After a relatively poor draft in 2003, the top 100 of 2004 showed up to restore our faith in both the talent of U.S. amateurs and the ability of organizations to identify that talent. All told, 27 of the first 30 picks made the majors, with 22 of those 27 providing positive bWAR values. There was also great value to be had in the second and third rounds, too. To date, two players have put up near Hall of Fame numbers in Justin Verlander and Dustin Pedroia.
Here’s the chronological order of the top 100 picks from 2004. All WAR values stated in this piece are from Baseball-Reference:
| OvPck | Tm | Signed | Name | WAR | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Padres | Y | Matt Bush | 2.3 | HS |
| 2 | Tigers | Y | Justin Verlander | 56.6 | 4Yr |
| 3 | Mets | Y | Philip Humber | 0.9 | 4Yr |
| 4 | Devil Rays | Y | Jeff Niemann | 4.1 | 4Yr |
| 5 | Brewers | Y | Mark Rogers | 1.1 | HS |
| 6 | Indians | Y | Jeremy Sowers | 1.6 | 4Yr |
| 7 | Reds | Y | Homer Bailey | 6.2 | HS |
| 8 | Orioles | N | Wade Townsend | 4Yr | |
| 9 | Rockies | Y | Chris Nelson | -2.4 | HS |
| 10 | Rangers | Y | Thomas Diamond | -0.4 | 4Yr |
| 11 | Pirates | Y | Neil Walker | 20.4 | HS |
| 12 | Angels | Y | Jered Weaver | 34.6 | 4Yr |
| 13 | Expos | Y | Bill Bray | 2.5 | 4Yr |
| 14 | Royals | Y | Billy Butler | 11.5 | HS |
| 15 | Diamondbacks | Y | Stephen Drew | 17.2 | 4Yr |
| 16 | Blue Jays | Y | David Purcey | 0.1 | 4Yr |
| 17 | Dodgers | Y | Scott Elbert | 1.5 | HS |
| 18 | White Sox | Y | Josh Fields | -1.1 | 4Yr |
| 19 | Cardinals | Y | Chris Lambert | -0.8 | 4Yr |
| 20 | Twins | Y | Trevor Plouffe | 7.7 | HS |
| 21 | Phillies | Y | Greg Golson | -0.5 | HS |
| 22 | Twins via Mariners | Y | *Glen Perkins | 8.7 | 4Yr |
| 23 | Yankees via Astros | Y | *Phil Hughes | 11.6 | HS |
| 24 | Athletics via Red Sox | Y | *Landon Powell | 0.2 | 4Yr |
| 25 | Twins via Cubs | Y | *Kyle Waldrop | 0.5 | HS |
| 26 | Athletics | Y | Richie Robnett | 4Yr | |
| 27 | Marlins | Y | Taylor Tankersley | 0.7 | 4Yr |
| 28 | Dodgers via Yankees | Y | *Blake DeWitt | 1.9 | HS |
| 29 | Royals via Giants | Y | *Matt Campbell | 4Yr | |
| 30 | Rangers via Braves | Y | *Eric Hurley | 0.1 | HS |
| 31 | Royals | Y | *J.P. Howell | 8 | 4Yr |
| 32 | Blue Jays | Y | *Zach Jackson | -0.8 | 4Yr |
| 33 | Dodgers | Y | *Justin Orenduff | 4Yr | |
| 34 | White Sox | Y | *Tyler Lumsden | 4Yr | |
| 35 | Twins | Y | *Matt Fox | 0 | 4Yr |
| 36 | Athletics | Y | *Danny Putnam | -0.2 | 4Yr |
| 37 | Yankees | Y | *Jon Poterson | HS | |
| 38 | White Sox | Y | *Gio Gonzalez | 26.1 | HS |
| 39 | Twins | Y | *Jay Rainville | HS | |
| 40 | Athletics | Y | *Huston Street | 14.4 | 4Yr |
| 41 | Yankees | Y | *Jeff Marquez | 0 | JC |
| 42 | Yankees via Padres | Y | *Brett Smith | 4Yr | |
| 43 | Tigers | Y | Eric Beattie | 4Yr | |
| 44 | Mets | Y | Matt Durkin | 4Yr | |
| 45 | Devil Rays | Y | Reid Brignac | -0.5 | HS |
| 46 | Brewers | Y | Yovani Gallardo | 23.3 | HS |
