The Mets got their first 2017 look at the Reds last night. The Reds are not very good; they were 21 games under .500 entering play last night. But the Reds are far from your typical bad team. Their pitching is atrocious but their offense is actually quite good. Yet as good as their offense is, it would be even better if they didn’t fall into the 1970s trap of batting the fast guy first.
Billy Hamilton had a good night last night with three hits. However, for the season he has a .298 on-base percentage. Yet the Reds bat him first because he’s in the running for the fastest man in the majors and he leads MLB in steals with 54. But the idea isn’t to maximize steals totals. Rather, you want to maximize the number of runs the team scores.
Hamilton is 26th in the majors with 79 runs scored. But that’s only part of the story. Most people have come to the realization that RBIs don’t tell the full story, that they’re dependent on guys getting on base in front of you. Seeing the raw total without knowing how many opportunities a player had is misleading, at best. It’s a similar situation with runs scored, too.
The next six batters after Hamilton all had slugging marks over .500 for the season. Four of those players had OPS marks over .800 and two had marks over .900 for the year. That’s outstanding production and a deep lineup. Compare that to the Padres, who entered last night 17 games under .500 or four games better than the Reds. Not a single player had a SLG over .500 and only one had an OPS over .800 – Jose Pirela, who checked in with an .838 mark.
If your leadoff hitter is only 26th in the majors in runs scored despite having six booming bats behind him in the lineup, there’s probably something wrong.
The most important factor for a leadoff hitter is to get on base. Now, it doesn’t necessarily mean that you have to bat the guy with the highest OBP first. It might make sense to bat that individual lower in the lineup, especially if you have another guy with a high mark to bat at the top of the order, instead. Take the Reds. Joey Votto leads the team with a .449 OBP but they have Zack Cozart with a .401 mark. You could easily justify batting Cozart first, wanting Votto’s higher ISO batting lower in the order.
We ding Terry Collins for his dugout moves on a regular basis. But there’s one strategic move that he did here in 2017 doesn’t get nearly the credit it deserves. After watching Jose Reyes and Curtis Granderson flounder atop the order, Collins moved Michael Conforto into the leadoff spot. After listening to Keith Hernandez tell everyone over and over again that Conforto was an ideal number-three hitter, large sections of the fan base were dismayed that the Mets were “wasting” Conforto in a non-RBI slot.
But unlike the Reds, the Mets didn’t have a better alternative. At the end of April, Conforto led the team with a .394 OBP. The only ones close to him in the category were Yoenis Cespedes (.373), Jay Bruce (.370) and Lucas Duda (.360). Everyone else was at .305 or lower.
Conforto led off just two times in the first 16 games of the season. When others were mostly occupying the top spot – and when everyone was healthy – the Mets scored 4.5 runs per game. In the month of May when Conforto was playing every day and batting leadoff the overwhelming majority of the time, the Mets scored 5.7 runs per game. And this was with Cespedes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Travis d’Arnaud and Duda all disabled for half the month or more.
Just like Cespedes didn’t make all of the difference down the stretch in 2015, installing Conforto into the leadoff spot isn’t responsible for all of the difference for the Mets’ offense from April to May. But anyone who doesn’t see a strong link – if not 100% of the improvement – of how the Mets’ offense improved significantly once they massively upgraded the OBP of the leadoff spot is being willfully ignorant.
Neither Conforton nor Hamilton have hit leadoff every games this season. In 317 PA out of the leadoff spot, Conforto scored 53 runs. Hamilton’s numbers are 565 and 79, respectively. Extrapolating Conforto’s numbers into Hamilton’s PA, he would have scored 96 runs. And that’s not taking into consideration that the Reds’ lineup behind Hamilton is more productive.
Conforto is done for the season so where he bats isn’t the issue right now. What is the issue is that the Mets used Reyes and his .293 OBP in the leadoff spot again last night.
Bill James once wrote that the first job of a manager is to ask (and answer), “What needs to change here?”
We can start with two quick ones: Reyes shouldn’t bat leadoff and Wilmer Flores shouldn’t play third base.
You failed to Mention that he was on base 4 times last night. And has reached base in 15 of his last 23 plate appearances. More importantly- who cares – these games against the reds especially are meaningless
Here are the facts about reyes the virus
1) after the Rockies aquired reyes in 2015 they got 20 games worse that same year.
2) the blue jays were under 500 with reyes in 2015 then they got rid of him and got 25 games better that same year.
3) 2007 and 2008 biggest collapses in history
4)2012 Marlins one of the biggest underachieving teams in MLB history 25 games under 500 with reyes
5)2013 blue jays were picked to finish with 90+ wins and win AL East instead they finished in last place with reyes.
6)2017 mets underachieving disaster
7)since reyes the virus arrived cespedes has gone downhill
Jose reyes is the rare person who is a virus that destroys every team he is on mentally ill bleaching his hair laughing non stop including when the team is losing. His unhealthy personality messes up everyone’s timing and makes guys lose urgency without them realizing it. Worst move in mets history bringing back that virus.
