Jason Vargas was a much maligned SP for the Mets back in April, but he has made quite a turnaround and has become perhaps the best number 5 rotation man in the Eastern Division, and one of the best (but not the best) in the entire National League.
After a good first outing against Miami, things went south quickly for Vargas, a low point was April 13 against the Braves when he lasted but a third of an inning and yielded four earned runs. He looked more like he was auditioning to be a batting practice pitcher than a number five starter, but the crafty lefty has righted the rails.
Let’s look at his season stats. He has posted a 3-3 record with a 3.74 ERA in 11 starts and 55.1 IP. Hitters are batting .236 against him, and he has a 1.34 WHIP and a strikeout ratio of 7.16 per nine innings. He even has complete game victory this year. Not great stats, overall, but pretty good compared to what the number five pitcher is producing for most teams.
Now we’ll compare Vargas’ stats with the other fifth starters in the division. First place Atlanta has used Mike Foltynewicz in that role. He has a 2-5 record and a 5.53 ERA in 10 starts, coincidently with 55.1 IP, the same as Vargas. He has a 1.38 WHIP and is racking up 7.8 K’s per nine innings. Vargas is better this year.
The Phillies have employed Nick Pivetta as their fifth man in the rotation. Pivetta has a good 4-1 won – loss record, but a high ERA of 5.00 in eight starts and 45 IP. His WHIP is 1.40, with 8.6 batters struck out per nine innings. In fairness Pivetta has been pitching better of late, but for overall record this year Vargas is doing better.
Jeremy Hellickson has been the fifth SP for the Washington Nationals this season. He has won two and lost three, with an ugly ERA of 6.23. In his eight starts and 39 IP he has compiled a 1.72 WHIP and 6.9 K per 9 rate. Hellickson is having a bad year and Vargas has pitched much better than him so far this season.
The only team left in the East is the Marlins, and in their case, we have to dig a little to find the true number 5 starter. Technically Caleb Smith is fifth in IP and starts in Miami’s rotation, but that is only because he got hurt earlier this month and has been on the IL. Smith has actually been among the leagues’ leaders in several pitching categories. The pitcher who is fourth is Jose Urena, who also has missed time, and he is on the 60 day IL. Thus we will use Pablo Lopez as the Marlin’s fifth starter.
Lopez has gone 5 and 5 with a 4.23 ERA in 14 starts, with 76.2 IP. His WHIP is 1.12, and his strikeout rate per 9 IP is 6.1. It’s close between Vargas and Lopez, but the fact that Vargas is about a half run better in ERA is enough to give him the edge.
There is one fifth starter in the league that is clearly better than Vargas, and that is Rich Hill of the Dodgers. He has a 4-1 record with a 2.60 ERA in nine starts over 52 IP. His WHIP is 1.14 with a K/rate of 10.2 per nine, excellent for a non-power pitcher.
Even if he is not the best fifth man in the rotation for the league, Vargas has turned into a pleasant surprise for the Mets. His fastball velocity may only average in the mid 80’s, among the lowest for any pitchers in the league, but he gets the job done.
Vargas has been one of the feel-good stories this year. In his last 19 starts, he’s had just one bad outing.
The Mets hold an option on him for 2020. If he’s not dealt at the deadline, there’s a decent chance he could be here next year, too.
I don’t think he is a real good candidate to be traded at the deadline, mainly because of limited market. A fifth starter, like Vargas would be on any good team, is not much value in the post season, with the days off usually just 4 SP are needed.
I admit it. I maligned Vargas. Now, maybe we could get a prospect for him at the deadline. Might as well sell high.
As a fifth starter Vargas has exceeded expectations. This is what happens in sports and life, balance. Of course this comes in the same year as deGrom and Noah underperforming.