Many feel that the Mets’ 2017 season essentially ended when Noah Syndergaard went on the disabled list. So, it stands to figure that a healthy 2018 from Syndergaard is crucial for the team’s hopes to make it back to the playoffs. Prior to last season, Syndergaard spent a lot of time in the weight room bulking up, hoping to add even more velocity. This past offseason, while he still spent a lot of time working out, it was more with the idea of having flexibility rather than bulk.
The good news is that Syndergaard was able to make two brief appearances at the end of the 2017 season. His rehab was complete, so he could focus on a more normal offseason. The big question is he’ll be able to get back to, or even improve upon, what he delivered in 2016. Here’s what our panel thinks:
| Innings | ERA | K’s | BB | HR | FIP | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Allison | 202 | 2.97 | 230 | 40 | 15 | 2.42 | .320 |
| Joe Barbieri | 189 | 2.81 | 217 | 42 | 12 | 2.33 | .321 |
| John Fo | 190 | 2.51 | 225 | 49 | 14 | 2.50 | .319 |
| David Groveman | 156 | 3.07 | 177 | 44 | 21 | 3.46 | .318 |
| Charlie Hangley | 187 | 2.96 | 210 | 84 | 17 | 3.42 | .322 |
| Brian Joura | 219 | 2.83 | 252 | 47 | 20 | 2.66 | .316 |
| Mike Koehler | 175 | 2.85 | 197 | 39 | 10 | 2.29 | .315 |
| Matt Netter | 195 | 2.68 | 220 | 44 | 12 | 2.35 | .318 |
| Jim O’Malley | 178 | 3.05 | 192 | 29 | 9 | 2.12 | .332 |
| Rob Rogan | 190 | 2.85 | 220 | 35 | 17 | 2.53 | .320 |
| Mike Walczak | 180 | 3.20 | 195 | 51 | 15 | 2.90 | .312 |
The majority of us feel he’ll be able to give 180 or more innings. Of the three who didn’t have Syndergaard reaching that mark, two had him in the high 170s. Only David, with a total of 156 innings, is worried about Syndergaard needing an extended DL trip. All of us seeing him putting up a strong ERA, with Mike W’s 3.20 prediction being the highest one of the group.
The wild card category for Syndergaard is his BABIP. The past two years, he’s posted a .337 and .334 mark in the category. If he could post a league average mark in the category, it would allow him to put up even better marks across the board. Interestingly, not one of us saw a .300 mark in the category, with Mike W’s .312 mark being our most optimistic forecast.
Here’s our group projection:
| 2017 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|
| 30.1 | IP | 187.1 |
| 2.97 | ERA | 2.85 |
| 34 | Ks | 212 |
| 3 | BB | 46 |
| 0 | HR | 15 |
| 1.31 | FIP | 2.65 |
| 0.337 | BABIP | 0.319 |
After just 30 innings last year, 187 would be a welcome sight this season. Now let’s see how our forecast stacks up with the computer models:
| Innings | ERA | K’s | BB | HR | FIP | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel | 93 | 3.29 | 104 | 24 | 8 | 2.79 | |
| Mets360 | 187.1 | 2.85 | 212 | 46 | 15 | 2.65 | .319 |
| Steamer | 182 | 3.10 | 220 | 46 | 18 | 2.85 | .298 |
| ZiPS | 141 | 2.86 | 169 | 32 | 12 | 2.61 | .321 |
There was no Marcel projection for BABIP.
Our projection is right in line with the one by Steamer. Both Marcel and ZiPS are struggling with Syndergaard’s playing time, being a young guy with only one full year in the majors. Looking just at the ratio numbers, our forecast and ZiPS are nearly identical. Marcel projects a FIP right in line with the other systems but has him being more unlucky, with the highest ERA of the group.
Check back this weekend for the next entry in our projection series.
That’s me… the negative Nancy
Maybe Realistic Ralph is closer David. I have him pegged for 20-22 starts, 170 IP, and about a 3.0-3.2 ERA. Unfortunately, until he can show us a 2 strike put out pitch, he seems prone to mistakes, particularly HR. I figure over 170 IP, it’ll be 25 or so. I can envision 225 Ks and WHIP around 1.150
Any comments from the gallery about the likelihood of an Innings limit…do Guys go from 30 innings to a “full schedule”?
They have several guys in that same post injury/low 2017 innings category…how the heck will they manage that in August and September?
Its not just Syndergaard. Its everyone but deGrom.
side note. what the heck happened to baseballref? where did all the data go?
I just looked and everything seemed normal. No mention of any service interruption on their blog.
thx, its returned for me. ive been only getting the header a number of times Ive been there.
Eraff –
That’s a great point, but keep in mind that these guys are not going from AAA to the majors and most are none are coming back from what would be considered a major arm injury. Yes, all but deGrom and Montero had injuries, but none were of the UCL or shoulder capsule variety. That said, the beauty of this rotation’s depth is that we don’t have to pressure anyone to give us 33 starts and 200+ innings. If we can get 30/180 out of JDG, Thor, and either Harvey or Vargas, we’ll be fine.