Neither Steven Matz nor Zack Wheeler got off to promising starts in 2018. Through games of May 19, Matz had a 4.42 ERA and had only pitched six innings in one of his eight games. And Wheeler had a 5.92 ERA after seven games and allowed 6 HR in 38 IP. Both were healthy. After years of saying wouldn’t it be great to see the staff at full strength, we were seeing two of the perpetually wounded getting knocked around on a regular basis.
But since the third week of May, those two have been different pitchers. Matz has a 2.73 ERA in his last 10 games while Wheeler has a 3.63 ERA in his last 69.1 IP. Unfortunately the rest of the team has not fared particularly well and now it appears everyone is on the trading block and these two pitchers probably have the biggest trade value, when you factor in what it would take to get them versus what they might produce in return.
It seems like the Mets are considering Wheeler as more expendable than Matz. But in these last eight weeks or so, Wheeler has better peripherals. He has a 3.24 FIP compared to the 4.12 FIP of Matz. Compared to Matz, Wheeler has been throwing with greater velocity, which is not a big surprise, and he’s done a better job of limiting walks, which is a huge shock.
Plus, it seems like Wheeler has pitched better than his overall numbers. Saturday, he gave up three runs in the eighth inning in part because his defense let him down. In a previous start, he surrendered a grand slam homer after not getting a strike three call that should have ended the inning. And he had a game where the pen allowed three inherited runners to score. All pitchers have things like this happen to them throughout the season. They’re happening to Wheeler now and they’re masking what a nice stretch he’s on.
My preference would be not to deal either one; however, if forced to make a deal, Matz would be the one on the go for me.
FLORES FINDS A HOME? – Since coming off the DL, Wilmer Flores has a .302/.327/.542 line in 104 PA. He’s made 24 starts in that stretch and 20 of those have come at first base, as his activation closely mirrored when the Mets sent Adrian Gonzalez packing. It’s much preferable to May, when Flores played 10 games at third base. Does Flores have the bat to play first base? An .869 OPS and the answer is yes but we’ll need to see that over a much longer stretch. But we know he can’t play on the left side of the infield and we really don’t need to see him at 2B, either. The ball finds him and the results are often awful. But if we’re going to kick him as often as he boots balls, the least we can do is acknowledge it when he produces with the bat. And he’s been a very productive player offensively since mid-June.
PLAYING TIME BLUES – Here’s how the Mets stack up against their division rivals in terms of PA for the 10 guys on each team with the most trips to the plate.
NYM – 377, 342, 307, 303, 260, 236, 232, 187, 156, 152
ATL – 428, 416, 415, 405, 324, 263, 243, 180, 175, 158
MIA – 419, 416, 378, 357, 347, 311, 298, 254, 152, 142
PHI – 419, 403, 389, 366, 337, 299, 260, 244, 243, 144
WSN – 426, 414, 323, 304, 299, 209, 205, 203, 160, 140
There are 12 guys with more PA than Asdrubal Cabrera, the Mets’ leader in the category. And a betting man would wager that Cabrera doesn’t finish the year with the club.
REST AGREES WITH ROSARIO – After the game of June 13, Amed Rosario had a .610 OPS and many wondered if the former top prospect even belonged in the majors. But in the last month, the 22 year old has put up a .284/.361/.500 line in 84 PA. A starter swinging a hot bat will usually get more trips to the plate than that in a month. But manager Mickey Callaway has started to give Rosario mental breathers, so Rosario has only started 21 times in this stretch where the Mets have played 29 games. The higher average you can attribute to a .364 BABIP and the increased OBP you can credit some intentional walks as he now bats ahead of the pitcher. But 11 XBH in 74 ABs is not so easily explained. That’s a .216 ISO, compared to a .106 ISO the first 62 games of the season.
SPIRIT OF 7-6 – After putting up a dismal 5-21 record in June, the Mets are 7-6 here in July. They have one more game against the Nationals before the All-Star break. The Mets finish the month with three against the Yankees and Padres, four against the Pirates and one more against the Nats. They have a chance to finish over .500 for a month for the first time since April. Or half the team could be traded and they could post their third straight losing month.
