If nothing else, hopefully having the team’s top minor league affiliate in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League the past several years has taught individuals the need for context. An .800 OPS in the International League is a different beast than the same mark in the PCL.
Perhaps nowhere is context needed more than with the amateur draft. If I told you that Team A delivered 10 guys to the majors in the past five years, would you consider that good? Hopefully you would throw your hands up in the air and ask for some context. What have other teams done in that same span? How good were the 10 guys? Did the 10 guys make their mark with the team that drafted them or another club? Were guys who never made an impact traded away for guys who did? All these and other ideas are important things to consider when judging a farm system.
Over the next two weeks or so, we’re going to try and deliver some context. Of course, there are many challenges in doing this. Perhaps the most obvious is that it takes time for prospects to make their way through the farm system. It’s impossible to rate accurately the 2017 Draft today. Shoot, we can’t even accurately rate the 2011 Draft yet.
But while we can’t rate a recent particular draft, we should strive to see what would make for a good draft. If you have five picks in the top 100 and three of them make the majors – is that good? If you have the 17th pick in the draft and your guy turns in a 10-bWAR career, is that good? If they guy selected right after you pick turns into a star, does that mean your draft is a failure? These are things to keep in mind over the next couple of weeks, as we unveil results one draft at a time.
We’re going to start looking at the 2000 Draft because it’s a nice round number and it has the advantage of being recent enough to be at least somewhat relevant and far enough away that everyone who was drafted that year who is going to make the majors has already done so. We’re going to display two charts. The first one is going to list the top 100 guys who were picked in the order they were picked. And the second is going to re-order the players into their (to-date) lifetime bWAR.
| OvPck | Team | Signed | Name | WAR | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marlins | Y | Adrian Gonzalez | 42.7 | HS |
| 2 | Twins | Y | Adam Johnson | -1.1 | 4Yr |
| 3 | Cubs | Y | Luis Montanez | -1.2 | HS |
| 4 | Royals | Y | Mike Stodolka | HS | |
| 5 | Expos | Y | Justin Wayne | -1.5 | 4Yr |
| 6 | Devil Rays | Y | Rocco Baldelli | 10.2 | HS |
| 7 | Rockies | N | Matt Harrington | HS | |
| 8 | Tigers | Y | Matt Wheatland | HS | |
| 9 | Padres | Y | Mark Phillips | HS | |
| 10 | Angels | Y | Joe Torres | HS | |
| 11 | Brewers | Y | Dave Krynzel | 0.2 | HS |
| 12 | White Sox | Y | Joe Borchard | -1.5 | 4Yr |
| 13 | Cardinals | Y | Shaun Boyd | HS | |
| 14 | Orioles | Y | Beau Hale | 4Yr | |
| 15 | Phillies | Y | Chase Utley | 65.4 | 4Yr |
| 16 | Mets via Mariners | Y | *Billy Traber | -0.7 | 4Yr |
| 17 | Dodgers | Y | Ben Diggins | -0.7 | 4Yr |
| 18 | Blue Jays | Y | Miguel Negron | HS | |
| 19 | Pirates | Y | Sean Burnett | 6.1 | HS |
| 20 | Angels via Athletics | Y | *Chris Bootcheck | -1.5 | 4Yr |
| 21 | Giants | Y | Boof Bonser | -0.5 | HS |
| 22 | Red Sox | Y | Phil Dumatrait | -1.8 | JC |
| 23 | Reds | Y | David Espinosa | HS | |
| 24 | Cardinals via Rangers | Y | *Blake Williams | 4Yr | |
| 25 | Rangers via Mets | Y | *Scott Heard | HS | |
| 26 | Indians | Y | Corey Smith | HS | |
| 27 | Astros | Y | Rob Stiehl | JC | |
| 28 | Yankees | Y | Dave Parrish | 4Yr | |
| 29 | Braves via Diamondbacks | Y | *Adam Wainwright | 39.3 | HS |
| 30 | Braves | Y | Scott Thorman | -1 | HS |
