From my top 50 prospects article published before the start of the season:
Some guys not ranked that you may find curious:
Kevin Kaczmarski – I guess he still has a shot to make the majors because of the lack of depth with outfielders in the upper minors. But let’s be honest – he didn’t exactly set Double-A on fire last year with his .739 OPS as a 25 year old. And if the Mets had to make a move to add an OFer, this would be the appropriate time to go dumpster diving and look for the veteran who was good three years ago.
And dumpster diving they went yesterday, signing Jose Bautista after he was released by the Braves. Now, maybe his terrible hitting for Atlanta was due to the fact that they were trying to make him play 3B. Or maybe it’s because he’s over the hill. In an age where fewer and fewer PAs go to older players, the Mets are filling their lineup with Adrian Gonzalez (36), Jose Reyes (35) and now the 37-year-old Bautista.
In his first time up as a Met, Bautista doubled down the left field line and eventually scored the team’s only run. You know who else produced an extra-base hit their first time up as a Met this season? Jose Lobaton, who tripled. Lobaton, in his age 33 season, has a .489 OPS this year.
Bautista figures to only play against LHP. The problem is that he was even worse against lefties (.629 OPS) than righties (.688) in 2017. In isolation, this move isn’t worth getting worked up about. Unfortunately, it’s not in isolation, either this year or during the Sandy Alderson era.
My comment above about the appropriate time to go dumpster diving was if the choice was a washed-up veteran or Kaczmarski. But that wasn’t the only option that the Mets had. In looking to get a righty bat in the dugout, the Mets could have opted for Peter Alonso, who has a .345/.475/.634 triple slash line in Double-A after 183 PA.
Now, Alonso is not an outfielder. He’s a first baseman and reports are that he’s improved defensively to the point where he’s no longer a liability. Could he hack it in the outfield? Maybe, maybe not. All I know is that the Mets have played guys in the outfield with little or no experience previously. Off the top of my head there was Phillip Evans and Matt Reynolds and Lucas Duda and Juan Samuel and Mike Jorgensen and undoubtedly others.
The Mets’ response was when their two righty hitting outfielders went on the DL to have lefty-hitting first baseman Dominic Smith play the outfield. Yes, when he was drafted as a prepster, Smith played some in the outfield. But he hadn’t played even one inning in the outfield as a professional and he was drafted in 2013. And if the goal was to get a righty hitter up – why choose to experiment with Smith rather than Alonso? Recall that as a junior at Florida in 2016, Alonso played 57 games at third base. He has more recent experience – and more experience – playing a position besides first than Smith.
We’ve seen in the lower levels of the minors that the Mets are playing their infielders at multiple positions, giving them experience at 2B and 3B and SS so that they’ll be able to play wherever a need arises. Is there any reason they can’t do that with their corner guys, as well? Why wait until after the need arises to try this out? Would it have been unthinkable to try Alonso in the outfield a couple of days a month?
In a perfect world, the idea of trying Alonso as an outfielder at the major league level would not happen. But clearly this is not a perfect world. If Duda could survive playing the outfield on a regular basis, surely Alonso could survive playing there twice a week until Cespedes returns. If the Nationals can call up 19-year-old Juan Soto after 35 PA in Double-A, the Mets can call up a 23 year old with 230 PA at the same level.
Could a move like that fail? Absolutely. But let’s not pretend that Bautista comes with some sort of guarantee. In 2015, the Mets promoted Michael Conforto from Double-A and let him play with the platoon advantage and he flourished. Now they’re finally giving some PA to Brandon Nimmo and he’s done well, too. It’s not like they have had zero success with letting their top draft picks play.
Again, in an ideal world, Alonso would be in the minors playing every day. But in 2018, he should be in Citi Field, playing when the other team pitches a lefty. Some might think of this as a desperation move. Funny, that’s my description of signing Bautista. It’s just that Alonso might give the team something more than a dead cat bounce.
I cringed at the news that Bautista was signed. What a joke. Just what we need — a slow, old, defensively challenged, youth-blocking, .240 lifetime flailer who might hit a ball solid every ten PA or so, if he’s lucky.
What, Sandy, we don’t enough of that type player?
Official notice! The Mets have signed 37 year old Bautista. Most teams see a 37 year old player as “past his prime. The Mets see him as a rookie so they have officially changed their name to the NY Meticaids. These are the new rules for the Meticaids.
1. The meticaids will be wearing Life Alerts instead of any jewelry. This is in the unlikely event they get on base….but get stranded.
2. There will be an Acorn chairlift installed in the dugout steps so they can safely make it to the batters circle
3. While warming up in the batters circle, they will not be allowed to swing a bat. Instead they will use a “Hurry cane”.