| 47 | Indians | Y | Justin Hoyman | 4Yr | |
| 48 | Reds | Y | B.J. Szymanski | 4Yr | |
| 49 | Athletics via Orioles | Y | *Michael Rogers | 4Yr | |
| 50 | Rockies | Y | Seth Smith | 12 | 4Yr |
| 51 | Rangers | Y | K.C. Herren | HS | |
| 52 | Pirates | Y | Brian Bixler | -1.3 | 4Yr |
| 53 | White Sox via Angels | Y | *Wes Whisler | -0.1 | 4Yr |
| 54 | Expos | Y | Erick San Pedro | 4Yr | |
| 55 | Royals | Y | Billy Buckner | -1 | 4Yr |
| 56 | Diamondbacks | Y | Jon Zeringue | 4Yr | |
| 57 | Blue Jays | Y | Curtis Thigpen | -0.3 | 4Yr |
| 58 | Dodgers | Y | Blake Johnson | HS | |
| 59 | White Sox | Y | Donny Lucy | 0.2 | 4Yr |
| 60 | Cardinals | Y | Mike Ferris | 4Yr | |
| 61 | Twins | Y | Anthony Swarzak | 4.8 | HS |
| 62 | Phillies | Y | Jason Jaramillo | -0.8 | 4Yr |
| 63 | Royals via Mariners | Y | *Erik Cordier | -0.2 | HS |
| 64 | Astros | Y | Hunter Pence | 29.9 | 4Yr |
| 65 | Red Sox | Y | Dustin Pedroia | 52.2 | 4Yr |
| 66 | Cubs | Y | Grant Johnson | 4Yr | |
| 67 | Athletics | Y | Kurt Suzuki | 17.6 | 4Yr |
| 68 | Marlins | Y | Jason Vargas | 15.9 | 4Yr |
| 69 | White Sox via Yankees | Y | *Ray Liotta | JC | |
| 70 | Giants | Y | Eddy Martinez-Esteve | 4Yr | |
| 71 | Braves | Y | Eric Campbell | HS | |
| 72 | Padres | Y | Billy Killian | HS | |
| 73 | Tigers | Y | Jeff Frazier | -0.1 | 4Yr |
| 74 | Mets | Y | Gaby Hernandez | HS | |
| 75 | Devil Rays | Y | Wade Davis | 11.7 | HS |
| 76 | Brewers | Y | Joshua Wahpepah | JC | |
| 77 | Indians | Y | Scott Lewis | 0.6 | 4Yr |
| 78 | Reds | Y | Craig Tatum | 0.1 | 4Yr |
| 79 | Orioles | Y | Jeff Fiorentino | 0.7 | 4Yr |
| 80 | Rockies | Y | Steven Register | -0.2 | 4Yr |
| 81 | Rangers | Y | Michael Schlact | HS | |
| 82 | Pirates | Y | Eddie Prasch | HS | |
| 83 | Blue Jays via Angels | Y | *Adam Lind | 11.9 | 4Yr |
| 84 | Expos | Y | Ian Desmond | 17.2 | HS |
| 85 | Royals | Y | Josh Johnson | HS | |
| 86 | Diamondbacks | Y | Garrett Mock | -0.6 | 4Yr |
| 87 | Blue Jays | Y | Danny Hill | 4Yr | |
| 88 | Dodgers | Y | Cory Dunlap | JC | |
| 89 | White Sox | Y | Grant Hansen | 4Yr | |
| 90 | Cardinals | Y | Eric Haberer | 4Yr | |
| 91 | Twins | Y | Eddie Morlan | HS | |
| 92 | Phillies | Y | J.A. Happ | 17.3 | 4Yr |
| 93 | Mariners | Y | Matt Tuiasosopo | -0.2 | HS |
| 94 | Astros | Y | Jordan Parraz | JC | |
| 95 | Red Sox | Y | Andrew Dobies | 4Yr | |
| 96 | Cubs | Y | Mark Reed | HS | |
| 97 | Athletics | Y | Jason Windsor | -0.3 | 4Yr |
| 98 | Marlins | Y | Greg Burns | HS | |
| 99 | Yankees | Y | Christian Garcia | 0.3 | HS |
| 100 | Giants | Y | John Bowker | -1.5 | 4Yr |
Bush was a signability pick and the Padres picked the San Diego native over Verlander and Weaver, considered the top prospects heading into the draft. Bush ran into alcohol/substance problems and looked like he was going to be a bust. But he moved from the infield to the pitcher’s mound and developed into a hard-throwing reliever, even briefly holding the closer’s job for the Rangers last year.
