Despite another ugly June that saw the Mets crumble under the weight of the toughest part of their schedule, they still had a puncher’s chance as the calendar flipped to July. But instead of taking advantage of their cream puff July schedule and going on a run like the San Francisco Giants have, the Mets stopped hitting just as their pitchers hit their stride.
With the hard trade deadline looming Wednesday, the Mets sit in fourth place in the NL East at eight games under .500, eight games out of the wildcard and a nearly insurmountable 12.5 games behind the first place Braves. There will be no meaningful games in September, let alone hope of an extended season into October. It’s time to turn the page to 2020.
If ownership was less short-sighted, we might have started a rebuild last winter under former Rays executive Chaim Bloom. Instead they bought into the bluster of “win now and in the future” that the former agent Brodie Van Wagenen trumpeted. An ill-advised trade, some bad free agent signings and a few injuries later, here we are. So, what now? Van Wagenen has three directions he can go in.
Option A: Blow it up.
This one would be a tough sell to both ownership and the fan base. Regardless, of what you think of the overall roster, few would argue with the idea that 2019 All-Stars Jacob deGrom, Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil are untouchable building blocks. Throw in the fact that our two highest paid players are completely untradeable, and you quickly realize that a tear down is virtually impossible. Plus there are two huge obstacles to a rebuild – Fred Wilpon’s age and Van Wagenen’s ego.
Option B: Retool for 2020
This is the likely approach, though it’s not the right one (more on that in a minute). This is the short-sighted one, typical of the Mets under Wilpon ownership. Trade off pending free agents – in this case Zack Wheeler, Todd Frazier, and Jason Vargas – for payroll savings and whatever prospects you can get in return. Maybe listen on offers for guys with two years of control – namely Noah Syndergaard and possibly Michael Conforto and see what kind of offers you get.
Option C: Focus on 2021
The Mets need a two-year plan. After next year, Yoenis Cespedes and his $29 million salary will come off the books. So will the salaries of Jed Lowrie (remember him?), Wilson Ramos and Jason Vargas (if the Mets pick up his option). Mookie Betts, George Springer, J.T. Realmuto, and Andrelton Simmons will be free agents. After next year, Anthony Kay will no longer be a rookie and will be entrenched in the rotation.
The Mets can be competitive in 2020, especially if they improve at their two weakest positions – catcher and manager. The Mets rotation is too talented to give up on because of one uneven year. We have four homegrown, very talented starting pitchers who’ve all struggled to adapt to a catcher who can’t frame, block pitches in the dirt or throw out runners. They also have a bad defense behind them. This is not cause for breaking up the band. The bullpen has struggled for the same reasons and more so because they are mishandled by a manager who has no absolutely no idea how to handle the late innings. It’s just one fan’s opinion, but the Mets can improve by 10 games just by replacing Ramos and Mickey Callaway. And they could improve another five games by improving the defense and not having so many guys playing out of position.
The Mets should listen at the trade deadline. No one other than the All-Stars should be untouchable. But this pitching staff can win. And this lineup, when healthy, could be a lot better. Don’t forget, by this time, our top three in the order were supposed to be Brandon Nimmo, Jed Lowrie and Cespedes. The Mets could make the playoffs in 2020, if they retool the right way and not make rash decisions.
Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard are our guys. Arms like that don’t grow on trees. With the right catcher and the right pitching coach, either could win a Cy Young Award. Who the heck wants to see them do that in another jersey? Unless they’re blown away by an offer, the Mets should hang on to both, and Jason Vargas for that matter. This is the right starting five that they can win with and the bullpen will come around. The key is to get rid of the two common threads among all the underachieving pitchers – Calllaway and Ramos. And yes, it’s worth offsetting Ramos’ salary and it’s worth having an interim manager. If neither fits into the 2020 plans, say good-bye now. It’s addition by subtraction.
Whichever direction the Mets go in, the one obvious move is trading Todd Frazier. Moving Frazier opens the door for McNeil to move back to the infield where he clearly belongs. Dom Smith and J.D. Davis (neither of whom should be traded unless blown away) can split left field and fill in occasionally at first and third. The other moves they make or don’t make should be done with one eye on 2020 and the other on 2021.
Blow 10 Less Saves!!!!!!….. That’s the first and easiest way to gain 10 games!!!
c’mon People!!!!
Buried Money in Cespedes, etc. is Old News– BigMarketUp and Move forward!
The crappy SP performance didn’t Pox the Season. The Puppet in the Dugout didn’t pox the season. Wilson Ramos is an 80-100 game Catcher—that’s what He is. He’ll play and hit better with that in Mind…..He Did Not Pox the Season!
Bullpen….Bullpen…Bullpen!!!!!!!!
Major repositioning Trades and Moves in the Off Season. Extend Wheeler Now.
Otherwise, Clear it out with only Alonso as the exception— Conforto, Jake….everyone on the block—That’s a Rebuild.
This team can win in 2020 with the right approach
+1
I’m not one for making up trades but this keeps popping in my head. Cespedes, Smith for Greinke straight up with no salary help being tossed in by Arizona. The D’Backs get a potential player that has been misused and can go back to concentrating on hitting at first base. Cespedes will play his butt off playing for a new contract. Smith isn’t going to move Alonso from first base and goes back to his natural position. Instead of cleaning house how about a new approach to the players the Mets have? Instead of trying to make players do what the team wants them to do, why not accept a players capabilities for what they are best suited for? I’m talking about the pen and the misuse of the relievers this year. A new year. A new manager. A new hope?
I think Cespedes (like Cano) would have to involve move to DH.