Why then does to team choose to having Cespedes play first base on his rehabbing? Seems like Flores is doomed to come off the bench to PH or wait until someone gets hurt. Which with this team is a weekly affair. If Cespedes has issues with his legs what happens when he has to stretch for a bad throw?
Pete, Cespedes said he wants to play first base. The team said left field, and “we’ll see”. You can’t pay this guy $29MM because of his defense in left and offense, and now he plays first base. Screw that. Rest him twice a week, no matter how much he bitches, and keep him in left.
I’v always been a Zack Wheeler fan. From day one, I said he reminded me of John Smoltz. He also seems like a good guy. That said, I would make him available in trade. I would not look to trade him, and would be fine with keeping him in the rotation for the remainder of the year and rechecking his trade value in the winter or even keeping him next year. But for a solid offer (not marginal relief prospects, I would move him. I just don’t trust his mechanics and health enough to commit long term.
Matz has shown fragility as well, but he’s younger, has more years of control, left handed and home grown. I would actually love to see the Mets make him a modest long term extension offer like they did with Lagares.
Brian,
Great summary and Sunday morning reading. For old school print media guys like me, these articles are golden.
So, putting aside the trauma of the last season and a half, the Mets are certainly a riddle as to how to proceed for 2019-2021. I am still on the side of holding the all controllable pitching, but of course that depends on what the market has to offer in terms of value. Should Wheeler return a quality major league ready positional prospect plus an almost ready quality starter prospect, it may make sense to move him. Otherwise, I get what I can for Familia, Cabrera, Joey Bats, Blevins, etc.; essentially any other non-controllable player that another team shows interest in.
What Rosario, Conforto, Plawecki, and Nimmo show through the end of 2018 is absolutely crucial. Whichever shows reliable positive development will have a big impact on measuring how far away they project for competing in 2019, what the holes are, and how possible it is to fill those holes with monetary and/or trade resources. Even if they stay pat, the need to add an impact bat, multiple bullpen pieces, and better defense. Of all the players, Rosario is likely the most important. He has recently shown better offense, but his defense is essential to team construction going forward. If he can be a plus defender over the balance of they year, and push is OPS into the mid .700s, it cast the team in a different light.
While muddling along each year trying to compete by adding mediocre vets is not a great formula, complete tear downs are no sure thing, especially when it comes to replacing elite pitching. For all the focus on hitting and really young positional players succeeding in the NL East, the Braves and Phillies are at the top of the division because of their pitching first, followed by their hitting. The Phillies, in a hitters park, have scored fewer runs than the Pirates, in a pitchers park. I’m still inclined to build off deGrom-Syndergaard-Wheeler-Matz-Lugo-Gsellman.
I agree and I would add Dominic Smith and McNeil/TJ Rivera to your list of people to give playing time to the remainder of the season.
Ill say this, adding mediocre vets is far more demoralizing than playing up and coming stars. Nothing is a sure thing, except the plan we are on with “a bat and an arm” will never work.
I dont think thats a fair assessment of the Braves, who are in the top third of the NL on almost all offensive metrics.
A couple questions in this build off this rotation approach:
1. Is this a 2019-2020 operation or is it longer?
2. If it is longer, what types of expectations do you have for salaries?
3. If it is shorter, so this gets done while deGrom and Syndergaard are present, how do you approach the “retool” with the existing financial obligations? That is, what holes do you fill and how much do you pay in order to fill these holes?
4. If you select a number of mid tier vets, why imagine the outcome will be any different?
5. If you select rookies (Smith, McNiel, Alonso etc), is it reasonable to expect them to perform under the stress of a small open window with controllable pitching?
6. How will he team get effectively younger and more athletic?
I never see any answers to how the team gets constructed besides the “impact bat and a pen arm”, and cant believe that really is the plan to overcome the concerns we see every day.