While Bush leapt to the top of the draft because of his willingness to sign, Weaver fell to the 12th pick. While he may not have had a dominating MLB career, Weaver put up a very strong 34.6 WAR. He was one of six players in the first round to post a double-digit WAR and there’s an outside shot that one or two more will be added to that list before their career is over. Right now, 13 players have reached that double-digit total.
The Mets, thanks to a 66-95 record, had the third overall pick. Rumors had them interested in Verlander but when he went second, they ended up picking Humber from Rice University, a school which was in the process of establishing a reputation for overworking pitchers. The ’04 Owls had three pitchers who were highly regarded – Humber, Townsend and Niemann – and went in the top eight of the draft. Those three combined for just 5.0 WAR in the majors, although Humber did have one moment of glory as he threw a perfect game for the White Sox in 2012.
The Mets’ other two picks among the top 100 were Durkin and Hernandez, neither of which made the majors. But Hernandez did provide dividends for the Mets, as he was the main piece dealt to the Marlins for Paul Lo Duca, who turned in an All-Star season for the 2006 pennant winning squad.
Here’s the top 100, sorted by WAR:
| OvPck | Tm | Signed | Name | WAR | Type | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tigers | Y | Justin Verlander | 56.6 | 4Yr | |
| 65 | Red Sox | Y | Dustin Pedroia | 52.2 | 4Yr | |
| 12 | Angels | Y | Jered Weaver | 34.6 | 4Yr | |
| 64 | Astros | Y | Hunter Pence | 29.9 | 4Yr | |
| 38 | White Sox | Y | *Gio Gonzalez | 26.1 | HS | |
| 46 | Brewers | Y | Yovani Gallardo | 23.3 | HS | |
| 11 | Pirates | Y | Neil Walker | 20.4 | HS | |
| 67 | Athletics | Y | Kurt Suzuki | 17.6 | 4Yr | |
| 92 | Phillies | Y | J.A. Happ | 17.3 | 4Yr | |
| 15 | Diamondbacks | Y | Stephen Drew | 17.2 | 4Yr | |
| 84 | Expos | Y | Ian Desmond | 17.2 | HS | |
| 68 | Marlins | Y | Jason Vargas | 15.9 | 4Yr | |
| 40 | Athletics | Y | *Huston Street | 14.4 | 4Yr | |
| 50 | Rockies | Y | Seth Smith | 12 | 4Yr | |
| 83 | Blue Jays via Angels | Y | *Adam Lind | 11.9 | 4Yr | |
| 75 | Devil Rays | Y | Wade Davis | 11.7 | HS | |
| 23 | Yankees via Astros | Y | *Phil Hughes | 11.6 | HS | |
| 14 | Royals | Y | Billy Butler | 11.5 | HS | |
| 22 | Twins via Mariners | Y | *Glen Perkins | 8.7 | 4Yr | |
| 31 | Royals | Y | *J.P. Howell | 8 | 4Yr | |
| 20 | Twins | Y | Trevor Plouffe | 7.7 | HS | |
| 7 | Reds | Y | Homer Bailey | 6.2 | HS | |
| 61 | Twins | Y | Anthony Swarzak | 4.8 | HS | |
| 4 | Devil Rays | Y | Jeff Niemann | 4.1 | 4Yr | |
| 13 | Expos | Y | Bill Bray | 2.5 | 4Yr | |
| 1 | Padres | Y | Matt Bush | 2.3 | HS | |
| 28 | Dodgers via Yankees | Y | *Blake DeWitt | 1.9 | HS | |
| 6 | Indians | Y | Jeremy Sowers | 1.6 | 4Yr | |
| 17 | Dodgers | Y | Scott Elbert | 1.5 | HS | |
| 5 | Brewers | Y | Mark Rogers | 1.1 | HS | |
| 3 | Mets | Y | Philip Humber | 0.9 | 4Yr | |
| 27 | Marlins | Y | Taylor Tankersley | 0.7 | 4Yr | |
