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The Jay Bruce signing seems to me to be a strong value, if we look at it in a vacuum. If over the three years of the deal he’s able to contribute two seasons at close to levels of last season, it will be a win for the Mets. But there are at least two other things to consider. The first is if other teams are undervaluing power, did the Mets pay more than they had to in order to reel Bruce in? And the second is, even if this is a good deal from a production and market points of view – was it the right action for the 2018 Mets? Would that money have been better spent elsewhere?
It’s impossible to answer that right now, especially with not knowing if the team has plans to add a starting infielder before the season starts. But even if they do, and they make a good acquisition there, no doubt people will insist that the club should have signed a center fielder instead, with Lorenzo Cain atop most people’s wish lists.
It will be interesting to see how the total production of Conforto-Bruce compares to what a Cain-Conforto combo might have produced. Of course, we’ll have to imagine what Conforto’s defensive numbers in RF will be. And we’ll also have to assume that Cain would have performed as well for the Mets as he does with wherever he winds up in reality. And we also have to factor in the (assumed) higher salary level of Cain, too.
Among the possibilities is that it’s not a straight up comparison but that the Bruce side will have, say, a 2B or 3B that they wouldn’t have been able to add if they paid more to land Cain.
Let’s close with a poll question on your feelings about the Bruce acquisition.
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Is Bruce a quality player? Yes.
Did the Mets get a fair price? Yes.
Am I unhappy with getting him? No.
Was he the ideal acquisition? No.
Will I be unhappy if their offseason spending ends here? Oh yes, big time.
speaking of fishing for Negativity…. what’s This about Jay Bruce and Hate????? When did He get hated on?
Wayback Machine: https://mets360.com/?p=31447
A fair question.
Over at Baseball Think Factory, two posters made comments about the Mets’ fanbase hating Bruce. That didn’t make sense to me, at least here in 2018, so I thought I would throw it out there as an option and see what others thought.
I don’t think the Mets could afford Cain in the long run and went with plan “B” in case Smith falters early to have Bruce playing first base as well. Is the contract back loaded? For now i’ll take it as a step in the right direction. But as David G. has posted i’d be unhappy as well if that’s all they plan to do this off season.
In what I’m sure makes sense in some way I’m not aware of, Bruce gets a $3 million signing bonus, $10 million in ’18 and $13 million in ’19 and ’20.
My guess is the signing bonus gets paid to the player right away. But perhaps there’s an accounting reason to call it a bonus.
From Amazin Avenue:
“The contract pays him a bit less in 2018—$10 million—before going up to $13 million per year. The other $3 million will be paid as a bonus, half of which this year and the other half next.”
Maybe the cash flow was structured for Bruce to pay his agent fees? Alderson trying to save every penny? Accounting reason? Seems weird to make it more complicated just to defer $1.5 million for a year.
Interestingly, my sources tell me that the signing bonus will be paid $1.5 million in 2019 and $1.5 million in 2020, but Cot’s shows it as spread evenly, $1 million in each of the 3 years.
That may be Cot’s default position for all signing bonuses.
He’s a solid guy both in the field and in the club house. I hope they add Frazier and a guy like Kendrick. If they add those two, when Conforto returns (my bet is July 1), they will have a nice lineup.
Conforto
Kendrick/Cabrera
Cespedes
Bruce
Frazier
Smith
d’Arnaud
Rosario
P
Why so pessimistic on the return date for Conforto? All of the news has been positive about his recovery.
I would set the Over/Under at May 1 and would take the under, as I expect to see him in April.
Bruce is an ok guy….and at 13/per he can be off-loaded without much if anything of payroll impact. He’s not much for prospect bait.
I’ve always liked the Guy…early on in his career he looked like a linchpin guy. I always thought of him as an 830-860 guy…maybe he’ll stick at that range. They need it! He’s been Fed 600 plus plate appearances in the middle of MLB batting Orders…even at a 780-800 OPS, that gets you 80-90 Ribbies. So…he gives you a bit more. Maybe some positional versatility. Good Citizen. Hits some Jacks.
Maybe he lifts it a bit…tough to project that after so much time.
Bruce is a pro, and his addition makes the team better as of now. I do have concerns going forward about shoe-horning Conforto into CF, and the overall construction of the position players with regard to defense.