| 31 | Twins | N | *Aaron Heilman | 1.8 | 4Yr |
| 32 | Orioles | Y | *Tripper Johnson | HS | |
| 33 | Blue Jays | Y | *Dustin McGowan | 1.8 | HS |
| 34 | Reds | Y | *Dustin Moseley | 0.5 | HS |
| 35 | Rangers | N | *Tyrell Godwin | -0.1 | 4Yr |
| 36 | Mets | Y | *Bobby Keppel | 0.3 | HS |
| 37 | Indians | Y | *Derek Thompson | 0.2 | HS |
| 38 | Braves | Y | *Kelly Johnson | 17.8 | HS |
| 39 | Rangers | Y | *Chad Hawkins | 4Yr | |
| 40 | Braves | Y | *Aaron Herr | HS | |
| 41 | Marlins | Y | Jason Stokes | HS | |
| 42 | Twins | Y | Tagg Bozied | 4Yr | |
| 43 | Cubs | Y | Bobby Hill | 0.3 | |
| 44 | Royals | Y | Mike Tonis | -0.1 | 4Yr |
| 45 | Blue Jays via Expos | Y | *Peter Bauer | 4Yr | |
| 46 | Reds via Devil Rays | Y | *Dane Sardinha | -1 | 4Yr |
| 47 | Rockies | Y | Jason Young | -1 | 4Yr |
| 48 | Tigers | Y | Chad Petty | HS | |
| 49 | Padres | Y | Xavier Nady | 3.8 | 4Yr |
| 50 | Angels | Y | Jared Abruzzo | HS | |
| 51 | Braves via Brewers | Y | *Bubba Nelson | HS | |
| 52 | White Sox | Y | Tim Hummel | -1.3 | 4Yr |
| 53 | Cardinals | Y | Chris Narveson | 0.6 | HS |
| 54 | Twins via Orioles | Y | *J.D. Durbin | -0.5 | HS |
| 55 | Indians via Phillies | Y | *Brian Tallet | 0.3 | 4Yr |
| 56 | Rangers via Mariners | Y | *Jason Bourgeois | 0 | HS |
| 57 | Dodgers | Y | Joel Hanrahan | 4.7 | HS |
| 58 | Blue Jays | Y | Dominic Rich | 4Yr | |
| 59 | Pirates | Y | David Beigh | HS | |
| 60 | Athletics | Y | Freddie Bynum | -1.3 | JC |
| 61 | Giants | Y | Lance Niekro | 0.4 | 4Yr |
| 62 | Red Sox | Y | Manny Delcarmen | 3.9 | HS |
| 63 | Reds | Y | Ryan Snare | -0.2 | 4Yr |
| 64 | Rangers | Y | Randy Truselo | HS | |
| 65 | Mets | Y | Matt Peterson | HS | |
| 66 | Indians | Y | Mark Folsom | HS | |
| 67 | Astros | Y | Chad Qualls | 6.3 | 4Yr |
| 68 | Yankees | Y | Danny Borrell | 4Yr | |
| 69 | Diamondbacks | Y | Mike Schultz | 0 | 4Yr |
| 70 | Braves | Y | Bryan Digby | HS | |
| 71 | Marlins | Y | Rob Henkel | 4Yr | |
| 72 | Twins | Y | Colby Miller | HS | |
| 73 | Cubs | Y | Aaron Krawiec | 4Yr | |
| 74 | Royals | Y | Scott Walter | 4Yr | |
| 75 | Expos | Y | Grady Sizemore | 27.2 | HS |
| 76 | Cubs via Devil Rays | Y | *Nic Jackson | 4Yr | |
| 77 | Rockies | Y | Chris Buglovsky | 4Yr | |
| 78 | Tigers | Y | Nook Logan | 3 | JC |
| 79 | Padres | Y | Omar Falcon | HS | |
| 80 | Angels | Y | Tommy Murphy | 0.4 | 4Yr |
| 81 | Brewers | Y | Dane Artman | HS | |
| 82 | White Sox | Y | Mike Morse | 4 | HS |
| 83 | Cardinals | Y | Chase Voshell | 4Yr | |
| 84 | Orioles | Y | Richard Bartlett | HS | |
| 85 | Phillies | Y | Keith Bucktrot | HS | |
| 86 | Orioles via Mariners | Y | *Tommy Arko | HS | |
| 87 | Dodgers | Y | Jeff Tibbs | HS | |
| 88 | Blue Jays | Y | Morrin Davis | HS | |
| 89 | Pirates | Y | Chris Young | 17.6 | 4Yr |
| 90 | Athletics | Y | Daylan Holt | 4Yr | |
| 91 | Giants | Y | Brion Treadway | 4Yr | |
| 92 | Red Sox | Y | Matt Cooper | HS | |
| 93 | Reds | Y | Dave Gil | 4Yr | |
| 94 | Rangers | Y | Chris Russ | 4Yr | |
| 95 | Mets | Y | Josh Reynolds | 4Yr | |
| 96 | Indians | Y | Sean Swedlow | HS | |
| 97 | Astros | Y | Tony Pluta | HS | |
| 98 | Yankees | Y | Jason Grove | 4Yr | |
| 99 | Diamondbacks | Y | Bill White | -0.4 | 4Yr |
| 100 | Braves | Y | Blaine Boyer | 0.3 | HS |
The Marlins had the first pick in the draft and selected Gonzalez, who went on to amass 42.7 bWAR. It’s hard to argue with this pick, especially when you see that three of the next four guys put up a negative bWAR in the majors and the fourth guy didn’t even make the big leagues. He didn’t post the most bWAR from this draft but from a pure talent POV, this seems to be a pretty good pick. Of course, Gonzalez took a little while to get untracked and never played a game in the majors with the Marlins.