I care and if you don’t care why are you commenting?
And FWIW the Reyes numbers you quote are incorrect.
When a person concludes an argument that it doesn’t matter anyway, that’s a sure sign they sense that they’ve just lost the debate.
I mean, okay, nothing matters. Bat Flexen cleanup!
But if you still enjoy thinking about baseball:
Yes, Jose received 3 walks last night. A good game for our leadoff man.
For those interested in a slightly larger sample size, this is what he’s done over the past three seasons and 919 PAs against RHP:
2015: 366 PA, .309 OBP, .683 OPS
2016: 222 PA, .293 OBP, .664 OPS
2017: 331 PA, .284 OBP, .643 OPS
Yet this is the leadoff guy, pretty much every game he plays. It’s insane.
Since the start of 2015 the mets have played 170 games without Cespedes and their record is 80-90 in those 2 years yet in those same 2 years mets are 32 games over 500 with cespedes in the 185 games he has started. Meaning Cespedes is by far the only real player on the team
Since the start of 2016 the mets are 122-105 when Cabrera is in the lineup and 22-44 when he isn’t, which is far better rates than cespedes
Since the start of 2016 mets are 14 games under 500 with Cabrera when cespedes is not in the lineup good try though
More alternative facts i see..
The real facts-
When they both start: 98-80
When neither start : 16-26
When only Cespedes starts: 6-18
When only Cabrera starts: 24-25
Looks like you’re 0-2 today. Just like Cespedes is everyday.
On Reyes, I really think people — and certainly the Mets — have to deal with his splits.
He’s worthless against RHP. And those are the guys who pitch 80% of the time. Last I looked, his OPS in 2017 against RHP was like .635, with an OBP around .270. The splits are similar in 2016. This is an ongoing, late-career trend.
Against LHP, he’s still effective and a good leadoff guy.
While I agree with your point about Hamilton, I do value the steals. That is, not all OBP are created equal. A fast guy on second base is a lot more valuable than a slow guy on first base. When he does get on base, he gets himself into scoring position. There’s probably a stat for that where he leads the league: % of times on base he comes all the way around to score.
The guy who first made me realize that was Lance Johnson, who never walked enough, but had that one incredible season with the Mets.
Hamilton would be a good #9 hitter, if you had to have him in the lineup at all.
I should add: I think retaining Reyes next season — which I fully expect — would be a massive mistake. Needs to be given a gold watch and flushed from the system.
Can’t keep him just because it’s the easiest thing for Sandy to do.
Interesting article here(from a couple years ago but still applies)
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/3/25/8124365/leadoff-hitters-the-book-declining-production
Reyes as a lead off man is a mistake, he doesn’t have the OBA to jusitfy it. Reyes being forced into the lineup as an outfielder is a mistake because they should be evaluating any new player first. Reyes should not be in the plans for 2018 because there isn’t a spot on the roster for him and his low productivity. The fact that TC thinks that Reyes leading off and playing the outfield for future versatility is just another indication that TC should not be in the 2018 plans because he will keep playing veterans that are past their prime at the expense of younger players.
Hamilton is atrocious as a lead off hitter. We occasionally hear voices to trade for him. Not in a million years.
Reyes is also bad as a leadoff hitter. In part, Collins is hamstrung by the lack of talent in terms of balancing on-base and power. Im not in favor of Conforto leading off, but definitely happy seeing him bat second or third.
Maybe a new stat???? A Blend of Obp and stealing 2nd—“UnAssisted In Scoring Position”,,,?….Of course almost nothing is truly independent, statistically—This would be a stat that would recognize the % of time a guy was in scoring position directly out of an ab…or a hit plus stolen base—That’s a speed/power/obp combo—- Thats been the real question on batting Reyes #1 throughout his career…how often he puts himself in scoring position–additionally, the effect on pitches when guys following him see fastballs.
this is a better argument when we place him in his prime—not now
Since the Mets aren’t going anywhere this year anyone, might it not be worthwhile to try Amed Rosario in the leadoff role? I know his OBP is low, but perhaps batting first would entice him to be more selective. This is the time of year for experiments when you are out of the race. With Conforto out, I don’t see anyone else on the roster who would fit especially well at leadoff.
Playing Wilmer at third is better than sitting him on the bench. I think the guy will give you a 270-20- 70 line if he plays every day. 2B is the place. Reyes should be given a nice watch and sent on his way. I’m thinking Frazier is signed over the winter.
wow…todd frazier is Over Rated
Other than trying too hard to fit in, Reyes is not a problem.
Jose Reyes 2017:
April 3 – June 10, 220 plate appearances:
.182/.252/.293/.545
June 10 – August 29, 218 plate appearances:
.282/.346/.472/.817
What Is the complaining about again? The guy is versatile, athletic, and a great bench guy, without making waves about it. Perfect for backing up several positions and getting about 12 at bats a week.
Your point is well taken. There could be a spot on the roster for Jose as a bench player.