| 79 | Orioles | Y | Jeff Fiorentino | 0.7 | 4Yr | |
| 77 | Indians | Y | Scott Lewis | 0.6 | 4Yr | |
| 25 | Twins via Cubs | Y | *Kyle Waldrop | 0.5 | HS | |
| 99 | Yankees | Y | Christian Garcia | 0.3 | HS | |
| 24 | Athletics via Red Sox | Y | *Landon Powell | 0.2 | 4Yr | |
| 59 | White Sox | Y | Donny Lucy | 0.2 | 4Yr | |
| 16 | Blue Jays | Y | David Purcey | 0.1 | 4Yr | |
| 30 | Rangers via Braves | Y | *Eric Hurley | 0.1 | HS | |
| 78 | Reds | Y | Craig Tatum | 0.1 | 4Yr | |
| 35 | Twins | Y | *Matt Fox | 0 | 4Yr | |
| 41 | Yankees | Y | *Jeff Marquez | 0 | JC | |
| 53 | White Sox via Angels | Y | *Wes Whisler | -0.1 | 4Yr | |
| 73 | Tigers | Y | Jeff Frazier | -0.1 | 4Yr | |
| 36 | Athletics | Y | *Danny Putnam | -0.2 | 4Yr | |
| 63 | Royals via Mariners | Y | *Erik Cordier | -0.2 | HS | |
| 80 | Rockies | Y | Steven Register | -0.2 | 4Yr | |
| 93 | Mariners | Y | Matt Tuiasosopo | -0.2 | HS | |
| 57 | Blue Jays | Y | Curtis Thigpen | -0.3 | 4Yr | |
| 97 | Athletics | Y | Jason Windsor | -0.3 | 4Yr | |
| 10 | Rangers | Y | Thomas Diamond | -0.4 | 4Yr | |
| 21 | Phillies | Y | Greg Golson | -0.5 | HS | |
| 45 | Devil Rays | Y | Reid Brignac | -0.5 | HS | |
| 86 | Diamondbacks | Y | Garrett Mock | -0.6 | 4Yr | |
| 19 | Cardinals | Y | Chris Lambert | -0.8 | 4Yr | |
| 32 | Blue Jays | Y | *Zach Jackson | -0.8 | 4Yr | |
| 62 | Phillies | Y | Jason Jaramillo | -0.8 | 4Yr | |
| 55 | Royals | Y | Billy Buckner | -1 | 4Yr | |
| 18 | White Sox | Y | Josh Fields | -1.1 | 4Yr | |
| 52 | Pirates | Y | Brian Bixler | -1.3 | 4Yr | |
| 100 | Giants | Y | John Bowker | -1.5 | 4Yr | |
| 9 | Rockies | Y | Chris Nelson | -2.4 | HS | |
| 8 | Orioles | N | Wade Townsend | 4Yr | ||
| 26 | Athletics | Y | Richie Robnett | 4Yr | ||
| 29 | Royals via Giants | Y | *Matt Campbell | 4Yr | ||
| 33 | Dodgers | Y | *Justin Orenduff | 4Yr | ||
| 34 | White Sox | Y | *Tyler Lumsden | 4Yr | ||
| 37 | Yankees | Y | *Jon Poterson | HS | ||
| 39 | Twins | Y | *Jay Rainville | HS | ||
| 42 | Yankees via Padres | Y | *Brett Smith | 4Yr | ||
| 43 | Tigers | Y | Eric Beattie | 4Yr | ||
| 44 | Mets | Y | Matt Durkin | 4Yr | ||
| 47 | Indians | Y | Justin Hoyman | 4Yr | ||
| 48 | Reds | Y | B.J. Szymanski | 4Yr | ||
| 49 | Athletics via Orioles | Y | *Michael Rogers | 4Yr | ||
| 51 | Rangers | Y | K.C. Herren | HS | ||
| 54 | Expos | Y | Erick San Pedro | 4Yr | ||
| 56 | Diamondbacks | Y | Jon Zeringue | 4Yr | ||
| 58 | Dodgers | Y | Blake Johnson | HS | ||
| 60 | Cardinals | Y | Mike Ferris | 4Yr | ||
| 66 | Cubs | Y | Grant Johnson | 4Yr | ||
| 69 | White Sox via Yankees | Y | *Ray Liotta | JC | ||
| 70 | Giants | Y | Eddy Martinez-Esteve | 4Yr | ||
| 71 | Braves | Y | Eric Campbell | HS | ||
| 72 | Padres | Y | Billy Killian | HS | ||
| 74 | Mets | Y | Gaby Hernandez | HS | ||
| 76 | Brewers | Y | Joshua Wahpepah | JC | ||
| 81 | Rangers | Y | Michael Schlact | HS | ||
| 82 | Pirates | Y | Eddie Prasch | HS | ||
| 85 | Royals | Y | Josh Johnson | HS | ||
| 87 | Blue Jays | Y | Danny Hill | 4Yr | ||
