Each year with the predictions column I start by going back to the previous year’s piece. The goal is to get more than 50 percent right, while not making boring predictions. Not once in all of the years of doing this have more turned out right than wrong. Out of last year’s batch, only four were correct. However, it was essentially six. My prediction of when Adrian Gonzalez would be cut missed by all of 10 days while my forecast of Jason Vargas having fewer than 20 starts missed by one start, as he had 20. Still, six is less than half of the 15 things that were offered.
But you can’t be afraid to be wrong. No one wants to read a bunch of predictions like “the Mets will have a guy come down with a season-ending injury.” So here are a group of predictions that will range from head tilting to eyebrow-raising to outright aggressive. But these are all things I believe will happen, not ones made simply to be controversial.
1. Wilson Ramos hits more homers than Gary Carter (24) in 1986.
2. While he starts the year in the majors, Pete Alonso ends up spending some time in Syracuse and Mets still end up with the extra year of control.
3. Despite playing in at least 100 games this year, Robinson Cano posts a lower fWAR (2.9) than he did in 80 games last season.
4. After leading MLB with 22 HBP last year, Brandon Nimmo has half that number this season.
5. Michael Conforto becomes just the 10th player in team history with at least 500 PA to finish the year with a .400 or better wOBA.
6. Jacob deGrom finishes with at least 17 wins, the second-most by a Mets pitcher this century.
7. Zack Wheeler leads the team in IP.
8. Opposing batters record an OPS under .600 against Noah Syndergaard.
9. Steven Matz allows 10 more SB than Syndergaard.
10. After amassing just 4 QS in 2018, Vargas will notch 10 in 2019.
11. Seth Lugo spends the entire year in the bullpen and does not make a single start.
12. Jeurys Familia posts a better ERA (2.88) and WHIP (1.230) than he did last year with the Mets.
13. The Mets will have at least five players with 500 PA, after having just three last year, two in 2017 and three in 2016.
14. After using 29 different pitchers in 2017 and 30 last year, the Mets will not exceed 23 pitchers.
15. The Mets achieve at least 40 wins versus NL East competition.
I love it.
Noah Syndergaard connects all of the dots, wins 18 games and wins the NL Cy Young award.
Vargas gets bombed and is out of the rotation by June.
Alonso has a very Strawberry like rookie year with 26 HR and 74 RBI.
Rosario improves and steals 30 bases.
Who goes on the 15 game DL first ? Its Cano with a pulled muscle.
Cespedes does not make it back in 2019.
The Mets win 87 games in a tough division and fall short of the playoffs.
1. Matz has a sub 2 era in the 2nd half
2. Mets win the division by more than 5 games
3. Rosario has double digits in triples and home runs, and swipes 30 bases
4. The Mets have at least 3 players hit .300 (I’ll go with McNeil, Cano, Ramos)
5. DeGrom repeats for CY Young
6. The 5 main starters make between 130-135 starts and have a collective ERA sub 3
7. Pete Alonso leads the team in doubles and home runs
8. Dom Smith is traded
9. D’arnaud is released
10. Conforto has a higher OPS than Harper
I’ll agree with Brian’s 5,8,10-14.
I’ll agree with Bloom’s 3,4,6,8, and 10.
I’ll add that Alsonso will hit the longest HR in Citifield history.
Two Met pitchers will hit HR this season.
Rosario will post a positive DRS and UZR.
Wilmer will hit an HR against the Mets at Citifield and get a curtain call (and dedicate it to Gus).
A Met starter will throw a no-hitter.
Mickey Callaway will have a perfect record in line-up card/batting order execution.
And, last but not least, the Mets will celebrate the 50th anniversary of their 1969 World Series vicotry with a parade of their own in the Canyon of Heros.
🙂
You’re the best TJ! I agree with all of them!
It is that time of year for unbridled optimism,so I will throw my two cents into the prediction lotto.
1. Vargas is more than serviceable at the back of the rotation and by mid-year is really the #4 guy.
2. Matz never comes around and end up on the DL and/or is traded. But Oswalt comes up to replace him and has a breakthrough second half.
3. Smith gets enough playing time to be a decent trade asset. He ends up doing quite well and is a borderline all-star for someone for several years. But that’s OK because Alonso just mashes.
4. McNeil and Nimmo both come back to earth but are very solid. Nimmo is a top 15 WAR player in the NL and McNeil flirts wiht .300 all year, getting 400 PAs.
5. Cano and Conforto are in the MVP discussion. NY tabloids nickname them Cap’n Crunch. (Or the C-Notes. Or Cang Cong. LOL)
6. Ramos makes the AS team as a replacement for Realmuto who can’t play because of injury
7. Rosario emerges as a top-ten SS
8. The bullpen is outstanding. Wilson underperforms, but Lugo and Avilan overperform. Diaz and Familia are a lights out combo, shortening the game to 6-7 innings.
9. TDA stays off the IL all year long and hits well as a back-up.
10. Harper is getting booed in Philly by the ASB.
My take:
1. I will start by saying that my best friend from New York – that doesn’t do blogs – told me he thinks the Mets will get Bumgarner after the all-star break. That’s what I said to you folks a month ago!
2. Steven Matz will get hurt and Flexen will do well as a fill-in.
3. Mets will renew Wheeler at 4/$58MM during the season.
4. Alonso will be in AAA before the end of April.
5. Smith will start the most games at 1B of any player on the roster.
6. Cespedes will return to the team around the all-star break, be mediocre in the regular season, but just go berserk during the playoffs.
7. Cano gets rested every sixth game and has a batting slash of .312/.354/.478 in 132 games.
8. Familia replaces Diaz as the closer.
9. Mets trade Conforto (who hit 31 HRs but only .256) after the season to Mariners for Kelenic and another prospect.
10. The NL East has four teams with winning records and two playoff teams, the Mets and the wild card Nationals.
Impressed by the Predictions.
Regarding the deGrom prediction, “Jacob deGrom finishes with at least 17 wins, the second-most by a Mets pitcher this century.” —- I feel that’s rushing the “This Century” language.
Perhaps you can look at it this way – Why use four words to say what can be said in two?
Brian I liked your last item about at least 40 wins within the division. That would mean they are over .500 in the division that many consider the toughest in MLB. They could easily be 10 games under as even the marlins always play us tough. Got the DVR all set for this afternoon. Hope there is something good to watch. Let’s get this party started.
Im in for 1, 2, 13, 15.
Otherwise, you got yourself a string of “crazy predictions” for the podcast (and everyone not listening, shame on you, the Mets360 podcast is awesome) for weeks to come!
If #15 is accurate a 40-55 record in the East will almost certainly gain us the top draft pick in2020!
They don’t play 95 games against the NL East.
My two predictions:
1. The Mets will have a guy come down with a season-ending injury.
2. Of all the submissions here, I will have the fewest incorrect predictions.