When the Mets drafted Brandon Nimmo back in 2011, many people were shocked that they took a guy who didn’t play high school baseball. Then, as injuries slowed his climb through the minor leagues and guys drafted after he made the majors and turned in successful seasons, the narrative developed that he was a bust. Then when he made the majors and showcased the ability to get on base – supposedly a priority for the club – at a high clip, the club went out and signed Jay Bruce to a three-year deal. Multiple injuries allowed Nimmo the chance to play a full season and he responded with a 150 OPS+, which was the highest mark for a qualifying Met player since David Wright put up a 156 mark in 2013.
So, how do the Mets and their fans discredit and dismiss Nimmo now? Why they make him available in seemingly every trade proposal. Last year he was going to the Pirates and this year he’s going to the Marlins or the Indians or some other destination. Now, to be fair, last year he was going to be dealt for Josh Harrison – the guy the Pirates just declined their team option on – while this year he’s being mentioned in return for All-Star caliber players. So, perhaps that’s progress of sorts.
Still, why are the Mets and their fans so willing to trade the guy who finished second in the National League (behind only the league MVP winner) in OPS+ when the club has legitimate offensive issues? If Michael Conforto put up a 150 OPS+ last year, he’d be every bit as untouchable in trades as Jacob deGrom. And before you bring up the connection between deGrom and the new GM, last June Joel Sherman reported that Nimmo hired CAA as his representatives, with Brodie Van Wagenen being one of his two lead agents.
There seems to be concern that Nimmo’s power output last year is unsustainable. After putting up a .171 ISO in parts of four seasons in Las Vegas, Nimmo produced a .220 ISO last year. Pretty much the last thing you would expect is that a guy who wasn’t particularly known for power in the hitter-friendly PCL would suddenly add about 50 points of ISO in his first full major league season. But Nimmo was viewed as a five-tool talent when drafted and he was relatively healthy last year, with only one short DL stint with a bruised finger when he was hit on the hand with a pitch.
The power seemingly has always been there and now he’s healthy and he’s tapped into it. In his first stint in Las Vegas in 2015, Nimmo had a FB% of just 21.1 which led to a .154 ISO. In his cup of coffee with the Mets in 2016, he had 28.3 FB% and in a more extended look in 2017, he posted a 32.8 mark. Then last year he had a 33.3 FB%. So, as he’s gotten more exposure against MLB pitching, he’s become more adept at hitting the ball in the air. Of course last year he posted a 17.5 HR/FB rate, compared to a league average 12.8 rate.
Among qualified hitters, Nimmo’s HR/FB rate ranked 35th in the majors, out of 140 players. Christian Yelich had a 35.0 rate to lead the majors. No doubt Nimmo had an elevated rate. But was it elevated to an extreme extent? And is it possible that this will be his new normal in the category? Reasonable people can disagree on this last question.
In addition to hitting more fly balls, Nimmo is also pulling the ball more and hitting more balls hard. In his brief major league career, Nimmo has seen his Pull% go from 30.2 to 32.5 to 44.7 and his Hard% go from 28.3 to 35.0 to 37.2 last year.
One could make the case that the first two MLB season are not a big enough sample size from which to draw any meaningful conclusions. But we’ve seen a first-round pick who put some injury problems behind him increase his ability to pull the ball, hit the ball in the air and hit the ball hard. It seems there would be more to worry about with the HR/FB rate if those other rates were staying the same or declining.
Should baseball fans be more worried about Yelich, who went from a 25.2 FB% to a 23.0 rate and a 15.3 HR/FB to a 35.0 rate or Nimmo and his rates detailed above?
Nimmo will turn 26 next March and should be entering the prime of his MLB career. While he may not put up another 150 OPS+ season in 2019, he should still be counted on to put up strong offensive numbers. Here are how some other homegrown stars of the Mets did in their age 25 and age 26 seasons, with a minimum of a 125 OPS+ in age 25:
| Player | Age 25 OPS+ | Age 26 OPS+ |
|---|---|---|
| Cleon Jones | 137 | 151 |
| Lee Mazzilli | 126 | 96 |
| Darryl Strawberry | 162 | 165 |
| Edgardo Alfonzo | 125 | 147 |
| David Wright | 142 | 124 |
Only Mazzilli failed to follow up with another strong season and that year he battled shoulder and hip injuries. And his age 26 season was also the strike-shortened year of 1981 and those two factors limited him to just 376 PA, down from 668 in his age 25 season. And how short this list is should make us appreciate Nimmo even more
No player should be considered untouchable and Nimmo certainly falls into this category. But while he should be available in the right deal, that shouldn’t mean trading him is something you would undertake lightly. Nimmo should be looked at as a highly-desirable building block on talent alone and then when you factor in his status as a pre-arb player, he only becomes more valuable.
Players in Trade conversations are not necessarily being shopped… kimmo is being Sought After
Thank you! To me, the two untouchables are Conforto and Nimmo, in that order, particularly when looking at the prospects on the farm – no outfielders in sight. I find it interesting that of the trio of Conforto, Nimmo, and Rosario, all of whom are mentioned as a ‘centerpiece’ of a trade for Realmuto, the majority of the comments are “don’t trade Rosario” – he is about to blossom. Nimmo and Conforto already did blossom into top hitters, and there is no one behind them to come up in the next year (or three).
He’s included in trade talks because he has perceived value and is desired. No one wants Rosario because he’s stunk so far. From the Mets perspective, he’s talked about because certain positions are easier to replace via free agency than other ones.
I believe you were singing the same tune about Gsellman after his short sample 2016 season and he’s turned into a dud, so it doesn’t always work out. If someone is wiling to value him like a top 5 OF and you think he’ll regress to the 20-30 range, then trading him makes sense.
yup.
Trading him depends on what you get back and how and who you backfill him with. Is the team better with Nimmo and let’s say Ramos or Realmuto and his replacement?
There are too many moving parts to say trade him or not.
In my view, Nimmo is part of the core. Trading him would create not just a hole in the OF, but one atop the lineup. He is by far our best option in the leadoff spot. My concern with him, and Conforto, is that they need to improve against lefties. Either could leap to All Star status with that improvement. I also think Nimmo’s energy is a great intangible the team feeds off of.