Interesting idea, Pete, but I don’t think AZ would do it during the season since they still have a more realistic shot at the wildcard than the Mets do and Greinke would probably pitch that game. I do like the thought, though. Also, the Wilpons know insurance will cover most of Cespedes salary this season, so the Mets would have to be willing to take on a lot of salary for the rest of the season just to know they could trot out a starting rotation (order TBD) of Jake, Noah, Steven, Zach, and Zack, assuming they give him a QO, next season. Maybe AZ would take Vargas, too, in the deal.
Once Cespedes suffered a non baseball related injury that resulted in his missing the rest of the season the insurance company will no longer continue to pay out the compensation from the time of the injury. Falling off a horse is not baseball related. So the Wilpons have to cover for the remainder of this year. Now that is truly dead money.
I think falling off the horse, while convalescing his heel surgeries, is the most likely scenario.
From the moment he played American baseball, he would not be told what he could and could not do.
Wilpons must burn over this contract.
“…there are two huge obstacles to a rebuild – Fred Wilpon’s age and Van Wagenen’s ego.”
Well said.
I wonder where the son fits in to this equation. Since neither father nor son speaks much, it’s difficult to discern.
However, I predict BVW will make a statement similar to the following, after he makes or does not make a trade at the deadline:
“We decided that this move was the most effective and efficient manner in which we could support our mission statement now and moving forward for our fan base as we support the players’ goals in the realization of our mission statement.”
…as journalists scratch their heads & curse under their collective breath.
LOL, if BVW makes a statement like that, he should never be taken seriously again in his life. When you can’t stand before the world and explain yourself, you’re a joke.
Well, I took those words from his statements…
I’m with you. He should not stand before us representing the Mets.
“The Mets rotation is too talented to give up on because of one uneven year. We have four homegrown, very talented starting pitchers who’ve all struggled to adapt to a catcher who can’t frame, block pitches in the dirt or throw out runners. They also have a bad defense behind them. This is not cause for breaking up the band.”
A fascinating thought provoking article.
The wildcard of it all is BVW ego’s need to
“Make a splash.”
The selfie GM needs to go.
Game Log for Vargas…. the Age is only a little scary, as he’s a finesse guy.
In his last 15 starts, he’s 3 runs or less 14 times…. 2 or less 9 Times!
I don’t love the guy….. doesn’t seem like he’l be a propect hauler.
What would we “Fix” by Trading Him????
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=vargaja01&t=p&year=2019
I agree with Eraff that the pen is the top culprit, but blowing 10 less saves is easier said than done. The Mets are as thin in upper level pitching prospects as any team in baseball. Yes, they have some good young players, but their NL East opponents have more.
That said, the selling at this point needs to be based on return value. No one seems to want Frazier, but he should not block younger guys at this point. Dealing Syndergaard is iffy but market conditions may drive that move. I am I advocate of dealing elite pitching, but if the current climate brings back quality value, 3 premium prospects that can contribute in 2020, then do it.
I think the Mets should blow it up and move forward towards the future with deGrom, Alonso and McNeill as the players to build around.
I am partial in my views towards trades. If we are going to trade Syndergaard, I think we need to get back players that can contribute within a year or two. I like him going to the Yankees for Clint Frazier and Deivi Garcia.
I read about rumors with discussions with the Twins and They mentioned Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff. I do not like these A ball prospects. Too far out and too risky.
I have to gulp, because I just have this feeling that BVW will screw it up.
You cannot replace the Noah/Vargas innings with the 18-20 million they will cost next year. If you add Wheeler to that, you’re losing about 550 innings, and it cannot be replaced for 35-40 million dollars ….and if you’re not replacing it, why in the hell are you keeping deGrom????
Sign Wheeler……. Spend some money…make winter trades….. re-tool to win…. or Blow it out—either way, have a real plan.
Trade Todd…whatever……. but you’re either re-loading or clearing All of it….Alonso is the sole untouchable.
Ramos got off to a miserable start and his performance from mid April to early May cost the team on both sides of the plate. But how much longer are we going to hold that poor three-week stretch against him? It’s like claiming that Granny was a stiff because of his miserable start and then forgetting what he did the rest of the year.
In his last 55 games, 202 PA, Ramos has an .805 OPS. Last year the Mets got a combined .652 OPS from their catchers. He’s provided a nice upgrade. Also in that time he’s gotten great results from deGrom and Vargas. Wheeler’s xFIP is nearly identical to a season ago. He no longer catches Syndergaard. Are we going to crucify him for not getting consistent results from Matz? The next catcher who does that will be the first.
My opinion is that the vitriol directed towards Ramos far exceeds what he deserves.
I believe the frustration with losing has many of us very unhappy…… I’ll hold my own position that they’ve been more unlucky than Poorly Planned.
That’s not a wholesale endorsement, but I believe it’s reality
Good points. Agreed. Much bigger problems than Ramos.
Additionally, Vargas should not be given away. Especially if Syndergaard is deal. As Eraff notes, lots of innings there. With the $2 million buyout, Vargas true cost for 2020 is $6 mil to Mets. Dare I say that is good value, and he could have trade value as well should they decide to go in another direction.
Now Frazier should not have another Met AB after July 31. Nothing against him, but Mets need to play controllable pieces ahead of him.
Brian- In 73 games, Ramos has allowed 63 steals while throwing out just 11 runners. He has 10 passed balls and made 5 errors. His .721 OPS does not make up for that.
Contrast this to Yasmani Grandal- the one that got away. In 83 games he’s allowed 46 SBs while picking off 18. He’s allowed 6 PBs and 4 Es. Oh, and he has an .876 OPS.
How about Diaz to the Dodgers for Keibert Ruiz. Lugo can be the closer. That covers catcher.
Diaz is an all-star, I don’t want just one prospect. No such thing as a sure thing.