TJ look at how much money dead money is on the DL. Between Cespedes, Wright, d’Arnaud, Lagares, and A.J. Ramos it’s nearly 68 million dollars. Can add Vargas to the list since the Mets are not going to get anything for him. Can’t build a team with bad contracts. I was going to say limited resources but take a look at Tampa Bay’s payroll and where they are in the standings.
It has been clear for some time that first base is the only place on the field for Flores.Would he provide league average or better offense for a full season at that position?I don’t think so.
Right now, avg NL 1B has an .807 OPS and I bet it will go up a few points by the end of the year. And since Wilmer doesn’t add anything defensively or on the basepaths, you’s like to see him be better than league average. Can he do it? I’d say it’s possible but I certainly wouldn’t wager any money on it.
A pitcher is one person on the field. It is so much easier, and cheaper, to acquire a quality arm or even 2, than to solve giant black holes all over the rest of the diamond. A string of 5 CY winners will not result in a team better than .500 with the roster the Mets have. Just ask deGrom.
The Mets have legit questions at the following positions:
C (KP, really???????? A Mesoraco reprise????)
1B (Flores??? seriously)
2B (no clue, but presenly not a major leaguer that can be identified)
3B (surely not Frazier or Flores, or…….some unknown minor leaguer)
CF (neither conforto nor nimmo are post season quality CF)
Bull Pen (almost front to back)
Thats a lot of lifting. And if you go FA, Id love to get a projected cost estimate.
We win a few games (still no series) and all the sudden its like this team isnt bad. Its still terrible, nothing had changed.
I’ll add to your miseries Chris. Didn’t every MLB team get like a 50 million dollar payoff from BAMtech this year? I would expect payroll to go down next year. If Fred’s argument to his GM triad is there’s too much dead salaries on the DL every year. I would not disagree. Seems like the Mets constantly have key players out for extended periods. With no margin for error and very little in the pipeline where to go? FA? Next years payroll is already at 92+million dollars. Add another 30 – 35 from Arb hearings and you’re pretty much hamstrung (no pun intended). Hopefully Cespedes gets well enough and goes on a tear so the Mets can move him. Vargas does the same and adios him. Wright retires but goes to the FO. Frees up about 52 million.
Exactly Pete. But I think its beyond hopeful for Ces and Vargas, although we need to certainly have that hope.
But yes, this team has a grade 3 strain for 2019 finances already.
Flores’ consistent playing time at first has made him comfortable. Give him consistent playing time at second base, his favorite position, and you will see the same results. Flores is a smart player, but had become stubborn due to the jerking around he got. It seems that he just now is getting comfortable, he likes Callaway and the results are coming.
It’s wonderful how much attention everyone spends remembering each of Flores’ misplays and can’t remember any positives, like when playing in and jumping off the line due to holding a runner, he was able to spin back in mid-air to spear a line drive and reach for first base to complete a fantastic double play but we heard complaints about how he couldn’t just tag the runner instead. I mean, what do you people want? Do you even know?
I agree with Pete’s statement about the dead money, but that needs to be resolved slowly, not knee jerk.
And TJ makes a good point about the pitching. Problem is that the holes are several. Would love to get Vargas and Bruce playing in August and looking good to move those contracts.
Gus, the is no way flores will be anything other than a disaster at 2B. He cannot throw the ball, he has *no* range. You cant have the keystone be a rookie or someone trying to make it – and bench player out of position with a piano on his back. The number of extra outs from failed DPs alone will be staggering. Flores has worse range than Cabrera. Flores has a much worse arm than Cabrera. Flores is not as good a hitter as Cabrera. Id rather have a 32 yo Cabrera at 2B, and by some distance.
I dont care how much he wants to play there. The game is a million miles an hour too fast for him. He flat out sucks at any IF position, but the least suckage at 1B (where he is terrible by comparison with top quality teams).
Wilmer is batting quite well against right handed pitching this year, better than he has been hitting lefties
The guy doesn’t have a position and is the slowest runner on the team. Is his bat good enough to play first base every day? I don’t think so. Trade him Familia and Wheeler. Try to get a guy who can play CF.