The Mets have made two trades already as the non-waiver deadline approaches, sending impending free agents Jeurys Familia and Asdrubal Cabrera to greener pastures. For a while it looked like Zack Wheeler would be on the move, too, but the latest news says that one may not be imminent. MetsBlog’s Andy Martino reported this:
The basic problem is the Mets are valuing Wheeler based on how he is pitching now, and other teams are valuing him based on his inconsistent career. It has been harder to find a match than the Mets thought it would be. That could still change before Tuesday.
So while trade talks are ongoing, I would downgrade “any minute” to “still possible.”
There’s no reason for a trade partner to value Wheeler based on what he’s done the last two months or so. And there’s no reason for the Mets to let what happened in his last six starts of 2017 or his first seven starts of 2018 have them sell low on him. If a trade is to be made now, the overwhelming likelihood is that the Mets wouldn’t get a good enough return. It would satisfy those who like to see moves made for the sake of making moves. But for those who take a big picture view of things, a team’s 10th-best prospect – the rumored ballpark return – isn’t enough to make trading Wheeler worthwhile.
There’s no doubt that Wheeler has been incredibly frustrating throughout his career with the Mets. He missed two full seasons with TJ surgery, he pitched horribly before being shut down last year with a stress reaction in his pitching arm and even when healthy, he hasn’t been able to consistently pitch deep into the game.
But at the same time, we’ve seen stretches where he’s been really good. Before the TJ surgery, he had an 18-game stretch where he posted a 2.78 ERA with 109 Ks in 110 IP. Early last season we saw a 10-game stretch with a 2.98 ERA and a .671 OPS against. And now this year we’ve seen 10 straight starts where he’s limited batters to a .601 OPS and a .273 wOBA.
Perhaps the most encouraging thing about this latest stretch is that he seems to be trusting his stuff more and not nibbling so much. This has allowed him to pitch seven or more innings in four of his last six outings. Going back to his last 10 games, Wheeler has a 2.55 K/BB ratio and has allowed just 4 HR in his last 64.1 IP. That last one is particularly noticeable, since he had a problem with the gopher ball in the beginning of the year. After posting a 1.3 HR/9 rate in his first nine starts, he has a 0.6 mark here in his last 10 games.
The sixth overall pick in the 2009 Draft, Wheeler has always been about potential.
The pertinent question the Mets need to ask themselves is if he’s finally putting it all together now or is this nothing more than a tease, another stretch of good pitching only to be followed by some disastrous outings. One could make the argument that his two previous good stretches were ended by injuries, ones that perhaps were not diagnosed as soon as they should have been.
If the Mets trade Wheeler now and get a decent prospect and some international money and he finishes this year and next – the time he’s still under team control – with an ERA in the ballpark of his current 4.33 mark, then you can say that it was a fair deal, perhaps even a good one. But if he continues to put up a 3.50 ERA and a 3.40 FIP, well, that’s another matter entirely.
For some context, a 3.50 ERA would be the 12th-best mark in the NL this year and a 3.40 FIP would tie for the 7th-best mark in the league among qualified pitchers.
Since he still has another year of team control, there’s no need to rush to make a deal at less than desirable terms. And what’s the worst-case scenario if they hold onto him the rest of the year? He reverts to previous form and instead of a team’s 10th-best prospect you get their 20th? Is the dropoff in quality there worth the risk that Wheeler keeps up pitching like he’s had and you ended up trading a high-end SP2 or a low-end SP1 for a team’s 10th-prospect? Perhaps my internal risk-aversion equation is out of whack but that’s not a gamble to me that’s worth taking.
If you must make a deal, it seems logical to me to hold onto Wheeler and shop Steven Matz, a guy whose ERA looks good but whose peripherals do not, instead. Or deal one of the top two pitchers where you’re much more likely to get full value. It makes sense for the Mets to trade their impending free agents. They’re not going to give you much real value the rest of this rotten season and they’re not going to give you any value at all when games mean something again. But Wheeler has a real chance to deliver value in 2019. And if a team wants him now, they should have to pay the Mets’ value, not anything less.
Brian, agree 100%. I will be very unhappy to downright angry if they give away Wheeler for a small return, say a 5-10 ranked prospect. Even if the Mets can’t or don’t compete in 2919, Wheeler projects to be well worth his cost next year, and if he continues on the current trend line, he can be part of the long term solution via extension. He is younger than his age innings-wise. It only makes sense to deal him for a Gleyber Torres- like asset, but I agree that it is doubtful a trade partner will value him accordingly. So, keep the guy. It is very reasonable to expect him to perform like his recent past, even though we all realize predicting future performance is no sure thing.
Gleyber Torres, for Wheeler? Yikes. You’d need to be in the deGrom world for that kind of return. It’s stunning what value Mets fans think about the players on this team, and yet the team is terrible.
I know, its all injuries why we are this bad.
Chris,
I wasn’t valuing Wheeler equally with Gleyber Torres. The Yanks were very fortunate that the marketplace yielded that takent for a rental closer. My point was that it doesn’t make much sense to deal Wheeler, who is controllable through next season and an extension candidate, unless the return was a player highly likely to be an impact regular, and that is extremely unlikely. And, even so, there is risk. My recollection is that Rosario and Torres were ranked closely, and time will tell, but as of now Rosario is replacement level and Torres is a star. It’s very risky dealing proven MLB talent for even the top ranked prospects.
How many of deGrom, NS, Wheeler, and Matz can you envision on extending? What would be the priority? What kinds of extensions do you envision on “Wilponworld” (even stranger place than Westworld!) funding?
My problem with all this is that there are real financial constrictions. If all you do is extend these guys, then you have a remaining payroll that just gets you mid level FAs. We have seen year after year after year after year that such a plan is merit-less. I cannot envision doing the same thing again, cementing the rotation in place, and expecting a different outcome.