| 88 | Dodgers | Y | Cory Dunlap | JC | ||
| 89 | White Sox | Y | Grant Hansen | 4Yr | ||
| 90 | Cardinals | Y | Eric Haberer | 4Yr | ||
| 91 | Twins | Y | Eddie Morlan | HS | ||
| 94 | Astros | Y | Jordan Parraz | JC | ||
| 95 | Red Sox | Y | Andrew Dobies | 4Yr | ||
| 96 | Cubs | Y | Mark Reed | HS | ||
| 98 | Marlins | Y | Greg Burns | HS |
It’s difficult as a Mets fan to look at the names available in this draft and who the team passed on at number three. In earlier looks this decade we saw the team make a great pick in David Wright and a strong pick with Scott Kazmir. But those two were the loud exceptions to the rule that the Mets drafted poorly in the first half of the 21st Century. This was the last draft before Omar Minaya took over.
Just for fun i’m going to start counting the number of pure first round guys who made the majors and played a full season – 600 PA for position players, 200 IP for starters, 75 innings for relievers – as it eliminates major leaguers with only sympathy appearances.
2000 – 9/29
2001 – 16/28
2002 – 21/29
2003 – 20/30
2004 – 20/30
Narrative about the same as yours, except while 03 wasn’t good at producing top end talent, it was the same as producing guys who played at least 1 year.
The whole point of doing this is to put things in some kind of context. If you have something you’d like to see done with the info – please let us know and we’ll look into it.
Right now it seems like you are tracking 2 things.
% of players to make the majors
% of players with double digit WAR.
I guess i would like to add
% of players that made an “impact”. I used what a full season’s worth of PA/IP as the minimum, but that’s arbitrary. It’s an effort to weed thru the players and pick out the guys like Kunz, who did appear in a major league game but had no impact. Similarly, if Nimmo, Cecchini, Plawecki did not appear in another MLB game i don’t think they have done enough to warrant putting in the “win” column for Alderson, and i think this stat reflects that.
The idea was to gather the information, put something up immediately and then look to do more stuff once we had presented everything.
I was thinking about production versus slot. You always hear people complain about – why did they draft A when they could have taken B instead? Unless the team has announced that we’re either going to take A or B – it should be what they got from the slot. In ’04 when the Mets took Humber, the complaint shouldn’t be – we should have taken Pedroia. It should be that with the 3rd overall pick the average team gets 15 WAR (or whatever it is) and the Mets didn’t come close to that.
I was also thinking of doing groupings. What should you expect if you have picks 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, etc.
And maybe we can even check to see if drafting has gotten better. We’re going to take it to 2011 or so. Break it into groups of three years and see if the 2009-2011 Drafts were better than the 2000-2002 ones.
But certainly open to whatever ideas you or anyone else might have.