He was dealt to the Rangers for Ugueth Urbina, who went 1-0 with 4 Saves in the postseason for the Marlins in 2003 before leaving as a free agent. While some will argue that flags fly forever, others will suggest that the Marlins didn’t get enough return for Gonzalez. Perhaps both sides have a point but ultimately, just on the merits of the draft pick, it was a solid choice.
For our first draft examined, it’s hard to look at the 2000 Draft and feel like it went particularly well for most teams. There were a lot of high misses and even guys who made the majors didn’t contribute much. As for the Mets, they had four picks in the top 100 and didn’t distinguish themselves. Two of them never reached the majors, one did but put up a negative bWAR and the highlight was reliever Bobby Keppel, who amassed a 0.3 lifetime bWAR.
Now let’s look at the picks in descending bWAR order:
| Overall | bWAR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Phillies | Y | Chase Utley | 65.4 | 4Yr |
| 1 | Marlins | Y | Adrian Gonzalez | 42.7 | HS |
| 29 | Braves via Diamondbacks | Y | *Adam Wainwright | 39.3 | HS |
| 75 | Expos | Y | Grady Sizemore | 27.2 | HS |
| 38 | Braves | Y | *Kelly Johnson | 17.8 | HS |
| 89 | Pirates | Y | Chris Young | 17.6 | 4Yr |
| 6 | Devil Rays | Y | Rocco Baldelli | 10.2 | HS |
| 67 | Astros | Y | Chad Qualls | 6.3 | 4Yr |
| 19 | Pirates | Y | Sean Burnett | 6.1 | HS |
| 57 | Dodgers | Y | Joel Hanrahan | 4.7 | HS |
| 82 | White Sox | Y | Mike Morse | 4 | HS |
| 62 | Red Sox | Y | Manny Delcarmen | 3.9 | HS |
| 49 | Padres | Y | Xavier Nady | 3.8 | 4Yr |
| 78 | Tigers | Y | Nook Logan | 3 | JC |
| 31 | Twins | N | *Aaron Heilman | 1.8 | 4Yr |
| 33 | Blue Jays | Y | *Dustin McGowan | 1.8 | HS |
| 53 | Cardinals | Y | Chris Narveson | 0.6 | HS |
| 34 | Reds | Y | *Dustin Moseley | 0.5 | HS |
| 61 | Giants | Y | Lance Niekro | 0.4 | 4Yr |
| 80 | Angels | Y | Tommy Murphy | 0.4 | 4Yr |
| 36 | Mets | Y | *Bobby Keppel | 0.3 | HS |
| 43 | Cubs | Y | Bobby Hill | 0.3 | |
| 55 | Indians via Phillies | Y | *Brian Tallet | 0.3 | 4Yr |
| 100 | Braves | Y | Blaine Boyer | 0.3 | HS |
| 11 | Brewers | Y | Dave Krynzel | 0.2 | HS |
| 37 | Indians | Y | *Derek Thompson | 0.2 | HS |
| 56 | Rangers via Mariners | Y | *Jason Bourgeois | 0 | HS |
| 69 | Diamondbacks | Y | Mike Schultz | 0 | 4Yr |
| 35 | Rangers | N | *Tyrell Godwin | -0.1 | 4Yr |
| 44 | Royals | Y | Mike Tonis | -0.1 | 4Yr |
| 63 | Reds | Y | Ryan Snare | -0.2 | 4Yr |
| 99 | Diamondbacks | Y | Bill White | -0.4 | 4Yr |
| 21 | Giants | Y | Boof Bonser | -0.5 | HS |
| 54 | Twins via Orioles | Y | *J.D. Durbin | -0.5 | HS |
| 16 | Mets via Mariners | Y | *Billy Traber | -0.7 | 4Yr |
| 17 | Dodgers | Y | Ben Diggins | -0.7 | 4Yr |
| 30 | Braves | Y | Scott Thorman | -1 | HS |
| 46 | Reds via Devil Rays | Y | *Dane Sardinha | -1 | 4Yr |
| 47 | Rockies | Y | Jason Young | -1 | 4Yr |
| 2 | Twins | Y | Adam Johnson | -1.1 | 4Yr |
| 3 | Cubs | Y | Luis Montanez | -1.2 | HS |
| 52 | White Sox | Y | Tim Hummel | -1.3 | 4Yr |
