainly been done before many, many times, few, if any, would have expected it from him at this point in his career. Enjoy it for however long it lasts.
One final thought here on Reyes. Everyone expects Amed Rosario to be the club’s shortstop next season, with the Mets picking up their option on Asdrubal Cabrera to be the team’s first choice to replace David Wright at third base, should he be unable to play. But if Reyes continues to produce good XBH numbers, he might be a cheaper option. The Mets would save $6.5 million by declining Cabrera’s option and if they could re-sign Reyes for less than that amount, it might be worth considering if he continues his current hitting.
I always thought Reyes would mature with more power, but he doesn’t have great natural mechanics.
He should be a good baserunner, even with the substantial loss of speed…he is no longer a base stealer, and i’d guess he’s also not up to the physical punishment of it.
He can still score from 1st on a double, go to third on a single, etc. Still a plus baserunner, especially compared to the slooooow team we’ve got.
But stolen bases? Not much anymore.
The problem when someone bunches all their hits or HRs rather than hit them evenly is that someone like can me can isolate that tiny hot stretch and then claim that it was a fluke.
Is this approach fair? Problably not, but it I guess you can say i prefer consistent hitting rather than extreme hot/cold stretches (as do most of us i think) and why you should wait for a player to have more PA to get a better estimation of what his actual talent is
First 20 games: .031 ISO
Next 5 games: .600 ISO (All 3 of his HRs were hit during this 5 game stretch)
Last 16 games: .071 ISO
Overall he has a .124 ISO
Jose has had a nice resurgence and presently is the starting shortstop with Cabrera on the DL. When Cabrera starts his rehab, maybe he should be playing 3B in Las Vegas. I am not anointing Reyes the starting shortstop job at all, instead I would be evaluating Cabrera as a potential 2018 third baseman. Four weeks from now, in mid June, Rosario should be called up.
There are arguments for any of the four competing third baseman, (Cabrera, Rivera, Reyes and Flores) to have the job but I would give Cabrera the first shot to start the process.
good idea, Sense!
There’s unsubstantiated talk of Cabrera being “resistant” to the move to 3B. He really has no experience there.
The Mets need him to get over it.
Rosario at SS after the Super 2 deadline passes.
Mets don’t have much in the way of youthful talent, but they need to infuse it where they can. It wasn’t long ago when the Mets signed Jay Bruce to effectively block Michael Conforto from being on the MLB roster. The plan was AAA . . . for the Mets best player.
I think Neil Walker is the guy in the way. But at his fairly outrageous salary, I’m not sure that any team in baseball would trade for him. Mets could easily fill that 2B spot.