This is a project where 30 people got together to act as the GMs of the 30 MLB teams with the idea of conducting the offseason in one week. This is what happened in this simulation, not a prediction of what will happen in real life.
By Todd Gallagher
Ok, so first things is first. We´re over budget. Our salary was set at $95 million and we came in around $125 million. It wasn’t intentional, as the goal was after acquiring the needed pieces to dump salary via auctioning off pieces of the farm system. But oh well, here we are anyway.
Jerry can fire me if he won’t expand salary to the level of the Marlins for a winner.
———————————–
Innovation sometimes starts unwillingness to accept a premise. The premise in question was this: the White Sox are destined to lose this year.
The new premise is this: the White Sox absolutely, 100%, have to win the World Series this year and every year.
Different premise, eh?
Yes, the White Sox have one of the best farm systems in baseball. But having endured watching the Pirates and other low budget teams go through the cycle of sitting on prospect stashes only to squeeze a couple of good years out of it, waiting on the¨youth movement¨ wasn’t an option. As a low budget team, there are too many good front offices with too great of an understanding of advanced statistics to try to win by getting small edges anyone anymore.
Also, sitting on truckloads of prospects seems to pay diminishing returns over time. Too often teams end up operating like the Celtics have these last few years where they have so many assets that they start de-valuing them internally. This happens both due to that there are only so many internal resources available to grow this many prospects but also because time starts taking its toll. Injuries, players not always developing at the same time, position duplicates, the possibility of Michael Kopesh only seeming cool and not actually being good…the best move when in a position of having massive future assets is to go and turn them into the best ¨win now¨ players you can within your budget. And overpay in your prospects to get them if need be as long as you’re getting great stuff. Shock the Angels by what you´re willing to give them for Mike Trout. Because an empty farm system and minimal committed salary elsewhere and Mike Trout on the roster is a hell of a lot better than an uncertain and unstable future with an unknown timeline that is impossible to build around.
The need to win the World Series this year on one of the lowest budgets in baseball also means that the approach to winning will have to be different. We´re taking the premise of Whitey Herzog´s Cardinals.. speed, defense, and relief pitching and amping it up by putting the team in the most expansive park in major league history.
The fences have been pushed to the limit and raised them as high as they can go and then expanded foul territory to beyond Oaklands. We´re waiting to hear back from MLB for approval but it looks like right now the shortest porch is 450 feet down the line in left where a 30 foot high wall keeps every ball in the park.
Bear in mind the team we have playing in this park is by far the fastest in baseball and when we´re done with all of our moves will be the fastest in baseball history. This team will score a ton of runs in this ballpark, smashing the record for inside the park home runs, and will play amazing defense. And because I retained Rick Hahn as a special assistant he´s made sure the players we´ve acquired still are decent enough in a ¨normal¨ ballpark environment to keep us adequate enough on the road. Once his stat guys get a full assessment on the new park and players we need for it the remaining prospects…and there are quite a few top ones remaining…will be sold off to get us the exact pieces we need.
110 wins is the baseline. 75 wins is the expectation at home.
The Bill James 3 man rotation has been installed for the pitching staff. We´ve got the best bullpen in baseball and again, maybe in the history of baseball. AAA is being stocked with the Joe Blanton´s of the world who can come up and spot start and get us 4 innings when need be. A couple knuckleball pitchers will be added to the staff to chew up innings in the event we do end up down a significant amount of runs on the road. But even on the road if we get a lead with this defense and bullpen…
Maybe 120 wins should be the baseline.
| Table 1 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navarez, Omar | c | 550000 | |||
| Nunez, Eduardo | 1b/UTIL | 8000000 | |||
| Altuve, Jose | 2b/UTIL | 6000000 | |||
| Anderson, Tim | SS | 1000000 | |||
| Sanchez, Yolmer | 3b | 2100000 | |||
| Polanco , Gregory | LF | 4100000 | |||
| Maybin, Cameron | CF | 1000000 | |||
| Garcia, Leury | RF | 1100000 | |||
| Garcia, Avisail | DH | 6700000 | |||
| Garcia, WIlly | OF | 550000 | |||
| Davidson, Matt | 3b | 550000 | |||
| Brantley, Rob8 | C | 550000 | |||
| Delmonico, NIcky | UTIL | 550000 | |||
| Owings, Micah | DH/RP | 550000 | |||
| Morton, Charlie | SP | 7000000 | |||
| Giolito, Lucas | SP | 550000 | |||
| Kopesh, Michael | SP | 550000 | |||
| Reed, Addison | RP | 10000000 | |||
| Neshak, Pat | RP | 2000000 | |||
| McHugh, Collin | RP | 4800000 | |||
| Jones, Nate | RP | $3,950,000.00 | |||
| Giles, Ken | RP | 5000000 | |||
| Betances, Dellin | RP | 4400000 | |||
| Holland, Greg | RP | 5000000 | |||
| Davis, Wade | RP | 13000000 | |||
| Minor Leaguers with contracts against the cap | |||||
| Alburqurque, Al | 1,100,0000 | ||||
| Farquar, Danny | 1500000 | ||||
| Total | 92750000 | ||||
| EXCESS SALARY | |||||
| Shields, James | 10 | ||||
| Cain, Lorenzo | 21 |
I’ll have what he’s having.
