Jacob deGrom won the Cy Young Award, capturing 29 of the 30 first-place votes. Then in the MVP votes, it was deGrom’s turn to keep a player from being a unanimous selection. Christian Yelich got 29 out of 30 first-place votes, while deGrom picked up the remaining one. Should deGrom have been a unanimous Cy Young pick? Should he have gotten more support in the MVP race? Yelich had a 7.6 fWAR while deGrom had an 8.8 mark. Or should pitchers be restricted from MVP consideration?
I know it was more than the HBP for Ron Hunt and his current condition but I still think Brandon Nimmo should read this.
https://nypost.com/2018/11/15/beloved-mets-hard-nosed-play-has-turned-into-a-hard-life-from-beanings-to-parkinsons/
I’ve said this for a few years now, but i think that the ballot selections (including Hall of Fame) need to come with justifications.
These are writers that are voting? Surely it’s not unreasonable to expect them to articulate in a few sentences the reasons why they voted the way they did. They don’t need to explain their full ballot, but at least explain the top choice.
Then there could be some accountability for grossly unreasonable selections – maybe adopt a 3 strike you’re barred policy. I’m thinking this would apply more to HOF where we routinely see people leave first time players off ballots just cause they don’t want someone to get 100% – which is beyond stupid. Choosing a player based on wins however, while antiquated in the eyes of most, would not be considered unreasonable because there is historical precedence.
What I don’t understand about WAR: How did Aaron Nola match deGrom’s 10.0?
It wasn’t due to BA, as Nola hit .048 (vs. deGrom’s .164 in similar # of at bats).
Even stranger: under the Cy Young voting header, Nola’s WAR is 10.5 vs. deGrom at 9.6. Huh?
https://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/calculating-war-pitchers/
I was confused by this earlier in the year too because deGrom beats Nola in every rate stat and it basically comes down to the fact that Baseball ref think thats Nola pitched in a much more difficult park.
The way BRef does it’s bWAR calculation is to calculate what an average pitcher would have done versus what the pitcher did. Note: RA9 is ERA with unearned runs included.
The formula is (IP/9) * [Park factor /100 *(Opponent RA9 + Defense RA9 + SP adjustment) – Pitcher RA9]
Jake’s calculation (217/9) *[91.5 /100 * (4.47 + 0.41 +0.2) – 1.99] = 64 runs better than average.
Nola’s calculation (212/9) *[100.9/100 * (4.56 + 0.64 +0.2) – 2.42] = 72 runs better than average.
As you can see, while deGrom beats Nola in basic RA9 (1.99 vs 2.42), according to Bref, Nola faced better offenses( 4.56 to 4.47), had worse defense( 0.64 vs 0.41) and pitched in a harder ballpark(100.9 vs 91.5), which results in him allowing less runs than the average pitcher.
The key factor in this equation is really park factors. Citi field was extremely pitcher friendly this year which really hurts deGrom’s calculation and value, and that’s why Nola ends up with a higher bWAR than deGrom.
I know Matt wrote an article about the American League teams, but with the Padres wanting Thor, it’s a trade I have to make if I’m BVW. Tatis, Mejia, their top outfielder, their top pitcher and another arm would just about do it. It would load up the Mets for years. We all love Thor, but at some point we need to score runs also.
(Imagine if they hadn’t given away Trea Turner for a bad of Doritos and Will Myers)
As long as the award is called Most Valuable Player and not Best Hitter, I think pitchers deserve consideration. I think the awards need to be redefined somewhat. Having the best pitcher award named after the winningest pitcher now that wins are no longer considered the benchmark stat is problematic. Maybe it should be renamed the Bob Gibson award to signify the most dominant pitcher of the season. Cy Young had longevity and durability going for him. He was not even the most dominant pitcher of his era. Walter Johnson or Christy Mathewson have that distinction.
What, longevity and durability aren’t desirable? These days?
I am of the firm belief that there should be two equal awards, MVP and player of the year.
“Maybe it should be renamed the Bob Gibson award to signify the most dominant pitcher of the season.”
Maybe it should be renamed The Jacob deGrom Award, but I guess we’d have to wait until he retires