| 60 | Athletics | Y | Freddie Bynum | -1.3 | JC |
| 5 | Expos | Y | Justin Wayne | -1.5 | 4Yr |
| 12 | White Sox | Y | Joe Borchard | -1.5 | 4Yr |
| 20 | Angels via Athletics | Y | *Chris Bootcheck | -1.5 | 4Yr |
| 22 | Red Sox | Y | Phil Dumatrait | -1.8 | JC |
| 4 | Royals | Y | Mike Stodolka | HS | |
| 7 | Rockies | N | Matt Harrington | HS | |
| 8 | Tigers | Y | Matt Wheatland | HS | |
| 9 | Padres | Y | Mark Phillips | HS | |
| 10 | Angels | Y | Joe Torres | HS | |
| 13 | Cardinals | Y | Shaun Boyd | HS | |
| 14 | Orioles | Y | Beau Hale | 4Yr | |
| 18 | Blue Jays | Y | Miguel Negron | HS | |
| 23 | Reds | Y | David Espinosa | HS | |
| 24 | Cardinals via Rangers | Y | *Blake Williams | 4Yr | |
| 25 | Rangers via Mets | Y | *Scott Heard | HS | |
| 26 | Indians | Y | Corey Smith | HS | |
| 27 | Astros | Y | Rob Stiehl | JC | |
| 28 | Yankees | Y | Dave Parrish | 4Yr | |
| 32 | Orioles | Y | *Tripper Johnson | HS | |
| 39 | Rangers | Y | *Chad Hawkins | 4Yr | |
| 40 | Braves | Y | *Aaron Herr | HS | |
| 41 | Marlins | Y | Jason Stokes | HS | |
| 42 | Twins | Y | Tagg Bozied | 4Yr | |
| 45 | Blue Jays via Expos | Y | *Peter Bauer | 4Yr | |
| 48 | Tigers | Y | Chad Petty | HS | |
| 50 | Angels | Y | Jared Abruzzo | HS | |
| 51 | Braves via Brewers | Y | *Bubba Nelson | HS | |
| 58 | Blue Jays | Y | Dominic Rich | 4Yr | |
| 59 | Pirates | Y | David Beigh | HS | |
| 64 | Rangers | Y | Randy Truselo | HS | |
| 65 | Mets | Y | Matt Peterson | HS | |
| 66 | Indians | Y | Mark Folsom | HS | |
| 68 | Yankees | Y | Danny Borrell | 4Yr | |
| 70 | Braves | Y | Bryan Digby | HS | |
| 71 | Marlins | Y | Rob Henkel | 4Yr | |
| 72 | Twins | Y | Colby Miller | HS | |
| 73 | Cubs | Y | Aaron Krawiec | 4Yr | |
| 74 | Royals | Y | Scott Walter | 4Yr | |
| 76 | Cubs via Devil Rays | Y | *Nic Jackson | 4Yr | |
| 77 | Rockies | Y | Chris Buglovsky | 4Yr | |
| 79 | Padres | Y | Omar Falcon | HS | |
| 81 | Brewers | Y | Dane Artman | HS | |
| 83 | Cardinals | Y | Chase Voshell | 4Yr | |
| 84 | Orioles | Y | Richard Bartlett | HS | |
| 85 | Phillies | Y | Keith Bucktrot | HS | |
| 86 | Orioles via Mariners | Y | *Tommy Arko | HS | |
| 87 | Dodgers | Y | Jeff Tibbs | HS | |
| 88 | Blue Jays | Y | Morrin Davis | HS | |
| 90 | Athletics | Y | Daylan Holt | 4Yr | |
| 91 | Giants | Y | Brion Treadway | 4Yr | |
| 92 | Red Sox | Y | Matt Cooper | HS | |
| 93 | Reds | Y | Dave Gil | 4Yr | |
| 94 | Rangers | Y | Chris Russ | 4Yr | |
| 95 | Mets | Y | Josh Reynolds | 4Yr | |
| 96 | Indians | Y | Sean Swedlow | HS | |
| 97 | Astros | Y | Tony Pluta | HS | |
| 98 | Yankees | Y | Jason Grove | 4Yr |
Only seven players from the top 100 posted a double-digit bWAR and only 47 even reached the majors for one game. And that includes two guys (Heilman, Godwin) who did not sign with the team that drafted them in 2000.
So, there is our initial look at the draft. On first blush it doesn’t appear to be a stellar class. Let’s see if we feel the same way in a couple of weeks after we’ve had the chance to examine more years.