Matt Harvey in the bullpen, free Brandon Nimmo, Jerry Blevins’ usage

One criticism of the Mets of recent vintage is that they let the tail wag the dog, especially when it comes to Matt Harvey. So it was both surprising and encouraging to see them act decisively in sending Harvey to the bullpen, soon after he declared to the world that he was a starting pitcher. The Mets could have waited another start but decided they didn’t want to risk falling behind in another game by six runs. In a way, this move feels very satisfying. In another way, it feels hasty.

Harvey’s problems are well-known. The TOS surgery robbed him of velocity and he was struggling to redefine himself as a pitcher. The new braintrust wanted him to throw more offspeed pitches yet when he did that, Harvey did not have success. So, is the problem Harvey or is it that they didn’t come up with the appropriate plan (yet) for him? And if it’s the latter, is it fair that he gets exiled to the pen so quickly?

It’s hard to argue that a guy with a 6.00 ERA should be in the rotation. But it’s important to note that Harvey has a 4.71 FIP and a 3.61 xFIP. We see from his FIP that Harvey’s peripherals should result in a better ERA. And we see from his xFIP that he’s getting hurt badly by the gopher ball. Harvey has surrendered 4 HR in 21 IP and that’s … well, it’s not good. But two of those homers were ones that didn’t appear to be out when they came off the bat.

One thing that Harvey does have going for him here in 2018 is a nice 4.25 K/BB ratio, the 28th-best mark in the majors so far. The pitcher right above him with a 4.33 rate has a 3.08 ERA and the pitcher right below him with a 4.00 mark has a 2.03 ERA. Typically a K/BB ratio that good doesn’t come with a HR rate this bad. But that’s what we have with Harvey here so far.

So, what happens when he goes to the pen? Does he ditch throwing so many changeups and curve balls and try to become a power pitcher again? Or does he look to improve on those two offerings in low leverage situations? Do they look to use him in short stints or in three-inning bursts? Moving Harvey to the bullpen might have been the easy call. But it’ll be harder to decide what to do with him now that he’s there.

GOTTA KNOW WHEN TO PLAY ‘EM – Two offseasons ago, the big signing for the team was Yoenis Cespedes. This past offseason, the biggest acquisition was Jay Bruce. Those two pickups made Juan Lagares and Brandon Nimmo battlers for playing time as fourth and fifth outfielders. Yet heading into Sunday, Cespedes sits with a .612 OPS and Bruce checks in with a .608 mark. Meanwhile, in fewer than half the PA, Lagares has an .838 OPS and Nimmo has a 1.248 mark, easily the best on the team.

Cespedes has a staggering 37 Ks in 89 trips to the plate for a 41.6 K%. Bruce has just three hits in his last 35 PA and has looked shaky in the outfield. Yet they’ve each played in all 20 games, combining for 36 starts. Nimmo has just five starts but the Mets are 4-1 in those games and the loss was one where they took a 6-1 lead into the eighth inning. Right now, the Mets should be looking for ways to get Nimmo in the game. And in what should be a fortunate coincidence, they should be looking for days off for both Bruce and Cespedes. Instead we see the same outfield alignment day after day.

MORE COLLINS-ESQUE MANEUVERINGS – The hope was that with Terry Collins and Dan Warthen no longer making in-game decisions that the Mets would not be so in love with the LOOGY gambit. But we see Jerry Blevins being used on both a pace and a batters faced percentage that would make Collins nod in approval. He’s appeared in 12 of the team’s 20 games and faced two or fewer batters 10 times.

For the most part, Blevins is very good against lefty batters and it does make some sense to bring him in to face a lefty in a high-leverage spot. But it’s important to know the guys he neutralizes and the ones he doesn’t. And unfortunately for the Mets, Blevins has no special ability to get out either Bryce Harper or Freddie Freeman.

In 15 PA against Blevins, Harper has a 1.103 OPS. In 20 PA against Blevins, Freeman is batting .526 with a 1.237 OPS. Blevins has faced those two big hitters four times this year and they are a combined 3-3 with a double, 4 RBIs and a walk. All the other lefties he’s faced this year are a combined 2-11. There’s no shame in not having awesome numbers against hitters as good as Freeman and Harper. The shame is a team reflexively using a lefty reliever against those two with zero regard as to how he actually performs. Freeman and Harper don’t need to face a soft-tossing lefty; they need to face a pitcher who throws 95+ up in the zone.

THE CATCHING SITUATION – The Mets signed Jose Lobaton this offseason, seemingly as much to keep from facing him as it was for him to provide veteran depth at Triple-A. Unfortunately, both Mets catchers are on the disabled list and Lobaton is the default starter. And not being able to face the Mets, against whom he had a .966 OPS last year, has left Lobaton with a 1-16 ledger, with the hit coming in his very first trip to the plate.

Plus, he’s not exactly wowing us with his defense, either. Mets pitchers have a 5.53 ERA with Lobaton behind the plate and opposing runners have been successful on seven of nine attempts. And one of the outs came when the runner failed to hold the bag after he successfully swiped it. The bar to be a useful backstop is not a high one but Lobaton is failing to exceed it. It’s not an easy answer to decide whether or not to trade for a starting catcher. Unfortunately, Lobaton seems to be trying his best to force the issue.

PITCHES PER OUT – Faithful reader Chris F. has been disappointed with the starting pitcher performance and has gone beyond just looking at pitches to focus on the number of pitches the starter needs on average to record an out. In his start April 15 against Milwaukee, Noah Syndergaard did not allow an earned run and picked up 11 Ks. But he needed 101 pitches to record 16 outs, a rate of 6.31 pitches per out.

Back in 2003, Derek Zumsteg of Baseball Prospectus charted the pitches per out (PPO) of every starter to throw at least 10 games as of the date of his research, which was early August. He found that the best mark was Greg Maddux, who had a PPO of 4.50 while the worst mark was Colby Lewis, who had a 6.34 PPO.

Of course an individual game can see PPOs either better or much worse than what Zumsteg found over 10 or more games. And the utility of PPO may best be on an inning-by-inning basis, rather than a game-by-game one. In his last start, Harvey needed 56 pitches to record the first nine outs of the game, a mark of 7.0 PPO. Over his final three frames, he needed 26 pitches for nine outs, a rate of 2.89 PPO. It would seem that an ideal reliever candidate would have PPOs that would trend the exact opposite way.