Brandon Nimmo started on Sunday and got on base four times in five trips to the plate. That brings his OPS to .452 for the season. That’s a terrific mark but he’s done even better if we isolate the games he started versus the games he came in off the bench.
Starter – .289/.471/.526 in 51 PA
Replacement – .188/.409/.250 in 22 PA
He’s just 1-8 as a PH and 2-8 when he comes in as a defensive replacement.
But, we need to play AGone or Bruce at all times, while finding time for Flores?
Anyway, here’s why I came today:
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23492502/mickey-callaway-recipe-surviving-first-taste-mets-drama
In today’s age of so-called “advanced analytics” I often wonder why the antiquated and misleading way runs are charged to pitchers hasn’t been modernized.
We all know about “runs responsible for” and how these runs are charged to those pitchers who allowed runners on base who eventually scored when they were out of the game. Leave a runner on first and a relief pitcher allows that runner to score, the run is charged to the pitcher who left with that runner on.
It seems to me there is a much better — and more accurate for all pitchers involved — way to account for runs.
In the above case where a pitcher exits leaving a runner on first, if that runner scores, I believe the pitcher who put him on should be charged with 1/4 of a run (for the one base). The reliever who allowed him to score should be charged with 3/4 of a run, for the three bases he allowed the inherited runner to advance. I think all runs should be charged in this manner — debiting the pitchers record with fractions of runs based upon how many bases the scoring runner earned off of him, be it a quarter run, half run or three-quarter run. Seems a much more accurate and fair way to accurately reflect runs against a pitcher.
With today’s advanced numbers, I am kind of shocked something like this hasn’t already happened. The way it is done now doesn’t accurately reflect ERA’s at all in these scenarios.
I’m not opposed to the idea of fractional credit for runs allowed but if it’s to be done it can’t be on a simple “bases” method. If Pitcher A gives up a leadoff double and Pitcher B comes in and gets three groundouts but the runner scores — there’s no way they should both receive the same amount of damage for that run.
A runner on second and no outs, with a run environment of 4.15 rpg, the run expectancy is 1.068 – and since the current rpg in the NL is 4.34, it will be slightly higher than that. If the reliever comes on and only one run scores, he’s done about what should be expected and it would be a mistake to credit him for half of that run scoring.
It seems to me that you can get a lot of what you’re looking for from either WPA or WPA/LI
Just looking for a way for common occurrences to be more fairly credited to guys records. Your example Brian — a double and three grounders to score the run — is surely a very, very rare thing. It may happen once a month — if that often. On the other hand, inherited runners are scored in virtually every game.
While I understand your point, there simply has to be a better way to account for all of these runs. WPA, while marginally useful, doesn’t begin to account for runners charged to one guy but allowed to score by another.
I gave one example and while perhaps that one doesn’t occur often there are 20+ other examples that could have been used. Perhaps not one of them occurs at a great rate but collectively it adds up.
It’s tougher to come on as a reliever with men on base compared to a clean inning and no matter what the circumstance that a reliever enters with inherited runners, the lion’s share of the blame for the run(s) scoring should go to the pitcher who created the mess.
And WPA and WPA/LI use the R/E matrix to properly value the situation, depending if you want to factor leverage in or not. It’s not marginal. Just check out the respective WPAs for deGrom and Familia in the Nationals game for a clear example.
Some things in life are very simple to figure out. The Nimmer needs to start every single day until he proves that he shouldn’t.
Nimmo fills an even more important role. With no true leadoff hitter who can get on base, he fills that role.
Nimmo should be starting against RHP and leading off. He is not an everyday player. He has a .530 OPS vs LHP in 2017 and .333 OPS in 2018 vs LHP which is inferior to other roster options.
His numbers vs LHP are definitely concerning, but until he gets a steadier diet of ABs vs LHP at the major league level it will be hard to determine if he is an everyday player.
Does Amed Rosario have a really long swing? I just look at him getting better at recognizing pitches out of the zone but he sure can swing and miss. So he’s here to solidify the infield and he sure does that.
Louis Guillume from what I here might have an even better glove than Rosario. When Todd Frzier comes off the DL what does one think of Roario going to the desert to get his stroke in order?
deGrom’s One Inning: I don’t know more about this than Calloway. I also am not protecting my own multi million dollar asset. Finally, I realize he was coming off an injury, and I don’t know what his prep was on a rainy day…….. I can’t stand the fact that they took him out after 1 inning.
The value of Pitchers is that they Pitch. I don’t buy the entire concept that “more pitchers are getting hurt than the old days”…. bullshit!!!!! Maybe it’s being tracked better. I knew guys with “sore arms” at 15! Torn Rotators…Torn UCLs—they just couldn’t do a damned thing for them. Now “Guys with Arm Problems” pitch for years…before, after and in between surgeries.
We all get too old to play…and Pitchers get to old to pitch. I don’t want to be Mindless about this, but Pitchers need to Pitch.
Extra Note–Rosario is playing here—he needs to stay at the MLB level, as long as he’s not being crushed by it. Fact of Life.
Beyond the numbers, I love the energy and enthusiasm he brings – like how he races to first base after getting hit by a pitch.