4. All opposing pitchers will only be allowed to pitch underhand.
5. The Gatorade will be replaced with warm milk.
6. The 7th inning stretch will be changed to the 7th inning nap.
7. There will be oxygen stations placed at 1st and 3rd bases
8. All players will be allowed to use wheel chairs to take the field and also for base stealing attempts.
I really can’t believe they’ve decided to sign senior citizens…..I give up!
He’s fallen and he can’t get up.
This is why Alderson needs to go.
By bringing in Bautista, they are hoping that he can recapture some former glory.
If they were to call up Alonso, they would hope that he can make the leap adjust to MLB pitching.
In both cases, you’re hoping for something that you don’t know what will happen. Are the odds better or worse for either scenario? There’s obviously no definitive answer.
But the rationale for going with the “old washed up guy” is that you can increase your probability of success if you try #1 first, and then if that fails, then try #2. If you went with #2 immediately, route #1 might not be available by the time you determine #2 has failed.
Also, psychological for the fanbase there’s a benefit to keep guys down as it keeps them looking forward to something. Last year at this time people had high hopes for Rosario and Smith and were excited at the prospect of seeing them. This year mentioning Smith’s name brings up little enthusiasm and no one is really clamoring to see him.
I truly hope the organization is making decisions based upon something other than the psyche of the fan base.
Why? Isn’t a primary goal, actually maybe the main goal, of a sports franchise to make their fans happy?
Only in a strict theoretical sense. In reality, the main goal is to milk as much money from fans and cities as possible.
Gus mentioned Rick Ankiel, who got 71 PA and put up a .603 OPS for a team going nowhere in 2013. Hopefully, Bautista will be on a shorter leash for a team with designs on a playoff spot. The Braves gave up on him after 40 PA.
I am rather indifferent to the Joey Bats signing. Yes, it is clearly a sign of weakness at the upper levels of the minors, and yes, adding a very likely washed up 37 year old is a bit depressing. Alonso to LF is interesting, and if it was his regular position I’d be all in, but given his defensive challenges so far I’d shy away from it for now. Joey gets a limited audition with essentially nothing to lose here…it would be hard to do worse vs LHP than they have so far. Let’s see where they stand wins and losses wise and roster wise after the next 3 series, 4 in Milwaukee, 3 in Atlanta, and 4 home vs. Cubs. This stretch could really do them in the way their offense is playing now.
Never heard the term “dead cat bounce” before. I quite like it.
The bigger issue is why we don’t have a single decent outfielder in AA or AAA. Desmond Lindsay has proven to be a bust and otherwise we have a lot of marginal players, retreads and career minor leaguers roaming the minor league grass.
Alonso is a DH in the making – Lucas Duda from the right side. His future is either platooning with Dom Smith or getting traded to the AL. Anderson needs to knock it off with drafting first baseman and injury prone pitchers. This organization needs some athletes.
The need to sign Jose Bautista was best exemplified by the release of Colby Woodmansee this morning. Another wasted Day2 pick from a recent draft, in fact, from rounds 3-10, I don’t think the Mets got anything at all in the last seven years. Since there is no pipeline, there’s a need to bring in another great guy and leader. I won’t mention the results from Day3… for the last seven years!!! Wow!
You need context. Not sure years that were researched, but here are MLB odds for drafting in certain rounds
http://www.angelfire.com/vt/prospectwatch/index171.html
5th round picks have about 28% chance of reaching the majors and 15% play more than 3 years.
Mdd and Leathersich were the 5th round picks in 2010 and 2011 and they both made it. 2012 and 2013 guys flamed out. 2014 is Prevost, who is still playing. 2015 is Szapucki, who was highly touted before being injured.
For rounds 3+ guys probably spend 5+ years in the minors so nothing in the last 7 years shouldn’t be unusual. Guys who were drafted in 2012/2013 are just making their debut in the last year and half.
2011:
3rd -Logan Verrett
4th – Tyler Pill
8th – Muno
2012:
3rd Matt Koch (traded to dbacks)
7th -Corey Oswalt
8th- Nido
10th- Sewald
2013:
10th – Guillorme
Sandy has been here for 7 Years? His Young Arms are now older and about to get expensive….and they’re a spotty group! He was supposed to rotate to young and cheap positional players as the pitching matured and became expensive…. and that’s looking pretty shaky!
They need a good surprise or three! I believe they may find some pitchers in their system, but they’re a way off in identifying whether Alonzo, Vientos and Gimenez are going top become Real.
They need a good bounce!
Why not just bring back Bobby Bo? They’re paying him anyway.