I don’t have words yet to talk about this off season.
I applaud the attempt to try something completely different. I just can’t in any way, shape or form endorse going over the payroll limit. Especially since last year’s actual OD payroll was $97 million and from that was subtracted big contracts like Cabrera, Robertson, Frazier and Quintana.
If I was grading this, I’d give you an “F.” Let’s see what David gives you when he publishes his grades on Monday.
An ¨F¨ for going over budget is 100% reasonable. For the record, I was very aware and mindful of payroll but did take a huge risk in thinking I could dump salary on the weekend. It was a risk that I felt was worth taking because not installing some version of my system would have been a greater failure given the initial intention.
Also, I do have to re-iterate that this team easily wins the W.S. even subtracting Cain and Shields.
¨…not installing some version of my system would have been a greater failure given the initial intention.¨
Which would have been an F-
Dude, all that hardcore inspirational talk and you couldn’t get Trout? You expect to win 93% of your home games but couldn’t land the fish you personally brought up?
Where is the transaction wire for this team? Would love to see what was given up.
Altuve is our Trout, homie. Contact and speed guys are the fit for this ballpark. If I had more time and was going to customize it would be more for half-assed speedy players like Billy Hamilton. No reason to overpay for dongs in a park where they aren’t possible to be hit.
Gave up: Rodon, Moncada, Delmonico, Alex Collins, Kevan Smith, Jake Burger and Eloy Jimenez
Aquiredz: Altuve, Betances, Polanco, Dan Hudson (just realized I had him.)
Joe Abreu for Betances
Rodon and Kevan Smith for Collin McHugh and Ken Giles
Moncada, Delmonico, and Collins for Altuve and Morton
Jake Burger and Eloy Jimenez for Polanco and Dan Hudson
FA;
Ed Nunez
Addison Reed
G. Holland
Lorenzo Cain
Wade Davis
Pat Neshak
If more time allowed and getting Rick Hahn and his computer as my assistant this team would be put together with concepts of ¨fair value¨more in place. But getting the gist on paper is the first step and it still would win the WS.
The trades were awesome. You got a little more on each one than you gave up.
I understand that the project has rules, but since they were just at $122…
Otherwise, I would give you an A. If you got Trout too, it’s A++ and a raise.
It’s interesting because the trades made were really good. Once Betances, Giles and Reed were acquired, Davis, Holland and Neshek were just redundant. On top of that, after all those deals, the team could have used the Cain money on a legit starter. That would have kept the team within budget and competitive.
But hey, that’s the fun of the GM Project
Scott: it´s interesting to hear you say that because the trades and amount that was paid on players was the part that I was least certain of. My command of player values is weak so to see that it was at least within reason is promising.
Given the three man rotation I do no think the bullpen is redundant although I also see the point. The Cain money could have been spent on a good starter. Orrrr…and I think this is an interesting question…is it better to spend 25 million on a good starter like Darvish….or..is it more effective to build a bullpen based pitching staff and break the 25 million up into Davis, Holland, Neshak, and Giles.
My vote is that the relievers are more bang for the buck at this point. 5 years from now it may flip the other way. But the people that are the least valued right now, as I see it, are the RPs who can throw 120 innings at a sub 3.50 ERA. So you´re not paying starter value or closer money but you´re getting a lot of bridge innings for not major dollars. A ¨starter¨ who can throw 5 innings at a 3.50 ERA and a bridge guy who can pick up another 3 at 3.50 are more valuable than an elite starter in my opinion. More flexibility, less overall money spent, and more deadly in the postseason. By the way, I have to add that most of these RPs stink as pitchers and that mid level starters can replicate their numbers pretty easy. Brad Penny cranked 100 for the entire first inning of the all star game and Tommy Hunter even looked like a world beater when moved to the pen. Wade Davis as well. Turning bad starters into RPs is a good focal point for teams also.
WHOA!!!1
texasGCC, Scott, Brian. anyone: If you don’t mind commenting on it, what´s the weakest of the trades from a value perspective? Is it Abreu for Betances? That was sort of my hunch where I could have gotten more.
also, is there any way to simulate my concept for a stadium of that size? I’m working on a larger evaluation of what we´ve done here and want to try to get a sense of if this theory is within range of working.
It’s normal after making a transaction of any sort, to wonder if you could have done better. However, be happy if you’re content with it because the other person is always trying to do their best also. I would say you did well on all your deals, and getting a lights out reliever like Betances should have been gratifying. Abreu is a first baseman and aging, who came off a year that may be hard to duplicate, but the Yankees had a need and a plethora of relievers. While Betances has been a bit of a headache in the Bronx, only in Metsville are players’ personality higher regarded than their skill. In the real baseball world, teams don’t give away talent.