We have to solve a team problem.
Defense
Offense
Catching
Relief pitching.
I dont care if you have deGrom, Scherzer, Noah, Verlander, and Kershaw starting every day…there is *nowhere* near enough to make this team a winner.
If people believe in the magic of Wheeler and give a solid return, I think the Mets would be silly to pass.
Chris,
I don’t dispute any of what you say. And I am not opposed to dealing Wheeler, or DeGrom for that matter. All I am saying is that I am in no rush, same position as Brian and Gus below. A team’s #5 prospect won’t do it. They need to add depth, which means getting back multiple quality players for creating the hole in the rotation.
Regarding the money, I do not envision extending all 4. But school is still out on who. Wheeler could be their 2nd best. Heck, he could develop into the ace if DeGrom comes back to the pack.
I guess I have a much more granular feeling about this. For context, I think Wheeler is overall a joke, and Id trade him for what people would perceive as “underslot” just to have the burden released. This little balloon will pop. Im much more a believer in his total record, and no team looking to add him as more than a rental, will just purchase his contract based on the past 5-10 starts. Anyone assumes the responsibility of realistic injury, and his “regression to the mean”.
I dont see any chance Wheeler becomes a number 1 (or even #2) let alone an ace.
As for return, Im tired of the path weve been on and what seems to be the general plan in the MLB, namely just pick chips off the top no matter what position they play. For whatever reason, this team has been terrible at developing catchers, 2B, 3B, and CF. If a team had their #6 prospect be their best in any of those positions, I would move that way, even of they offered a number 4 prospect. I guess, I would evaluate every trade potential regardless of the prospect position. Close to MLB? years of control? premium position? All go into the equation.
TJ, I wrote last week that now is the time to extend Wheeler for a couple of years and an option at a team friendly rate. He has had some bad luck and is only making $1.9MM in his second to last year of arbitration. He would take a $2/20MM with a $12MM option to at least see his first good payday.
He’s a different Pitcher now, versus what I’ve seen before. This last 10 or so starts have been a combination of good health/talent and approach—that last factor is the greatest difference in anything he’s dones before.
Given the last two trades for 3 45man roster types—-that points directly at 2019. The bigger question is hoiw they’re gonna build around “The non-Expirings” in pursauit of 2019
Wheeler’s improved approach can probably be at least partially be credited to the Mickey Callaway/Dave Eiland program
Geesh, the guy is a 6 inning pitcher who always gets hurt! If you can get a couple of good prospects for him make a deal. A team’s 10th ranked prospect isn’t what I mean. I’m talking about a guy who is a eam’s 3 rd ranked prospect and another solid young player. Trade deadline means you get premium value for a ML starter with a year left on his contract,he is not a rental!
To Madman and the other MLB team:
If Wheeler is such a risk, why do you want him? If you aren’t going to value what he has turned into now, why do you want him?
I call Bullshit all the way around. Either pay the price or miss out. I don’t see a top 10 prospect as equal value. We just got a top 10 prospect from a very good system for a rental that doesn’t play defense. For Wheeler, either two top 50 guys at least and maybe some International money, or a good young offensive MLB player. Prospects are too shaky to be so highly regarded. How about Domingo Santana and Hiura from Milwaukee?
Since “Brian’s Vacation”, I’ve been reluctant to swipe at Ownership and Spending. Frankly, it might be lucky that Sandy’s Crew didn’t get to spend money, but I must say that I favor a Top 5 payroll for next year…keep the Pitchers and Pretend that you play in NY!!!!!
They don’t need to assume return of health or changes of position… get some talent here and guys will play if they’re healthy and if they’re productive. If Bruce is unplayable and Ces as well, big deal. I never hear that the Yankees are hampered by Ellsbury’s Salary.
The Mets need to check all Columns on the Talent front…including international and upper level Free Agents. Hire a Genius…Give him the Wallet.
Eraff,
Let’s go be Dodgers or Astros fans!
You are asking these leopards to change their spots, and that ain’t happening. The Coupons merely need to act like they are competing to get the suckers to buy tickets. Historically, they have only spent money when there is public pressure through the media or billboards. They are losers and act like losers.
The Mets make money and pretty sure they make plenty. We did a “back of an envelope” analysis during a game, and whether they are collecting insurance monies, MLB payouts, royalties, or attendance and commercial revenue, they never raise the spending bar unless the press gets on them and the radio stations get flooded with irate callers. Problem is that The Coupons don’t have to answer to anyone, so screw you, me, and everyone else.
I’m pleased to see that I didn’t jinx Wheeler with this column today. He has a 3.28 ERA in his last 13 games with 78 Ks and 25 BB in 82.1 IP
Unless you’re shooting at Long Top Prospects, the Wheeler Trade might work best in the off season. There is not a high gain ready to go positional player who will come back now—those guys are already attached to an MLB Roster on a Pennant Chase Team
I agree with Brian but I also agree with Chris F. Huh? Well, given ZW’s remaining salary for this year and likely forthcoming arb3 salary for next year, it’s not like we’d be saving a fortune. He looks like a reliable sp 2/3 now, but a) you can’t trust him to stay healthy and b) he is not a good candidate for an extension. It’s simple – if you get a nice offer, trade him. If not, keep him. We can’t treat him like Familia or Cabrera. He fills a rotation spot for next year that we’d have to add to the long list of holes to fill. I thought the smart play was to package him with Cabrera to Milwaukee as rumored and net several good prospects.
Ian Happ? Send Wheeler to the Cubs for Ian Happ. He’s a CFer, has some pop. Yeah, he strikes out too much but that’s the case with most players nowadays including class favorite Nimmo.