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Shlabotnick is an outfielder, we seem pretty well stocked there, plus he’s kind of long in the tooth, I remember his baseball card from somewhere back in the last century, so I say no pursuing him as a free agent…
Love everything so far….
…except starting pitching efficiency.
This is going to pile up as a big issue.
In 2017, Paul Sewald pitched more than an inning in 15 of his 57 games (26%) and allowed 7 ER in 30.1 IP for a 2.08 ERA in those long appearances.
So far this year he’s done it 2 out of 3 times.and has allowed 1 ER in 5 IP for a 1.80 ERA in the long ones.
Who makes this deal?
Hey Jete….Sandy here. Crazy about things in Miami, but you are doing it right. Just have the patience it will take…look my phone is always on to take your call. Call it what ever you want, but course corrections are hard roads to go, just keep in mind, the talent you are getting really does matter. We all look at ’15 around here, and the Cubs and Astros. The system can work. So look, Im calling for another reason. Id like to see if you are open to talking about trading Realmuto. We know hes the real deal, so we can put Nimmo and Plawecki on the table for this. I know there’s a bit of time on Realmuto’s FA window, but its longer for both Nimmo and Plawecki. We like both, a lot, and Nimmo as you can see is looking like an every day guy with remarkable plate discipline. I know letting JT go would be painful, but the same here. NY fans love Nimmo, and you can see why, and Plawecki is a solid guy and a nice receiver. Pretty quick turn around on this Derek, hope to hear from you later today.
I don’t think the Marlins do it. Not because it’s not a fair deal but they should be looking to stockpile pitching. Mets probably won’t trade Peterson and it’s questionable if the Marlins would accept any other arm. My version of your question would be:
Who says no
Mets get Realmuto
Marlins get Oswalt, Dunn, Plawecki
Call the presser…I’m ready to go on stage and welcome Realmuto to Queens. I file that deal under “prospects are cool, parades are cooler”.
(not sure that gets it done, but I see where you are going).
By the way, the Marlins could look at Nimmo as a trade chip as well.
Do it in a heartbeat
No way on God’s green earth I would include Nimmo in any deal for Realmuto. I would be reluctant to put Nimmo in any deal at this point. He’s just looking way too good as a hitter. He also has speed, is a good baserunner, is an adequate (or better) fielder, has great BB instincts and hustles all the time. And his plate discipline is off the charts. Oh, and he’s young, too!!
Having said that, I really like the idea of Realmuto behind the plate. But not enough to include Nimmo in any package.
“That loss dropped the Nationals to a lackluster 7-9, even though Bryce Harper mashed his MLB-leading seventh home run — and keep in mind that Strasburg and Max Scherzer have started half the team’s 16 games. After opening the season with a sweep over the hapless Reds, the Nationals have gone just 4-9, with some obvious issues to worry about.”
http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/85823/real-or-not-are-the-mets-the-team-to-beat-in-the-nl-east
Color me heartbroken…
Despite only 1 division leader from last year is also leading the division this year, the Fangraphs projection is still insisting that all 6 will come back to repeat. It’s a crummy model that doesn’t digest new info quickly enough.
538 is more sensible, with only 4 repeat winners, as it seems to incorporate the current season stats more quickly than Fangraphs.
538 is the best going IMO
I get that you think that the model should predict more changes initially. But I can’t sign off on demanding big changes when fewer than 10 percent of games have been played.
Right now FG projects the following 10 playoff clubs:
AL – Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Yankees, Angels
NL – Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers, Cardinals, Mets
Which clubs would you eliminate from that list and which ones would you add based on what we’ve seen, rather than the fact that the teams always change?
Your complaint seems to be that there’s significant turnover in playoff clubs from year to year so unless we start off predicting that, then the forecasts are useless. But the forecasts are trying to predict “true talent” level rather than ultimate outcome. It’s no different that forecasts for AVG. Last year Jose Altuve led the majors with a .346 AVG, in 2016 DJ LeMahieu led with a .348 mark and in 2015 it was Miguel Cabrera with a .338 mark. Essentially, we “know” someone’s going to hit .340 but no one is predicted to do that.
ZiPS’ highest has Altuve at .318
Steamer’s highest has Murphy at .311
Should they forecast someone to hit .340 just because someone does it every year? Altuve has a .339 lifetime BABIP and last year it was .370 — the projection model is supposed to know who’s going to have the good fortune to beat their already high BABIP by 31 points? And it’s only worse on a team basis. The models are supposed to predict which team is going to enjoy good health, which ones are going to come through in the clutch and which guys are coming out of nowhere to have career years?
It seems to me that you’re asking the models to predict luck and good fortune and that’s not what they do.
The Rockies play .500 during night games but somehow win 35 games during the day last year
The Diamondbacks go from winning 33 games at home in 2016 to winning 52 games at home in 2017 while being just marginally better in road games.
It’s crazy stuff like that which goes a long way to determining team outcomes. Anyone who projected either of those teams to make the playoffs last year on April 17 doesn’t deserve praise any more than the guy who picked the number that came up on the roulette wheel.
You’ll probably disagree with me, but I’m of the mindset that if you can’t do something well, don’t do it at all. Or do it privately but don’t publish it and pretend like it’s something useful that the public should consume.
We all know that rolling a dice should yield each number coming about 1/6th of the time, we don’t need a model to tell us that.
So, if all these models do are compute weighted averages of player’s prior seasons, combined with across the board generalized regressions, unless the team changed significantly(either an extreme fire sale or 50% new faces from FA), the forecast that it spits out is going to be status quo of what happened last year. So then why bother looking at these so called “projections”?
The models can’t predict luck and i don’t expect it to. But if randomness is such a significant factor such that the accuracy of the prediction is low, at least post disclaimers or like i said above, don’t publish it.
But Pittsburgh has gotten off to such a good start! I’m half kidding. It was kind of assumed though that they’d fall out of contention after dealing away there best pitcher and player, but they still have some talent and I wouldn’t take them lightly in a 3-game series. If they stay healthy and get a few breaks they could still be a .500 team.
Josh Harrison hits the DL for 6 weeks with a broken hand.
Sometimes, the trades you don’t make…
Well, if he was traded he wouldn’t have been in Miami on 4/15 batting leadoff against Jose Urena…
I think I’m going to like this section.
Last night, a girl I work with had the night off and when with her boyfriend to a baseball game. The Corpus Christi Hooks were playing last night at home and they got tickets although neither one is really a baseball fan. They don’t know the difference between a long ball and a bloop. I asked her this morning how her experience was. She said it was great. She smiled and said the third inning took forever. She said they kept changing the pitcher and the Hooks hit like five homeruns in the inning. One batter had like 10 foul balls, took forever to get him out. Although the experience as a whole was good and she loved it. I thought that was pretty cute. Nice to get non-baseball fans’ reactions to games, because they’re pure and look at the big picture where baseball fans can breakdown a single at-bat for a half hour.
By the way, no homeruns were hit in the third. The only one hit was the fourth. So cute…
https://www.milb.com/travelers/news/hooks-blank-travs/c-272509752
A common mistake that people who aren’t fans make is to consider each run scored as a “Home Run.” I see the Hooks scored 5 in the third inning.
I knew what she meant, but as she was telling me she was getting more and more excited. I smiled and listened; I was happy for her; She had a great time. I don’t think explaining the difference would have mattered.
I was just telling some hardcore fans like us, how non-fans see the game: The first words out of her mouth were ‘the third inning took forever because they kept coming to change the pitcher’. Then, she moved on to more details.