For now, I will go with Brian’s late 2017 advice and see the cup as half-full, with Alderson overseeing a work in process that will come more into shape by opening day.
The Mets wish list was for an offensive OF/1B and Bruce was the best free agent available fitting that description. Their next target should be an infielder, preferably a second baseman.
Metsense why not a third baseman? Wouldn’t Cabrera be better suited as a second baseman? Who would be starting at 3rd base then? Wright?
Im with you Pete. I think Cabrera is better at 2B than 3B.
In a small sample size Cabrera has much better defensive analytics at third base then second base. He is a DRS plus one at third base and a negative 6 at second base. In either case they need another infielder.
Yeah, its just the arm, age, speed, etc are all working against Cabrera at 3B now.
That’s true, but small samples can be deceiving. His UZR/150 at 2B is -1.7 while at 3B it is -14.1, which would indicate that he is much worse at 3rd.
Unfortunately, he is a negative at both positions. I guess Alderson feels his bat makes up for it, and he won’t do too much damage at 3rd.
Cabrera is a better 2B than 3B. Problem is the baseball people have determined that there is more value to tightening up our defense up the middle. I guess they think the 2nd baseman’s glove is more important than the 3rd baseman’s. If many more hits go up the middle, their logic makes sense, since a good glove at 2B will save more runs than a poor one at 3B will allow.
I live in the Cincinnati area but have been a Met fan for 50 years (former NJ resident) The Red’s fans were pretty upset when the Mets traded for Bruce. He’s a classy guy (ak Paul O’neil) and he is a great team guy. I like the move – I’ll like the outlook for 2018 better if the Mets acquire a 3B (either Frazier of Moustakas). I think we’ll be competitive…….
Solid deal according to the team’s needs, but preferred Cain. Now, sign Kendrick to get another productive leader. I’ve mentioned Kendrick since August and mentioned how these young pitchers don’t have a veteran to come over and calm them down when they are under stress, ala Carter, Hernandez, Knight. I use those three names because some of us may remember how often they were to do that, but it certainly helped a less than stellar pitching staff win a World Series.
Nowadays, players like Y. Molina, Pedroia, even young ones like Correa and Altuve are great leaders and will do that. Unfortunately, I didn’t see that with the 2017 Mets infielders and although Flores will do it, he’s a part timer. I hope Plawecki gets more starts because he is a way better field general than TDA.
I am all for the Frazier signing. I do believe they wound up overpaying, but I don’t think they had any way of knowing what the Giant’s offer was. And at 3/$39 he is well worth it.
Cain would have been a better fit, but he would likely have cost a lot more, locking up too much payroll and inhibiting Sandy from filling other holes with quality players. And then, there is that #6 pick in the 2nd round. (btw, Brian, in doing your Cain-Conforto/Conforto-Bruce comparison, you need to factor whoever the Mets select with that pick into the equation.) and I don’t think that Cain would have provided the leadership and mentoring we will get from Bruce. So, all in all, Bruce was the right guy. Did you see d’Arnaud’s reaction to bringing Bruce back? And we all know that he took Conforto under his wing.
Now, going forward, we must address the infield. I am square in the Todd Frazier camp. While we could use a player who could lead off, I don’t see anyone on the FA market that fills that role adequately. (Please don’t talk to me about Eduardo Nunez. His glove is a major detraction.) So adding Frazier’s bat in the middle of the lineup and his glove at 3B and his positivity in the clubhouse, could give us even more than the 3.0 WAR he was good for last year.
I am not a big Bruce fan, but I am ok with them bringing him back. He fills a need. They still need more work.
I like the Bruce deal. He’s a pro’s pro, has power and may be underestimated in the field. The catch is, you can’t just leave it at this. Ideally, they need to bolster the rotation and bullpen before Opening Day.
I know that it is a pipe dream, but I would like to see the Mets make two moves. Sign Lance Lynn and trade for JT Realmuto. Those two moves would make us a true contender.
Well the Marlins are looking to dump payroll so maybe not that impossible. The question is what do the Mets have in their farm system that would make this trade work? As for Lance Lynn I don’t think there’s enough room in their budget unless they trade Ramos and or Lagares. Lastly you would still need one more infielder.