When everything was falling to pieces all around him last year, Jacob deGrom gave the Mets a measure of stability. He posted career highs in Wins (15), IP (201.1) and Strikeouts (239) and claimed his second top 10 finish in the CY Award race. From a personal point of view, perhaps the biggest disappointment was that for the second year in a row, he got left off the All-Star team despite some strong numbers. While in 2016 he didn’t have the Wins, last year he was 9-3 with 130 Ks at the break and was passed over.
His overall numbers might have been even better had he not run into some trouble late in the year. He had a five-start stretch from mid-August to early September where he allowed 24 Runs in 31 IP. But deGrom righted the ship in his last three starts, posting a 2.37 ERA with 5 BB and 28 Ks in his final 19 IP.
One area of concern for deGrom was the number of homers he allowed last year. After giving up 31 homers combined over the 2015-16 seasons, he served up 28 gopher balls last year. He’s seen his HR/9 go from 0.45 in 2014 to 0.75 to 0.91 and 1.25 in 2017.
Here are our individual numbers for deGrom:
| Innings | ERA | K’s | BB | HR | FIP | All-Star | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Allison | 205 | 2.34 | 230 | 40 | 20 | 2.74 | Yes |
| Joe Barbieri | 204.3 | 3.08 | 226 | 49 | 16 | 2.66 | Yes |
| John Fox | 194 | 3.36 | 225 | 49 | 24 | 3.18 | Yes |
| David Groveman | 193 | 3.11 | 215 | 47 | 30 | 3.66 | Yes |
| Charlie Hangley | 210 | 2.96 | 196 | 26 | 13 | 2.44 | Yes |
| Brian Joura | 195 | 3.40 | 201 | 65 | 22 | 3.54 | No |
| Mike Koehler | 200 | 3.05 | 215 | 56 | 23 | 3.32 | Yes |
| Matt Netter | 210 | 2.95 | 219 | 44 | 14 | 2.54 | Yes |
| Jim O’Malley | 185 | 3.21 | 202 | 46 | 26 | 3.52 | Yes |
| Rob Rogan | 202 | 3.25 | 220 | 55 | 21 | 3.12 | No |
| Mike Walczak | 189 | 3.70 | 195 | 68 | 24 | 3.80 | No |
We all see him pitching a full season and 10 of the 11 of us see him surrendering fewer homers than a season ago. There’s a bigger disagreement among the panel as to deGrom’s ERA, with Dalton thinking he’ll give a sparkling 2.34 mark while Mike W. forecasts a 3.70 mark. Our wild card question was if he gets back to the All-Star game and eight of our contributors say yes.
Here is our group forecast:
We see deGrom giving the same quantity he did last year with even better quality. One thing that I like how it worked out is that we have his ERA and FIP being nearly identical. In his career, deGrom has a 2.98 ERA and a 3.07 FIP. Now, let’s check in with the computer models to see how optimistic our forecast is:
| Innings | ERA | K’s | BB | HR | FIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel | 175 | 3.50 | 190 | 51 | 22 | 3.47 |
| Mets360 | 199 | 3.11 | 213 | 50 | 21 | 3.12 |
| Steamer | 203 | 3.44 | 226 | 57 | 24 | 3.50 |
| ZiPS | 181.3 | 3.37 | 191 | 48 | 20 | 3.26 |
ZiPS has him throwing slightly more innings than we do but the other two systems have him below our projected total. All three systems see his ERA and FIP noticeably higher than ours. But this seems like a solid forecast from the group, assuming he can make 30-plus starts this season.
Check back this weekend for the next entry in our projection series.
I’m bullish on both deGrom and Syndergaard this year.
shouldnt the big picture say 2017 and 2018? I may be confused.
No, you were correct. Mike K. has updated the graphic. Thanks!